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Civil and Environmental Engineering

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Presentation on theme: "Civil and Environmental Engineering"— Presentation transcript:

1 Civil and Environmental Engineering
Hydrologic modeling and prediction at continental scales: Model development and applications Dennis P. Lettenmaier Civil and Environmental Engineering CEE 500 Seminar December 2, 2004

2 Outline of this talk “Who we are, what we do”
Macroscale hydrologic model development and testing Selected model applications Arctic hydrology Historic drought analysis Westwide hydrologic forecasting

3 LAND SURFACE HYDROLOGY RESEARCH GROUP 2004
Jenny Adam Ali S. Akanda Kostas Andreadis Ted Bohn Elizabeth Clark Mariza Costa-Cabral Su Fengge Alan Hamlet Jordan Lanini Dennis Lettenmaier Nathalie Voisin Andrew Wood Seung-Oh Yu Qianru Zeng Chunmei Zhu

4 2) Macroscale hydrologic model development and testing

5

6 Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Macroscale Hydrology Model

7 Investigation of forest canopy effects on snow accumulation and melt
Measurement of Canopy Processes via two 25 m2 weighing lysimeters (shown here) and additional lysimeters in an adjacent clear-cut. Direct measurement of snow interception

8 Calibration of an energy balance model of canopy effects on snow accumulation and melt to the weighing lysimeter data. (Model was tested against two additional years of data)

9 Summer 1994 - Mean Diurnal Cycle
Point Evaluation of a Surface Hydrology Model for BOREAS SSA Mature Black Spruce NSA Mature Black Spruce SSA Mature Jack Pine -100 100 300 Rnet -50 50 150 250 H 60 120 LE 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 Rnet H LE 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 Rnet H LE 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 Flux (W/m2) Local time (hours) Observed Fluxes Simulated Fluxes Rnet Net Radiation H Sensible Heat Flux LE Latent Heat Flux

10 Range in Snow Cover Extent
Observed and Simulated Eurasia North America J F M A S O N D Month Observed Simulated 4 8 12 16 20 snow cover extent (10 6 km 2 ) 10

11 UPPER LAYER SOIL MOISTURE
June 18th-July 20th, 1997 UPPER LAYER SOIL MOISTURE 0.40 0.10 0.20 0.30 SOIL MOISTURE (%) X TOPLATS regional ESTAR distributed TOPLATS distributed 11:00 CST JULY ESTAR TOPLATS 50 10 11:00 CST JUNE 20, 1997 Illinois soil moisture comparison

12 Mean Normalized Observed and Simulated Soil Moisture
Central Eurasia, 20°E 30°E 40°E 50°E 60°E 70°E 80°E 90°E 100°E 110°E 120°E 130°E 140°E 40°N 50°N 60°N A B C D E F G H 100 200 Soil Moisture (mm) J M S O N Normalized Observed Simulated

13 Cold Season Parameterization -- Frozen Soils
Key Observed Simulated 5-100 cm layer 0-5 cm layer

14 3) Selected model applications

15 a) Arctic hydrology

16 b) Continental U.S. drought analysis

17 c) Westwide hydrologic forecasting

18 Ongoing/planned work Arctic freshwater balance reconstruction and trend attribution Westwide forecast applications – extension to include assimilation of remote sensing data (esp. snow cover extent), increased forecast frequency (to weekly updates), inclusion of shorter lead times (7-14 days) Drought recovery analysis Global applications (and linkage with surface water mission proposal)

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