Campaign Season Belief & Behaviors

How do people play a role in choosing the president? Beliefs & Behaviors Campaigns How do people play a role in choosing the president?

Primaries Beliefs & behaviors

Campaigns Primaries Primary A single state, single party election where voters state their preference for that party’s nominee for an election We have primaries for almost all levels of elections. Primaries serve as a form of a run off to help us narrow it down to 1 Republican and 1 Democrat People pay attention to presidential primaries and not much to others.

Campaigns Primaries Primary This election is run by the party. They make the rules. The state party organization makes decisions about the primary Party members cast their ballot to show which candidate they prefer

Campaigns Primaries Primary The primary decides how many “delegates” are awarded to the winning nominee Some states give all the delegates to the winner, others split them up proportionally Delegates are votes (like an Electoral Vote) but are also actual people.

Campaigns Primaries Primary Selects a nominee Limits the choices of voters Bring the party members together behind a candidate

Campaigns Primaries Delegates People chosen to go to the party’s convention and officially cast their ballots for the candidate there The people that go have been loyal party members for a long time, voting, campaigning, donating money Making them a delegate is a reward for their loyalty

Campaigns Primaries Primary Season All states are scheduled sometime between January & June. States at the beginning get the most attention Delegates are awarded in each state, and the candidates try to collect 51% of all the delegates in the country

Campaigns Primaries The “Invisible Primary” The months leading up to the first caucuses and primaries where the candidates raise money and gauge popularity Candidates who raise money slower or come in low in the polls are likely to quit before the first contests or right after This helps to narrow down the field before voting even starts

Campaigns Primaries New Hampshire Primary New Hampshire always has the first primary. It’s in their constitution that their primary is a week before any other state’s first primary. Candidates campaign in New Hampshire for months approaching the primary. The media does hundred of polls, they use the NH Primary to predict the rest of the election

Campaigns Primaries New Hampshire Primary The candidate that wins the NH Primary will likely get a lot of support in the following primaries Voters are susceptible to the bandwagon effect. If someone wins early, they seem like a “winner” and more voters support them. Many candidates will drop out right after this contest if they finished with a lower percentage of votes than they thought

Campaigns Primaries Super Tuesday A Tuesday in February or March where many states all around the country hold their primary on the same day Usually it’s around 12 primaries and sometimes as much as 20% of the country’s delegates are at state Usually (not 2008 or 2016) after Super Tuesday, it’s already clear who the two nominees will be.

Campaigns Primaries Front Loading A trend where states are moving their primaries earlier and earlier to try and get more attention They get tons of media attention if they have one of the early primaries They get more visits from the candidates because those primaries are seen as more important. They parties may like this because they get to establish a front runner earlier

Campaigns Primaries Open Primary Closed Primary Any one can choose which party’s primary they want to vote in on the day of the election Only registered party members can vote in the election. They have to be registered with the party in advance Increases voter turnout Decreases voter turnout More people participate, including moderates Ensures that only loyal party members have a role in choosing the nominee for the party Can lead to voter “sabotage” – members of the other party voting for candidates that would be easy to beat

Campaigns Primaries Nonpartisan Primary Also called a “blanket primary” All candidates are listed without their party identification All candidates of any party participate in the same primary Not used in presidential primaries – usually in local elections to narrow down the choices

Caucuses Beliefs & behaviors

Campaigns Caucus Caucus Plays all the same roles as a primary To compete, candidates rely more on a large organization and strategy Also awards delegates for the convention A much older way of choosing the party’s nominee

Voters discuss and debate the candidates before having an open vote Campaigns Caucus Caucus Party members meet in one place in their community (church, school, etc.) Voters discuss and debate the candidates before having an open vote If no candidate has a majority, the lowest is eliminated, and it the process begins again. This goes on and on until one candidate has 51% of the voters in the place

Campaigns Caucus Caucus Caucuses take a lot of time and effort for the voter. Only the most die hard party members will participate in the caucus Voters have been recruited by the campaigns to advocate for the candidates at each caucus meeting Way fewer people are willing to do this, so less people participate in a caucus

Campaigns Caucus Iowa Caucus Is the first presidential nominating contest every election cycle Takes place a week before the New Hampshire Primary Winning is important for bandwagon effect, but since it’s a caucus in Iowa, it rewards better strategy instead of overall popularity Candidates often win this contest and do not go on to much success in the primaries

Campaigns Caucus vs Primaries Primary Caucus Easy on voters. They come. They vote. They leave. Could be 10 minutes Takes a big time commitment from voters. Could be several hours. They debate, vote, repeat. Increases voter turnout Decreases voter turnout Gives voters complete control over who is the nominee Gives party leaders and organizers a bigger role in choosing the candidate Most states use this Very few states do this, usually smaller ones

Campaigns Beliefs & behaviors

Campaigns Campaign Campaigns All about analyzing voter data and making predictions Have to find the best ways to reach voters who can be swayed Get to test the best ways to articulate your message

Campaigns Campaign High Tech Media Campaigns Television is the main way candidates try to reach voters Candidates are now almost entirely dependent on the media to reach voters As of 2012, only 15% of Americans use the internet to find campaign material

Internet has changed candidate approach to fund raising Campaigns Campaign Internet Fund Raising Internet has changed candidate approach to fund raising Howard Dean (2004) and Barack Obama (2008) shifted to online fundraising If you can get small donations with little effort from average voters, it will end up matching donations of large donors It’s as easy to raise $10 from 250 voters as it is to locate and recruit one big $2500 donor

Parties keep lists of people who have donated to candidates Campaigns Campaign Direct Mail Parties keep lists of people who have donated to candidates New candidates use these lists to find voters who may donate to their campaigns Still the most effective means of finding donors. Takes little effort & money, but does generate returns.

Campaigns Campaign Campaign Roles Campaign Manager – oversees the entire campaign & staff Fund Raiser – Researches, locates, and recruits people who will donate Counsel – lawyer who oversees the compliance with FEC rules Pollsters – campaigns make their own public opinion polls Data Analysts – research all historical voting data to find potential voters Volunteers – do the street level work of the campaign

Bigly Ideas Beliefs & Behaviors

History Wrap Up Polling Process Straw Polls Exit Polls Problems with Polls Focus on these things: