Elections and Voting Behavior Government in America: People, Politics, and Policy Thirteenth AP* Edition Edwards/Wattenberg/Lineberry Chapter 10 Elections and Voting Behavior Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008 Bellringer 2/28 If the presidential election is thrown into the House of Representatives, A. each state’s House delegation may cast only one vote, regardless of its number of representatives. B. each state’s House delegation may case as many votes as it has electoral votes C. each House member has one vote and majority rules D. the House vote is subject to veto by the president E. each House member has one vote but a 60% majority is required to win the presidency Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008 Elections Elections have legitimacy, a widely shared belief that a democratic government was elected freely and fairly. Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

How American Elections Work Three types of elections: Select party nominees (primary elections) Select officeholders (general elections) Select options on specific policies Referendum: state-level method of direct legislation that gives voters a chance to approve proposed legislation or constitutional amendment Initiative petition: process permitted in some states whereby voters may put proposed changes in the state constitution to a vote, given a sufficient number of signatures Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice Suffrage: the legal right to vote 15th: Extended to African-Americans 19: Extended to Women 26: Extended to people over 18 years of age As the right to vote has been extended, proportionally fewer that are eligible have chosen to exercise that right Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice Deciding Whether to Vote U.S. has low voter turnout % of citizens who are eligible to vote and do in an election. Voter turnout has declined over the years. Downs: it is rational to not vote Those who see clear differences between parties likely to vote. If indifferent, then one may rationally abstain from voting. Political Efficacy: the belief ordinary people can influence the government Civic Duty: the belief that in the obligation to vote Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice Registering To Vote Voter Registration: a system adopted by the states that requires voters to register well in advance of the election day Registration procedures differ by state. Motor Voter Act: passed in 1993, requires states to permit people to register to vote when they apply for their driver’s license Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice Who Votes? Education Age Race Gender Marital status Union membership Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice Who Votes? Education: More education = more likely to vote. Most important factor Age: Older = more likely to vote Race: Caucasian = more likely to vote. BUT, other ethnicities are higher with comparable education Gender: Female = more likely to vote Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice Who Votes? (continued) Marital Status: Married = more likely to vote Union Membership: Union member = more likely to vote Traits are cumulative - possessing several adds up Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizens’ Decisions Party Identification Generally vote for a party they agree with. Can rely on their party ID to guide them. Party ID most important for presidential elections More voters are making an individual voting decision and are up for grabs each election Young people are particularly open to voting for other candidates. Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizens’ Decisions Candidate Evaluations Candidates want a good visual image. Look at integrity, reliability, and competence Incumbents score high on competence http://www.today.com/video/today/57207942 Bible 1 Bible 2 Personality plays a role in vote choice, especially if a candidate is perceived to be incompetent or dishonest. Voters rely on their assessment of candidate’s personalities to predict how they will perform in office. Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizens’ Decisions Policy Voting Basing your vote choice on issue preferences and where the candidates stand on policy issues Policy voting may occur if : Voters know where they and the candidates stand on issues and see differences between candidates Unlikely to occur because: Candidates can be ambiguous on the issues. Media tend to focus on the “horse race” not issues. Increased chance today because candidates are forced to take a clear stand in the party primaries Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizens’ Decisions Mandate Theory of Elections The idea that the winning candidate has a mandate from the people to carry out his or her platforms and politics Politicians like the theory better than political scientists do People rarely vote a certain way for the same reasons. Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

The Last Battle: The Electoral College Electoral college actually elects the president—founders wanted the president chosen by the elite of the country Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

The Last Battle: The Electoral College How it works today: Voters select the candidates they want to serve as president and vice president. Votes cast for the president and vice-president are actually for electors. Winner take all (except Maine and Nebraska) Majority vs plurality Each state has as many votes as it does Representatives and Senators. NC: Each party has a statewide convention where they nominate 15 electors and 2 alternates. Names are filed with the Secretary of State. Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

The Last Battle: The Electoral College How it works today: Electors meet on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December after the election. Electors vote and file certificates that are sent to the President of the Senate. Votes are read in January by the vice-president. If no candidate gets a majority of the 538 electors (270), the House of Representatives votes for president, with each state casting one vote. Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

The Last Battle: The Electoral College Introduces bias into the campaign US Total population: 318.9 million 1 elector per 596,075 Wyoming population: 584,183; 3 electors Should have 1 elector NC population: 9.994 million; 15 electors Should have 17 electors Most states have a winner-take-all system that gives bigger emphasis to more populated states. Nebraska and Maine do not use WTA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_UBgj-2LzuI

The Last Battle: The Electoral College While the Electoral College may seem antiquated, debate regarding its necessity increased after the 2000 election.

The Last Battle: The Electoral College

The Last Battle: The Electoral College The outcome of the 2000 Election hinged on the state of Florida. Bush’s lead small enough to mandate an automatic recount by Florida law. Gore requested for a hand count of the votes; on November 26, Bush was certified the winner. With 537 votes separating them, Gore brought suit. Looked at the undervotes Counties that used punch-card systems had 1.5% with no presidential vote whereas only .3% of counties that used scantrons were recorded as blank. The Florida Supreme Court ordered the votes cast but not counted by the machine to be manually counted.

The Last Battle: The Electoral College

The Last Battle: The Electoral College

The Last Battle: The Electoral College

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The Last Battle: The Electoral College Bush v. Gore The court ruled that the Florida Supreme Court's recount order was unconstitutional because it granted more protection to some ballots than to others. This violated the equal protection clause The Court limited its opinion to the present case.

Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008 2016 Election Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

Understanding Elections and Voting Behavior Democracy and Elections The greater the policy differences between candidates, the more likely voters will be able to steer government policy by their choices. Unlikely—candidates do not always clarify issues positions Candidates who vow to continue popular policies are more likely to win elections. Retrospective voting: voters cast a vote based on what a candidate has done for them lately Those who feel worse off are likely to vote against incumbents. Bad economies make politicians nervous. Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

Understanding Elections and Voting Behavior Elections and the Scope of Government Elections generally support government policies and power. Voters feel they are sending a message to government to accomplish something Thus, the government expands to fill the needs of the voters. Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008 Summary Voters make two basic decisions at election time: Whether to vote Who to vote for Party identification, candidate evaluations, and policy positions drive vote choice. Elections are fundamental to a democracy. Pearson Education, Inc., Longman © 2008

Easier to vote vs. Voter fraud You should discuss the policy and whether to support, oppose, or change the policy. Be prepared to defend your decision with arguments from the text. 1. An individual must submit copies of documents showing proof of citizenship and residency when registering to vote 2. An individual who is not register to vote may register on election day and cast a ballot. 3.Voter registration drives by parties will not be permitted in hospitals, public housing projects, public universities, and nursing homes. 4. An individual who votes with an absentee ballot must have it notarized with a photo ID before mailing to to election officials https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHFOwlMCdto