© UKCIP 2006 UKCIP08 What to expect from the next set of climate change scenarios Richard Lamb UK Climate Impacts Programme

© UKCIP 2006 UKCIP Set up by UK Government in 1997 Funded by Defra; based at Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) helps organisations to assess how they might be affected by climate change, so that they can prepare for its impacts Focus on adaptation, given necessity of mitigation

© UKCIP 2006 How UKCIP operates Facilitates relationships between 3 groups of key actors

© UKCIP 2006 UKCIP Tools: Because we dont know all the answers… The Brain

© UKCIP 2006 UKCIP08

© UKCIP 2006 CCIRG91 CCIRG96UKCIP98UKCIP02UKCIP08UKCIPnext Background to UKCIP08 UK climate scenarios produced since 1991 UKCIP published climate scenarios in 1998 and 2002 Each version has become more detailed, building upon: improved scientific knowledge increased computing power stakeholder requirements Each has represented best scientific understanding at that time Audience has evolved and grown

© UKCIP 2006 Dedicated UKCIP08 interactive website Everything will be available in one place Key findings Reports Pre-prepared maps and graphs. Interactive user interface (to give customisable output) Weather Generator Online help and user guidance

© UKCIP 2006 UKCIP08 layered approach Newspaper advert Recommendation from sales advisor Internet research (multiple sources) Key Findings Published material Customisable output

© UKCIP 2006 UKCIP08 principles

© UKCIP Examination of the uncertainty associated with the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model 2.Assessment of the quality of model version results from the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model 3.Incorporation of results from other climate models UKCIP08 principles UKCIP08 based on three important principles:

© UKCIP 2006 Principle 1 Examination of the uncertainty associated with the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model

© UKCIP 2006 Modelling uncertainties – UKCIP02 as a starting point UKCIP02 Medium-High Emissions Summer 2080s Size of change Time This gives one future climate change outcome...

© UKCIP 2006 Modelling uncertainty – UKCIP08 Size of change Time 31 parameter values ~300 versions of the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model

© UKCIP 2006 Size of change Time Single results from other IPCC climate models Modelling uncertainties – different models give different results

© UKCIP 2006 Modelling uncertainty – UKCIP08 Size of change Time Count

© UKCIP 2006 Modelling uncertainty – PDFs are modified to incorporate single runs of other IPCC models Size of change Probability Single results from other IPCC climate models included UKCIP08 probabilistic climate projection

© UKCIP 2006 Using UKCIP08 What users wanted Address the limitations of previous UK climate scenarios Improved consideration and quantification of associated uncertainties – probabilistic information Improved spatial and temporal details More information about climate change in the marine environment Improved accessibility (dedicated online user interface)

© UKCIP 2006 Greater spatial and temporal detail 25km X 25km grid One PDF for each of these

© UKCIP 2006 Greater spatial and temporal detail Administrative regions 25km grid Pre-defined aggregated areas

© UKCIP 2006 Greater spatial and temporal detail River basins 25km grid Pre-defined aggregated areas

© UKCIP 2006 Greater spatial and temporal detail 5km grid Observed climate datasets including daily max and min temperature Weather Generator to provide statistical expressions of future daily weather consistent with the climate projections (over land areas)

© UKCIP 2006 Provides a statistical expression of future climate at daily time-scales Allows exploration of climate variables at daily time scale Adjust observed data using change factors randomly taken from a PDF Future 30-year time period simulated many times – long sequences of daily output that will be consistent with the UKCIP08 probabilistic climate projections. Uses observed climate (1961 to 1995) at daily time scale The UKCIP08 Weather Generator

© UKCIP 2006 Climate change for marine regions Sea areas based on Defra Charting Progress report 9 data sets available Probabilistic Data How UKCIP08 will offer an increased level of detail PDF available for each area

© UKCIP 2006 Storm surge model 12km resolution Not probabilistic How UKCIP08 will offer an increased level of detail

© UKCIP 2006 Sub-surface model 12km resolution Not probabilistic Salinity, temperature and currents How UKCIP08 will offer an increased level of detail

© UKCIP 2006 Marine Projections Probabilistic projections of changes to surface air temperature, precipitation, windspeed and cloud Absolute sea-level rise over a single UK domain, plus relative sea-level rise for a areas of the coastline Probabilistic-like projections of extreme water levels (storm-surges) for 2-50yr return periods over the European Shelf – 12 km resolution. Single projection of changes to ocean subsurface temperature, salinity, E & W currents at 12km over the European Shelf Wave information for the UK as a whole and for coastal regions. Medium emission scenario only

© UKCIP s2050s2080s How UKCIP08 will offer an increased level of detail 2030s 2040s 2050s 2020s 2060s 2070s 2080s UKCIP02 Three 30-year time periods UKCIP08 Seven overlapping 30-year time periods

© UKCIP 2006 Change Probability Larger Smaller UKCIP08 will present probabilistic climate projections for 3 emissions scenarios labelled as Low, Medium and High emissions (B1, A1B and A1FI) UKCIP08 probabilistic climate projections do not address emissions uncertainty Future emissions of greenhouse gases are used to drive climate models to project future climate – we cannot know what actual future emissions will be Important effect beyond ~2050s Warning!

© UKCIP 2006 Supporting the use of UKCIP08 Have completed a series of awareness raising workshops Post-launch training events: Will cover entire UK Will introduce UKCIP08 to new users and allow users to get hands on with the user interface Will be supported by e-learning Training User Guidance Guidance on ways in which the information provided by UKCIP08 can be used Will include worked examples, frequently asked questions and getting started section To be updated and revised based on users experience once UKCIP08 is available

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