Southern Nevada Compensation and Benefits Association May 14, 2008 Economic Update Southern Nevada Compensation and Benefits Association May 14, 2008

Has LV Housing Reached a Bottom?

Las Vegas Housing Prices January 1987 to December 2003 January 2000 = 100

Las Vegas Housing Prices January 1987 – March 2008

Las Vegas Housing: Current and Trend Estimates 177.2 ($233K) 126.7 ($160K) January 2000 = 100

Doesn’t Look Like a Bottom Yet Current Deficit (previous chart) more than 30% Remainder of 2008 with declining values But, if doesn’t look like it will return to the linear trend of the past Inflation outlook Strong job growth with Strip openings in 2009

Is LV in a Recession?

What is a Recession? “Probably Not”

What is a Recession? “Probably yes, a mild long recession”

What is a Recession? “Yes deep, but short”

A Recession Requires “clearly present” downturns Depth Duration Across most economic sectors U.S. recession Media: Two quarters decline in GDP Official: NBER

A Look at the Previous U.S. Peak “Looking for a Downturn”

Previous Six Recessions Employment Declines? 2001 Peak Previous Six Recessions Broken Line Months Prior to Peak Months Following Peak

Industrial Production?

Manufacturing and Trade Sales?

Real Personal Income?

Peaks and Troughs Identification after the fact The last downturn declared eight months later First quarter 2008 GDP growth slightly positive Jobs turned down January 2008

Is Las Vegas in a Recession? What do the Data Show

Unemployment Rates Going Up

LV Unemployment Rate below 2001 level

Down, but No Depth

No Discernible Peak

Down of Recent and Below Forecast by Nevada

Flat, but Hard to See a Downturn?

But Some Job Sectors Weak For some it is a recession, for others it is a no growth

Construction Jobs Peaked

Job Outlook Weak national economy, perhaps a recession Most likely a mild recession and a weak recovery Las Vegas economy generally marks time Job growth with the openings along the Strip in last half of 2009.