“The need of revising the good old Wolf numbers”

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Presentation transcript:

“The need of revising the good old Wolf numbers” The issue is not the good old Wolf Numbers. They are basically still approximately good. The revision is mostly a simple change of scale, removing the artificial 0.6 factor. The real issue is the revision of the bad old Group Sunspot Number that not even one of its ‘creators’ believe in anymore Leif Svalgaard Ken H. Schatten The Antique Telescope Society 6th Space Climate Symposium, Levi, April 2016

Problem with Normalization The Ratio Group/Zürich SSN has Two Significant Discontinuities Problem with SSN Problem with Group Number Problem with Normalization At ~1947 (After Max Waldmeier took over) and at 1876-1910 (Greenwich calibration drifting) As we found problems with the H&S normalization, we (Svalgaard & Schatten) decided to build a new Group Series ‘from scratch’

SSN with/without Weighting The weight (inflation) factor The observed (reported) SSN (pink) and the corrected SSN (black) Light blue dots show yearly values of un-weighted counts from Locarno, i.e. not relying on the weight factor formula. The agreement is excellent The inflation due to weighting largely explains the second anomaly in the ratio between the GSN and the SSN

A New Approach: The Backbones Wolfer Schwabe

Normalization Procedure Wolfer = 1.653 Wolf F = 1202 For each Backbone we regress each observers group counts for each year against those of the primary observer, and plot the result [left panel]. The slope gives us what factor to multiply the observer’s count by to match the primary’s. The right panel shows a result for the Wolfer Backbone: blue is Wolf’s count [with his small telescope], pink is Wolfer’s count [with the larger telescope], and the orange curve is the blue curve multiplied by the slope. The Backbone is then constructed as the average normalized counts of all observers that are part of the backbone

Harmonizing Schwabe and Wolfer Backbones

Rectifying the ~1885 Discrepancy Hoyt & Schatten used the Group Count from RGO [Royal Greenwich Observatory] as their Normalization Backbone. Why don’t we? GSN/SSN 1885 Because there are strong indications that the RGO data is drifting before ~1900. And that is a major reason for the ~1885 change in the level of the H&S Group Sunspot Number

J.C. Staudach’s Drawings 1749-1799 Wolf had this to be only one group Modern Observers see three groups 1134 drawings Floating Backbone Wolf undercounted the number of groups on the Staudach drawings by 25%. We use my re-count in building the backbone (see later)

Help from the Antique Telescope Society John W. Briggs Ken Spencer Walter Stephani Help from the Antique Telescope Society

Results so Far for Sunspot Numbers On Average the Modern Observers see sunspot numbers about 3 times larger than our intrepid observers. This is about what we have found by trying to normalize the old data to modern values, so validating the recent revision of the official Sunspot Number

Putting it All Together (Real Progress!) Lockwood et al. 2015 Usoskin et al. 2015 Svalgaard & Schatten 2016 Very good agreement between different reconstructions

Tweedledee’s Wisdom 'if it was so, it might be; and if it were so, it would be; but as it isn't, it ain't