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Name of presenter(s) or subtitle Reversing the Democratic Deficit Richard Jenkins Vice President, Corporate Director of Public Opinion Research

©2005 TNS Canadian Facts 3 Methodology Nationally representative survey of 1018 Canadian adults, aged 18 and over. Conducted by telephone between May 31 and June 6, 2004 (early campaign). Poll results accurate to within 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. All numbers rounded.

©2005 TNS Canadian Facts 4 Turnout in Federal Elections: 1962 to 2005 Source: Elections Canada Idiosyncratic fluctuations before 1993 have given way to deep decline in voter turnout.

©2005 TNS Canadian Facts 5 Why do people vote? And why might voters have turned away after 1988? Theories of voter turnout seem inadequate. Electoral system Rational actors Postmodernism/cultural change Education, more educated Idiosyncratic factors Liberal Effect Challenge: At individual level voting is a choice that some people make when faced with competing demands on their time.

©2005 TNS Canadian Facts 6 Eroding Commitment to Voting A psychological segmentation based on three dimensions needs fit How do people rate the alternatives? In other words, satisfaction. Involvement in the category How important is this choice… how much does it matter? ambivalence How certain are people – are there many, or few reasons to change?

©2005 TNS Canadian Facts 7 What the segments mean Read: 4.7% of all respondents are entrenched to voting LIKELY Committed, but not as strongly COMMITTED Strongly committed to voting, unlikely not to vote AT RISK Uncommitted, should be considered at risk NON VOTERS Highly uncommitted EntrenchedAverage Shallow Convertible % Strength of commitment to voting n:1018 Note 7% were not classified (not included in base)

©2005 TNS Canadian Facts 8 Self-Reported Vote Intention vs. Commitment Most CommittedLeast Committed Likelihood of voting TotalCommittedLikelyAt RiskNon-voters Certain Likely Unlikely Certain not to vote Self-reports identify the completely disengaged

©2005 TNS Canadian Facts 9 Who is Committed? Demographics Age: 39% of those are non-voters vs. 9% of seniors Education Why are so many at risk of not voting? Disengagement from politics A rejection of the parties/leadership Problems with the electoral system

©2005 TNS Canadian Facts 10 Tuning out…is politics less interesting today? Interest in the federal election average 5.7 on a 0-10 point scale. One in four Canadians are engaged in the election. Linear relationship between commitment and interest. One in four often discussed federal election in the past week. Half (49%) think that politics and government is too complicated and this is related to commitment.

©2005 TNS Canadian Facts 11 Interest in Federal Election

©2005 TNS Canadian Facts 12 Its the fault of political parties… No surprise, parties and politicians generate negative evaluations. Parties not seen as good at presenting clear choices, finding solutions, or expressing concerns of ordinary people. Parties dont keep their promises. Sense that government doesnt care is key for understanding non-voters and at risk.

©2005 TNS Canadian Facts 13 Rating Politicians in Canada Q: When you take into account everything that you expect from politicians and political parties, how do you rate the politicians of Canada as a whole, on a scale from one to seven where one is extremely negative and seven is extremely positive? Extremely negative Extremely positive

©2005 TNS Canadian Facts 14 Political Party Performance How good a job do political parties in general do of…. Clear choicesFinding solutionsExpressing concerns Committed Likely At risk Non-voter2621 % quite or very good job

©2005 TNS Canadian Facts 15 Responsiveness of Parties and Elected Officials All parties are the same Political parties keep their promises % most/some of the time % agree

©2005 TNS Canadian Facts 16 Responsiveness of Parties and Elected Officials Elected soon lose touchGovernment does not care % agree

©2005 TNS Canadian Facts 17 Is turnout a good measure of democratic health? Satisfaction with democracy is not eroding like turnout At risk voters are, however, much less satisfied. Does low turnout even matter? Non-voters have different views and economic interests. Non-voters, if they voted, could impact on party that wins. But, there is disjunction between elections and government.

©2005 TNS Canadian Facts 18 Satisfaction with Democracy in Canada Note: 1997 and 2000 from Canadian Election Studies (campaign surveys) Trend since 1997 By Commitment % very/fairly

©2005 TNS Canadian Facts 19 Vote Intention by Commitment Most CommittedLeast Committed TotalCommittedLikelyAt RiskNon-voter Liberal Conservative NDP BQ Other Dont know Refused Certain not to vote

©2005 TNS Canadian Facts 20 Commitment to Vote and Expressed Party Preference Among those who express party preference (including leaners), Liberals have slightly more committed base. Minor parties clearly suffer from irrelevance

©2005 TNS Canadian Facts 21 Diluted or wasted votes…are elections irrelevant? Only 30% of Canadians say that their vote hardly counts for anything. Believed particularly by non- voters but not a key driver. Voting does matter to some; 69% say that you forfeit your right to criticize if you dont vote. Even non-voters agree.

©2005 TNS Canadian Facts 22 Commitment to do something different amongst politicians. What will motivate change? Better governance will reinvigorate democracy. Electoral system reform Can changing the rules of the game for parties/media & voters infuse public discourse? Can elections be made relevant to postmodern citizenry? Reversing the trend… Solutions?

At Risk Lacking interest and disengaged from their government and parties, but seeing some value in their vote Committed Small segment that represents the political class Realistic Non-voters One in four are so cynical that it would create dissonance to vote. Likely About 1 in 4 fit into this group of skeptical participants