Young Stand Monitoring applied in the Morice TSR R. de Jong CSC Winter Workshop 27 February 2014 Many concerns have been raised about young stands (their health, growth rate, mortality, composition, and future yield) and the assumptions made in TSR about these stands. In response, FAIB has modified inventory sampling procedures to intensify sampling of young stands and establish long-term monitoring plots on a grid over each management unit. Networks of young stand monitoring (YSM) plots have now been established in Morice, Quesnel, Williams Lake, Merritt, and Kootenay Lake TSAs. In 2014 we will add Prince George TSA. Also, under FIA, several TFLs have been previously established and remeasured young stand monitoring plot networks (TFL 35, 52, 33, 55). This data type is a new addition to AAC determinations for TSAs. Highlighting the Morice YSM as a case study for inclusion in the Morice TSR.

Assessment of Mid-rotation Stands Stand Development Monitoring (SDM) Young Stand Monitoring (YSM) To assess Timber Objective of FRPA (FREP) To change Legislation if required To change PRACTICE if required Stand Level assessment – 10 plots per polygon, summarized per TSA To assess TRENDS of young stands relative to TSR assumptions and adjust (FAIB) Management Unit assessment – permanent sample plots established on a grid over the target population ∆ Leg and Practice ∆ TSR

Morice YSM Program Established 2012 50 * 0.04ha plots Grid Based Unbiased estimate of 15 – 50 year old target population A total of 50 monitoring plots were established in 2012 across the young stand population of 15-50 year old stands. Result is an unbiassed assessment of the characteristics of young second growth stands that are being tracked over time.

Objectives Describe Young Stand Characteristics Assess Accuracy of Inventory Polygons Assess Accuracy of Site Index Estimates Check on TSR Assumptions Localize MSYTs using YSM data

Describe Stand Characteristics Composition

Describe Stand Characteristics Structure Stand Table - Live Stock Table - Live

Describe Stand Characteristics Forest Health Live Dead

Assess Accuracy of Inventory Polys Observed vs. VRI Species Composition

Assess Accuracy of SI Estimates Observed vs. Provincial Site Prod Tile

Check on TSR Assumptions TIPSY MSYTs @ each Sample Point # Ground Samples MSYT Volume Ground Volume Difference (m3/ha) 50 27 48 21

Localize MSYTs with YSM Data Characteristic Impact Applied in Site index Base Assumption Species mix Forest health Alternate Scenario Characteristics examined in relation to TSR assumptions – with TSR inputs refined in three key areas. The site index measured in young stands in Morice is slightly greater than assumed for young stands in the TSR. When adjusted, this increased the predicted future yield. The species composition measured in young stands in Morice differed from the composition assumed for young stands in the TSR. When adjusted this increased yields of some AUs and decreased yields of others Forest health – A range of forest health agents are recorded for each individual tree. Of concern in the Morice is stem rust impacting Pine. We used the incidence of Pine stem rust to quantify what the potential impact would be, as part of a forest health scenario.

Localize MSYTs with YSM Data Site Index Adjustment TSR-based SI underestimated compared to ground-based site index. Action: apply site index adjustment by species First site index TSR-based SI originates from the provincial site productivity tile Ground SI from standard SI ground sampling procedures at each ground sample Comparing paired predicted to ground SI at each ground sample point, enables a comparison of how well the provincial site prod tile is for a given unit. The adjustment can be seen as an un-biassed localization of SI based on our sample of YSM ground samples. Impact is that the provincial site productivity tile slightly underestimates SI, therefore an adjustment by species will have the effect of an upward pressure in existing MSYTs

Localize MSYTs with YSM Data Species Composition YSM ground species mix vs. TSR assumptions Action: Apply YSM species mix by AU Scenario Species Percent by THLB HWD BL PL SX Total YSM species mix 1 13 60 25 100 TSR Existing Assumptions 27 46 26 TSR Future Assumptions 40 59 Second species composition * Base assumption species mix originate from existing inventory *YSM ground sample species mix can be used to compare against TSR modeling assumptions Other published species mix from existing second growth stands in RESULTS, are similar to YSM distributions Application: is to replace base assumption species, with YSM ground species mixes computed for each analysis unit. Table illustrates a ‘rolled up’ summary across the entire THLB * Impact: species complexity increases, and can result in both upward or downward pressures on resulting yield tables, depending on species

Localize MSYTs with YSM Data Forest Health Impact Worst-case FH scenario assumes all stem rust affected Pine will die at rotation. Action: Apply incremental OAF1 in Pine dominated regimes Data Source % of Total SPH (host species) % of Total SPH (all species) % of Total BA (all species) RESULTS 10   SDM 21 16 YSM 25 15 Third forest health *We know that forest health issues are a concern in the Morice YSM data can be used to help develop alternate scenarios, to quantify the potential impact of a given forest health agent on future yields. In this case, we focused on stem rusts affecting Pine (western gall, commandra). Idea was to quantify the total number of stem rust affected Pine, and assume all would die at rotation, under an alternate scenario. We compared overall impacts against different data sources (including RESULTS and SDM) While younger RESULTS data seems to show fewer incidence of impact, both SDM and YSM data are showing very similar results of a potential overall impact, when compared over a standardized measure. Application: we applied a yield reduction of about 15% to quantify Pine stem rusts (in those Aus dominated by Pine)

Pine Med AU – Site Index Example impact of SIA on a Pine medium AU (211) * localizing SI results in an upward pressure on yield

Pine Med AU – Species mix Example impact of species mix change on Pine Medium AU (211) * Change of species mix to YSM measure, results in downward pressure in yield

Pine Med AU – Forest Health Example of FH impact on Pine Medium AU (211) Applied in an alternate forest health scenario to quantify Pine Stem rusts Only affected in Pine dominated Aus

Pine Med AU – Combined Impact Combining Impacts SI increases yield, species mix decreases yields. Net impact for this AU is that the effects appear to cancel each other out. In other species Aus this can result in a further decrease or further increase. The inclusion of FH impact wil have result in the overall downward pressure in this example.

Morice TSR Scenarios Scenario Era Managed Stand Yield Table Base Case Run Existing Managed Stands YSM (SIA + species) Future Managed Stands 2013 Data Package regimes Alternate Scenario Run YSM (SIA + species + FH) YSM (SIA + species + FH + GG) Overall application *based on review of different options with TSR analyst and management, the following lists the different MSYT scenarios going forward with the Morice TSA YSM modified yield tables were used as part of the base case to describe young existing mgd stands. YSM modified yield tables were also used as part of an alternate scenario to quantify forest health impacts.

Summary YSM to describe young stand population YSM as a check on TSR assumptions, both current and future stands YSM to generate localized MSYTs YSM to support alternative modeling scenarios with measured data (forest health) Future YSM data to include change (growth / mortality)