1. Prince George Timber Supply Area Timber Supply Review (PG TSA TSR V)
Presentation to Prince George City Council
June 13, 2016

2. DJA
DPG
DVA

3. Current AAC: PG TSA
12.5 million m3/year with a 3.5 million m3/yr partition for non-pine, of which 850,000 m3/yr from Sx leading stands, a 160,000 m3/ yr partition for deciduous leading stands , and a 23,000 m3/yr partition for Cw- leading within the ICH in the PG District
Harvest Performance
Average annual billed harvest since 2002 has been ~9million cubic metres per year with the average over the past 5 years being ~ 10 million m3/yr.
Since 2010 there has been a significant shift from Prince George and Vanderhoof into southern Fort St. James.

4. Timber Supply Review Program and Allowable Annual Cut
Examine relevant land use and forest management practices, public and First Nation’s input, and economic, environmental and social factors.
Provides the information needed to set the Allowable Annual Cut (AAC) for the next ten years.
Identify information to be improved for future timber supply reviews.

5. Timber Supply Review Program and Allowable Annual Cut
AAC is the maximum volume of wood available for harvest from an area each year.
Pursuant to Section 8 of the Forest Act. determining AAC’s is the responsibility of the Chief Forester - Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations

6. Role of the Chief Forester
Independent statutory decision maker
Must not be fettered or allow themselves to be fettered
Must not exceed the scope of authority provided in legislation (e.g. can determine an AAC but can not establish land use objectives).

7. Chief Forester’s “guiding principles”
AAC determination is a professional judgement, not a calculation
AACs should reflect current practices and are not intended to drive management objectives
AACs are determined frequently to ensure they incorporate up to date information and knowledge

8. TSR5 Schedule 60 Day Reviews Information Collection & Data Package
Public and Stakeholder Review
Discussion Paper (key analysis results)
Public and Stakeholder Review
AAC Determination
and Rationale
April 2014
April 2015
April 2016
Late Fall 2016

9. Section 8 of the Forest Act
The Chief Forester must determine AACs for Timber Supply Areas (TSAs) and Tree Farm Licences (TFLs) every 10 years considering:
The rate of timber production taking into account:
Composition of the forest and the expected rate of growth
Expected time to re-establish a forest after harvest
Utilization and decay, waste and breakage
Other IRM objectives
The short and long term implications from alternative rates of harvest
Abnormal insect infestations
Social and economic objectives of the Crown

10. Timber Supply Analysis 101
Timber supply analysis uses a computer simulation model that projects the state of the forest into the future, given a set of assumptions about harvesting, forest management, and stand growth.

11. Timber Supply Analysis 101

12. Landbase and Timber Merchantability Definition
Forest Definition
Slope & Elevation
Distance
Low volume stands and non-merchantable timber types
Terrain Stability
Areas reserved for the management of other resource values
11/20/2018

13. Process Intersect historic cutblock layer
Analyze distribution of values
Assign threshold and assess impact

14. Pine Salvage Cutting permits Non salvage Cutting permits

15. Non-timber values considered Section 8(8)(a)v
Riparian habitat
Biodiversity
Identified wildlife
Ungulate winter range
Cultural heritage
Community watersheds
Range lands
Old growth management
Sensitive soils

17. Crown Forest (Blue) and Timber Harvesting Land Base (green)
Prince George TSA
Crown Forest (Blue) and Timber Harvesting Land Base (green)

20. Mountain Pine Beetle Attacked Pine Stands

21. Timber Supply Analysis 101
Timber Supply Model 21

22. Timber Supply Analysis 101
Harvest forecast

24. Timber Supply 101 – Uncertainty in Forecasting

25. Prince George TSA Context - 2010

29. Alternative Harvest Flows

30. Thank you