Challenges of the Digital Revolution Dr Tim Kelly, Int’l Telecom Union (ITU), International Policy Dialogue on Digital Inclusion, Berlin, 23-24 January 2001 The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU or its membership. Tim Kelly can be contacted by e-mail at: Tim.Kelly@itu.int. 1

Challenges of the Digital Revolution Technology and the Development Gap Digital divide = Telecoms divide Changing nature of divide over time Digital divide and poverty reduction: The Least Developed Countries (LDCs) LDCs falling further behind Two “success stories”: Nepal and Uganda World Summit on the Information Society A possible focus for reporting results of a future “digital opportunity” action plan

Digital divide = Telecoms divide User distribution, by income group, Jan 2000 280 490 912 6 billion million million million 100% 15 % High income 90% 80% 58 % Upper-mid income 70% Lower-mid income 69 % 60% 82 % 50% Low income 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Internet users Mobile users Telephone lines Popul- ation Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database.

The digital divide is shrinking, but also shifting 18% Jan. 1995 Jan. 2000 28% Share of low and lower-middle income countries in: Telephone main lines Mobile subscribers Estimated Internet Users Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database. 5% 14% 1.1% 7.6%

LDCs falling further behind: Share of worldwide Internet Users 10% LDCs Share of world population = 10.6% Share of Internet users = 0.1% 8% China 6% Other low 4% & lower- mid 2% income 0% LDCs 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Two LDC “success stories” Nepal 16-fold increase in IP connectivity in 8 months following liberalisation of VSAT market in 1999 Lowest IP access prices in South Asia Vibrant competition in ISP market Uganda Rapid increase in network growth following introduction of second national operator, MTN Uganda First country in Africa where mobilephone outnumber fixed-line telephones Independent regulatory agency Source: Internet Diffusion Case Studies at: http://www.itu.int/ti/casestudies

World Summit on the Info Society, 2003 Possible target for reporting on digital divide initiatives?