Topic #4 Financial Instruments in the Market: II Stocks J.D. Han King’s College, UWO

Three Methods of Valuation/Prediction 1. Technical Analysis 2. Fundamental Analysis 3.Rational Expectations Analysis

I. Technical Analysis :”Charting” technique Trying to identify “deterministic” pattern in historical stock prices Stock prices are believed to go through this ‘deterministic’ life cycles

Technical Analysis in the real world What are they? How do they work? http://stockcharts.com/education/TradingStrategies/index.html Do they make an economic sense? A higher profit with TA than without it. At what cost? -Practicality Issue http://www.recognia.com/about/news/2003_01_27.htm

II. Fundamental Analysis “Accounting” Method 1. Basic Premise: Price-Earnings Ratio gravitates towards a certain Benchmark Value. The Benchmark Value is just like a Long-Run equilibrium value in economics. # Does it exist?

2. Investment Strategy of Fundamental Analysis “Pick up Undervalued Stocks” (1) Simplest Method If P/E ratio < Benchmark P/E, the stock is undervalued: “Buy” If P/E ratio < Benchmark P/E, the stock is overvalued: “Sell” (2) Most Complex(Obscure) Methods John Templeton’s strategy Warren Buffett’s strategy http://www.investopedia.com/articles/01/071801.asp

3. Stock Price P = D/ (r – g) P: ‘fair’ Stock Price D: Annual Dividends r: Discount Rate (=Interest Rate from alternative investment) g: (Expected) Annual Growth rate of Dividends

4. Price-Earnings Ratio P/E Ratio = Price / Earnings = (Dividends/Earnings) / (r - g)

* Numerical Example (Question) Would you buy or sell the following stock? Actual Price of a Stock = $55 Dividends = $1 Interest Rate = 5% Annual Growth Rate of Dividends = 3% (Solution) What is the ‘fair price’ of this stock? Is the actual market price higher or lower?

III. Rational Expectations Analysis “There is no mis-priced stock in the market” “No known information or deterministic information is useful in predicting a future price change”

1. Why?: Efficient Market Theorem Financial Market is Efficient in Utilizing Information All known/expected information has been already reflected in the current price through immediate market actions possibly by those close to information sources: The current price of an asset is the result of market actions based on the known/expected information. No chance for an average investor with public information to make profits

2. Three Versions of Efficient Market Theorem Weak Version: past price has no ‘informational’ value, and does not help you predict a future price change History does not help predict the future Technical analysis is useless Semi-strong Version: Public information is useless. Strong Version: No information is helpful

3. What does the Rational Expectations Theory say about the Stock Prices over time? Current Stock Prices have already incorporated all expected information. Any even that has been anticipated does not affect the stock price again. Only the event that has not been anticipated affects the stock price. Stock Prices respond only to “News” or “Surprise” News are random, and thus Changes in Stock Price are Random Walk (not denying the trend of stock price itself).

4. Implications for Investment Strategy Long-Term Buy and Hold: Short-Term Unpredictability: You cannot beat the market “Timing the market” is a bad idea