Agenda Item D.1.a Supplemental NMFS Presentation 1 November 2018 Three Year Review of the Lower Columbia River natural coho harvest matrix West Coast Region Jeromy Jording, Sustainable Fisheries Division, Anadromous Harvest Branch

Harvest control rule matrix West Coast Region   Parental Escapement (rate of full seeding) Marine Survival Index (based on return of jacks per hatchery smolt) Very Low (≤ 0.06%) Low (≤ 0.08%) Medium (≤ 0.17%) High (≤ 0.40%) Very High (> 0.40%) Normal ≥ 0.30 10% 15% 18% 23% 30% Allowable exploitation rate < 0.30 ≤ 10% ≤ 15% ≤ 18% ≤ 23% ≤ 30% Slide 2: here is the matrix; 2014 the council proposed that we consider its use for ESA consultation standards for salmon fisheries in 2015 and beyond; opinion adopted the recommendation to review the matrix every three years as a check on projected results and any changes in key presumptions; it’s now 2018, we are initiating the planned review; we’d like comments which we’ll consider at the Council’s March 2019 meeting prior to finalizing the three year review. This harvest control rule depends on parental escapement and marine survival of the LCN coho stock U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 2

Lower Columbia Natural coho Results Lower Columbia Natural coho West Coast Region Year Average Parental Escapement (rate of full seeding) Marine Survival Index Preseason LCN coho forecast Postseason LCN coho run Exploitation Rate limit preseason Exploitation Rate achieved 2015 Normal High 35,900 20,900 23.0% 24.4% 2016 Medium 40,000 16,000 18.0% 8.9% 2017 30,100 31,200 10.8% Slide 3: we forecasting the aggregate lower river wild abundance; Table 2 captures what this slide shows; Post season indicates the abundance category was correctly forecast in 2017, but high in 2015 & 2016; Calculated total exploitation on LCN coho salmon in all fisheries in the ocean and in the Columbia River below Bonneville Dam. These are estimated using the Fisheries Regulation Assessment Model (FRAM) which is currently used by the Council to annually estimate impacts of proposed ocean and terminal fisheries on Chinook and coho salmon stocks. U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 3

Results Then Now West Coast Region LCR coho salmon populations Photo by Marilyn & Eric Jordan Slide 4: Tables 4, 5, and 6 attached to the end of the draft report has new escapement data for seven; This slide depicts what was available to us at the time we evaluated the matrix and what populations are now also being monitored; new escapement information shows no substantive changes in abundance or hatchery. LCR coho salmon populations U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 4

Results All three years parental escapement = Normal Marine survival has not been below the medium Since 2015 ERs have been below limit by nearly 1/2 West Coast Region ER Slide5: Summary, the contributing three parental escapement years have been normal, and marine survival forecasts for LCN have been high,; need more data points to accumulate to allow for a more comprehensive review; when possible ERs from FRAM should be compared to independent exploitation rate estimates derived from coded-wire tag groups; Time U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 5

Please send written comments to: Questions? Please send written comments to: Jeromy.Jording@noaa.gov or 510 Desmond Drive SE, Suite 103 Lacey, WA 98503-1263 West Coast Region Q’s and comment location, looking forward to receiving comments on material shown in the draft report and suggestions for other topics that should be considered. U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 6