Ricardo Scachetti Pereira CRIA Modeling Species Ecological Niches: an example of predicting potential of invasion Ricardo Scachetti Pereira CRIA

Why Model Species Human interaction is changing landscape Data is not Available in Quantity Data is Biased in Many Ways Inferential Analysis is Required Modeling Algorithms Can Be Used

Case Study: Invasion of Weeds Weeds are among the main threats to biodiversity conservation understand how wildlife areas are vulnerable to invasion of weeds is important to long-term conservation of biodiversity, helping in conservation policies.

An example: Crotalaria Authors: Rafael Luís Fonseca (CRIA) Paulo Roberto Guimarães Jr. (UNICAMP) Sérgio Rodrigues Morbiolo (UNICAMP) Ricardo Scachetti Pereira (CRIA) Andrew Townsend Peterson (U. Kansas)

Input Data for GARP point localities where the species is known to occur geographic layers representing the environmental parameters that might limit the species' capabilities to survive

Methodology Generate Models Predicting Occurrence in Native Range

Methodology Project Models Onto Invasion Area

Evaluate Vulnerability Overlay Projections over Conserv. Units

One More Time: C. pallida Generate Models Predicting Occurrence in Native Range

One More Time: C. pallida Project Models Onto Invasion Area

Evaluate Vulnerability Overlay Projections over Conserv. Units

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