Report to the UPDEA 39th General Assembly By How to prevent lack of Generation Capacity in SAPP SAPP Executive Committee Representative Tanger, Morocco 30 November 2007

Demand and Supply in SAPP Rehabilitation and Short Term Projects CONTENTS General Information Demand and Supply in SAPP Rehabilitation and Short Term Projects Transmission Projects

GENERAL INFORMATION Key Statistics 12 Countries 230 Million DR Congo Tanzania Zambia Angola Malawi Zimbabwe Mozambique Botswana Namibia South Africa Lesotho Swaziland 12 Countries 230 Million Annual consumption 250 TWh Electricity growth rate 3% p.a. Generation mix Coal 74.3% Hydro 20.1% Nuclear 4% Gas/diesel 1.6%

Power Supply and Demand No. Country Utility Installed Capacity [MW] Available 2006 Peak Demand [MW] 1 Angola ENE 742 590 432 2 Botswana BPC 132 120 473 3 DRC SNEL 2,442 1,170 993 4 Lesotho LEC 72 70 101 5 Malawi ESCOM 305 261 251 6 Mozambique EDM 307 320 HCB 2,250 2,075 7 Namibia NamPower 393 390 408 8 South Africa Eskom 42,011 36,208 34,807 9 Swaziland SEB 51 50 188 10 Tanzania TANESCO 897 680 567 11 Zambia ZESCO 1,752 1,302 12 Zimbabwe ZESA 1,990 1,825 1,904 TOTAL 53,124 44,741 41,744 Non-coincidental 2006 peak demand for interconnected grid: 40,554 MW Available hydro capacity varies depending on season

The SAPP Planning Data is indicating that SAPP runs out of generation surplus capacity after the year 2007.

Peak Demand in 2006 & 2007 Load shedding in ZESA, ZESCO and NamPower in 2006 at peak periods Interruptible Load Contracts, Demand Market Participation and DSM utilised in ESKOM. (Experience in 2006) This demonstrated that supply was not adequate The 2007 indicates that actual generation reserve capacity were lower than normally planned. Demand Side Management Initiatives have been initiated and supported

Commissioned Generation Projects [2004-2006] Country Plant Capacity [MW] Total Capacity (MW) Commissioning Date Comment Angola Capanda 1 2 x 130 260 2004 New Tanzania Ubongo 2 x 40 80 2005 Zambia Kariba North 1 x 30 30 Uprating South Africa Camden 2 x190 380 De-mothballed 190 2006 Arnot 6 x 20 120 2005 - 2006 Upgrade Swaziland Maguga 20 Kafue Gorge 2x15 Total 1140

New Generation Projects in 2007 ESKOM commissioned 2 x 190 MW at Camden in 1st quarter of 2007. ESKOM commissioned 1050 MW – Commercial Operation was in May 2007 (OCGT). TANESCO commissioned 100 MW GT at end of Sept 2007 at Ubungo. SEB to commission 20 MW at Maguga before Dec 2007.

Priority Projects The SAPP priority projects have been agreed as follows: Rehabilitation & associated transmission projects. Short-term generation projects Expected to be commissioned before 2010 Completed feasibility studies Approved Environmental Impact Assessment Transmission projects Medium to Long-term generation projects Expected to be commissioned after 2010 Most have no feasibility studies and EIA

Classification of Generation Projects

Planned Rehabilitation & Short Term Generation Projects 2007 to 2010 Generation Capacity Country MW Angola 343 Botswana 600 DRC 1136 Lesotho 28 Malawi 104 Mozambique 912 Namibia 800 RSA 6639 Swaziland 20 Tanzania 260 Zambia 1350 Zimbabwe 1315 TOTAL 13507 Annual Average Planned New Generation Capacity = 3,327 MW Most Projects are on track to be commissioned before 2010

Country Capacity Contribution The above projects have secured funding and are currently in progress. They are expected to be commissioned before 2010.

REHABILITATION & SHORT TERM PROJECTS Country Capacity, MW Percentage Botswana 600 4.6% DRC 1,136 13.1% Lesotho 28 0.3% Malawi 104 1.2% Mozambique 912 10.5% Namibia 800 9.2% South Africa 2,541 29.3% Tanzania 260 3.0% Zambia 1,170 13.5% Zimbabwe 935 15.2% TOTAL 8,486 100 The above projects are ready but have not reached financial closure. If funding was available, the should be commissioned by 2010.

SOUTHERN AFRICAN GRID A total of USD 4.7 billion is required to Dem Rep of Congo Congo Gabon Luanda Windhoek Lusaka Harare Lilongwe Nairobi Dar es Salaam Gaborone Pretoria Johannesburg Cape Town Maputo Mbabane Kinshasa Brazzaville Angola Tanzania Kenya Mozambique South Africa Swaziland Lesotho Namibia Zambia Botswana Zimbabwe Malawi Rwanda Burundi H P T N Hydro station Pumped storage scheme Thermal Station A total of USD 4.7 billion is required to develop the identified transmission projects

SAPP Members (All) Diminishing Generation Surplus Capacity 75000 70000 65000 60000 MW 55000 50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year Capacity Planned Capacity Required Peak Demand USD 7.9 billion needed to develop 6,700 MW by 2010-Financial needs

UPDATE ON SAPP INTERCONNECTORS Mozambique - Malawi World Bank approved the finances. Detailed designs being done. Commissioning to be in 2009. CEC - SNEL second 220 kV Interconnector Total Transfer capacity for the 2x220 kV lines would be 500 MW. Zambian side finalized and to be funded by CEC. SNEL to be supported by the World Bank.

UPDATE ON SAPP INTERCONNECTIONS Zambia-Tanzania-Kenya 330 kV line Commissioning date shifted from 2008 to 2011. Heads of Agreement to be signed by the 3 Governments at the end of Oct 2007. Draft Power Purchase Agreement to be discussed by the 3 Gvts in Livingstone. Initial power proposed to come from Zambia then other SAPP countries.

SAPP Capacity Expansion Plans In order to avoid power shortages as early as 2007/8, the SAPP would have to spend US$4.3 billion to complete projects in progress and to rehabilitate some plants.

Southern African Power Pool www.sapp.co.zw THANK YOU