EPA’s 2014 Draft RIA EPA’s 2104 Draft RIA continues to rely heavily on PM2.5 co-benefits:

State Compliance Plans States with nonattainment (NA) areas must prepare SIPs describing their compliance plans, including: Emissions must be reduced in and around NA areas in an amount necessary to bring state into attainment New Source Review permitting requiring that all major new sources in the nonattainment area offset their new emissions with reductions in emissions from other sources either exiting or adding controls (“emission reduction credits”, ERCs) Other state-run programs, e.g. transportation controls, enhanced O&M, etc.

EPA’s Draft 2014 RIA Baseline for Analysis – Includes Clean Power Plan EPA established a baseline level of controls in order to estimate the incremental costs and benefits of attaining the alternative standards.” According to EPA, three steps were used to develop the baseline: First, we estimated 2025 base case emissions and air quality, reflecting “on the books” regulations (see Section 3.1.3 Emissions Inventories for a discussion of the rules included in the Base Case for this analysis). Second, we accounted for changes in ozone predicted to occur due to one potential approach for implementing the Clean Power Plan. Third, we identified additional controls that could be applied to demonstrate attainment of the current ozone standard of 75 ppb.” Using this “baseline” EPA projects that only 11 counties will exceed 75 ppb standard in 2025

EPA’s List of Controls Embedded in EPA’s Baseline

After Assuming Controls Sufficient to meet 75 ppb Std (and projecting out future air quality improvements), EPA Applies Additional Controls to meet 70 ppb

Additional Controls Beyond Baseline Assumed by EPA to Attain 70 ppb Std.

Additional Controls Beyond Baseline Assumed by EPA to Attain 65 ppb Std.

2014 Draft RIA Shows Areas Will Still Need to Rely on Unknown Controls

For California – EPA Estimates 100% Reliance on Unknown Controls

Relying on Unknown Controls May Force Areas to Reclassify to “Extreme” Under the CAA, only “extreme” ozone nonattainment areas are given the authority to rely on “new technologies” (§ 182 (e)(5)). As a result, nonattainment areas that cannot demonstrate attainment based on known technologies could face a difficult choice. Either they --   Voluntarily reclassify themselves under the CAA as “extreme,” accepting all of the extreme stationary source control requirements. Or Accept sanctions pursuant to §179 for failing to submit an approvable plan. Possible sanctions include a cutoff in highway funding, subject to limitations for certain projects; or 2 to 1 emission offsets for new or modified sources.

Ozone Background Levels Remain a Major Concern EPA’s 2014 Draft RIA confirms:

EPA Draft 2014 RIA Also Notes Potential for High Individual Background Estimates “Figure 2-11 also indicates that there are cases in which the model predicts much larger background proportions, as shown by the upper outliers in the figure. These infrequent episodes usually occur in relation to a specific event, and occur more often in specific geographical locations, such as at high elevations or wildfire prone areas during the local dry season.”