Western Wind and Solar Integration Study Phase 1 Jaakko Kiviluoma & Jaakko Rauhala 3.11.2016 PHYS-E6572 Advanced Wind Power Technology

Study area

Renewable penetration, % of yearly load PreSelected Real situation in the end of 2008 10 % 10 % wind, 1 % solar 20 % 20 % wind, 3 % in footprint; 10+1 outside 30 % 30+5 in footprint; 20+3 outside 16.11.2018

Study scenarios In-Area, IA Mega-Project, MP Local-Priority, LP Renewable penetration achieved independently in each state Mega-Project, MP Renewables produced in the best sites inside footprint area Local-Priority, LP 10 % capital cost advantage to in-state renewable production Considered most probable 16.11.2018

Study Objectives & Methods To investigate how the power system can handle increased renewable penetration Asses available methods to improve the use of wind and solar production Point out critical improvements needed Load increase is considered to be covered with new traditional production Renewables and new transmission added as extra Fixed prices for investments, fuel price and CO2-emissions Intra-state transmission ignored 16.11.2018

Study Data Data for years 2004, 2005 and 2006 Different wind data for forecast and actual wind Solar data only for large areas and hourly resolution Only distributed PV and CSP considered Every third day of wind data eliminated from hourly and 10-minute analysis Lack of existing big PV plants and small scale solar data 16.11.2018

Energy value, capacity value and geographic diversion Site selection Energy value, capacity value and geographic diversion

Market structure Situation during study: Study assumption: Bilateral production contracts and 37 individual balancing areas Study assumption: 14 transmission areas and 5 balancing areas Committed units selected on economical basis 16.11.2018

Study results

Production displacement Coal and gas price, CO2-price

Demand Side Management Power system balance Demand Side Management

Traditional unit commitment

Sensitivity analysis Different scenarios Fuel price Coal plant operational specifications Assumed minimum production at 40 % of nameplate New transmission Feasible only in MP 30 % New traditional generation Hydro 16.11.2018

Sub-hourly Scheduling Available spinning reserves not enough with 30 % scenarios Feasible to operate CC, GT and Hydro plants on sub-hourly basis also DSM the most efficient method Intra-day markets not considered 16.11.2018

Conclusions Study showed that 30 % scenarios are technically possible Require huge changes in current practices Benefits of renewable production undeniable Statistical analysis underestimated operational requirements The system can´t handle under-forecasting of wind If operational requirements are not fulfilled, the power grid might go offline 16.11.2018

Discussion