Erik Strahler UW-Madison 4/27/2008 Searching for Astrophysical Neutrinos in Coincidence with Gamma Ray Bursts Madison GRB Workshop Erik Strahler UW-Madison 4/27/2008

Outline Data Sample Simulation Event Selection Sensitivity and Discovery Potential Unblinding 11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM 2005-2006 MuDAQ GRB Search

05/06 Data Sample GRBs which triggered the Swift, Hete-II, and/or Integral Satellite in 2005-2006. 119 Bursts 2005-2006 AMANDA-II MuDAQ data sample Sieglinde mass filtering L1 Hit Calibration Modified Crosstalk Cleaning Bad OM Cleaning Good Amplitude, TOT, LE Time Selection JAMS Reconstructed Angle > 70 Degrees L2 Multiplicity Trigger Fired Direct Walk Reconstructed Angle > 80 Degrees L3 Add in L2 Wimp trigger (string triggered events) 16 Iteration Pandel Fit Reconstructed Angle > 80 Degrees 11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM 2005-2006 MuDAQ GRB Search

Burst Durations Quantified by the parameter T90 For Swift bursts, provided by Mike Stamatikos For HETE / Integral, conservative estimates based on light curves Take Min(Trigger Time, T90 Start Time) to be conservative Total on-time: 5343.825s GRB Trigger Time t90 Pre-Burst Post-Burst dt90 1s 11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM 2005-2006 MuDAQ GRB Search

Data Extraction Extract 2 hour intervals centered on each trigger Blind and separate a 10 minute window around each burst Blind longer regions for unique bursts 050820A and 060218 11 bursts not filtered, 14 bursts with no data taken 10 min 2 hour GRB Trigger 11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM 2005-2006 MuDAQ GRB Search

Detector Stability Use 2 hour windows for stability studies 7 bursts removed due to stability issues Final Data Set: 86 Northern Sky GRBS Event Rates Rate Distribution Time between Events 11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM 2005-2006 MuDAQ GRB Search

Simulation Processed identically to data Weighted to average WB prompt emission spectrum Flux Normalization: 4.5E-9 GeV s-1 sr-1 cm-2 Generator NUSIM Energy Range 10^1 – 10^8 GeV Zenith Range 80 < Zen < 180 Events/File 10000 Photon Sim. PTD Ice Model MAM AMASIM Aluminum-opt5 OM Sens Standard 11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM 2005-2006 MuDAQ GRB Search

Background Estimation Use entire 2005-2006 L3 dataset to estimate background Gives enough statistics for strong background rejection Scale to the summed GRB on-time Year Livetime L3 Events 2005 199.29 5.21M 2006 186.95 4.89M 1654.7 on-time background events at L3 11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM 2005-2006 MuDAQ GRB Search

Zenith Dependence Data and Signal MC show strong zenith dependence Optimize cuts as a function of zenith to account for this Place fake GRBs in 10 degree increments in zenith 11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM 2005-2006 MuDAQ GRB Search

Cut Parameters – Space Angle 11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM 2005-2006 MuDAQ GRB Search

Cut Parameters - Jkchi 11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM 2005-2006 MuDAQ GRB Search

Cut Parameters - Sigma 11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM 2005-2006 MuDAQ GRB Search

Cut Optimization Optimize for Model Discovery 5s observation in 90% of experiments Search for best cuts for summed contribution of all signal events Tight cuts to remove the summed background 11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM 2005-2006 MuDAQ GRB Search

MDP Optimization Space 11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM 2005-2006 MuDAQ GRB Search

Optimal Cuts Space Angle Likelihood Ratio 11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM 2005-2006 MuDAQ GRB Search

Where x = Zenith[Pandel] and Theta() is the unit step function. Optimal Cuts Sigma Space Angle < 4.6*Theta(120-x) + 3.7*Theta(x-120) Likelihood Ratio > 36 - 0.18*Theta(115-x)*(115-x) Paraboloid Error < 3.2 - 0.02*Theta(x-105)*(x-105) TOT_short + B10 + nB10 < 10 (Flare Checking) Where x = Zenith[Pandel] and Theta() is the unit step function. 11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM 2005-2006 MuDAQ GRB Search

Parameter Distributions Likelihood Ratio 11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM 2005-2006 MuDAQ GRB Search

Parameter Distributions Paraboloid Sigma 11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM 2005-2006 MuDAQ GRB Search

Cut Progression 11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM 2005-2006 MuDAQ GRB Search

Cut Progression 11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM 2005-2006 MuDAQ GRB Search

Cut Progression 11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM 2005-2006 MuDAQ GRB Search

Background Retained per GRB: ~ 10-5 Efficiency Background Retained per GRB: ~ 10-5 11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM 2005-2006 MuDAQ GRB Search

Final Distributions 11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM 2005-2006 MuDAQ GRB Search

Final Distributions Total GRB on-time: 5343.825s Apply final cuts to time scaled background for each individual burst On Time Scaled (L3) Final Cut Level 2005-2006 Data 1654.7 0.001 2005-2006 GRB Signal 0.509 0.202 11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM 2005-2006 MuDAQ GRB Search

Sensitivity and Discovery Potential MRF: 12.1 Flux: 5.4E-8 GeV s-1 sr-1 cm-2 Require 2 on time events for 5s discovery 90% chance to see MDF = 1% chance to see MDF = 1 11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM 2005-2006 MuDAQ GRB Search

Systematics Seasonal Variations Azimuthal Dependence Deadtime Effects “optimal-ness” of cuts Deadtime 11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM 2005-2006 MuDAQ GRB Search

Unblinding Kyler, Ignacio, Teresa have looked at it I think concerns have been addressed Presented in Analysis call last week Need to fix some timing issues raised by Mike 11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM11/16/2018 8:16:52 AM 2005-2006 MuDAQ GRB Search