Rainer Froese, Kathleen Kesner-Reyes and Cristina Garilao Changes in Species Composition in the Oceans Rainer Froese, Kathleen Kesner-Reyes and Cristina Garilao

What is AquaMaps? A collection of standardized digital distribution maps for 25,000 aquatic species Preliminary maps are computer-generated based on niche modelling of environmental suitability given the known preferences of a species Experts review, edit and approve maps (so far about 2,000) If species maintain their environmental preferences, then future distributions can be predicted Marine AquaMaps: Ready et al., Ecological Modelling, (2010)

Environmental predictors: depth sea temperature salinity primary production ice concentration distance to land

How does AquaMaps work?

Step 1: Getting Model Input Data depth range habitat (demersal, pelagic, oceanic, ..) bounding box coordinates FAO areas occurrence points Photo by K. Nilsson Atlantic cod Gadus morhua Linnaeus, 1758 Sources: FishBase – fishbase.org (fishes) SeaLifeBase – sealifebase.org (nonfishes) GBIF – gbif.org (geo-referenced occurrence data) Online biodiversity information systems are primary sources of key minimum input data.

Bounding Box N/S/W/E extent of native range FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department (FI), 2017 N/S/W/E extent of native range Derived from published maps or description of distribution Limits accepted points to native range

FAO Areas UN Fishery statistical areas status = native or endemic In the absence of a bounding box, we use the limits of the FAO areas where a species is reported as native or endemic, as a proxy for bounding box. UN Fishery statistical areas status = native or endemic proxy for bounding box

Step 2: Selecting “Good Point Data” Bounding box or FAO area limits serve as independent verification of the validity of occurrence records.

Step 3: Calculating Environmental Tolerances Global grid of 259,200 half degree cells Good cells are used to extract the range and frequency of environmental parameters within the species’ native range.

Step 3: Calculating Environmental Tolerances (cont’d) Environmental envelope Min = 25th percentile - 1.5 * interquartile or absolute minimum in extracted data (whichever is lesser) Max = 75th percentile + 1.5 * interquartile or absolute maximum in extracted data (whichever is greater) PrefMin = 10th percentile of observed variation in an environmental parameter PrefMax = 90th percentile of observed variation in an environmental parameter Surface values for species with min depth ≤ 200m Bottom values for species with min depth > 200m 2050/2100 modeled sea temperature, salinity and ice concentration (IPCC SRES A2 scenario) The environmental envelopes describe tolerances of a species with respect to each environmental parameter.

Step 4: Estimating Probability of Occurrence Predictor Preferred min max Min Max PMax Relative probability of occurrence Pc = Pbathymetryc x Ptemperaturec x Psalinityc x Pprimary productionc x Pice concentrationc x Pland distancec The overall probability of species occurrence in a given half-degree cell is product of the probabilities of each individual environmental parameter.

Step 5: Mapping Probability of Occurrence Present native range All suitable habitat

Step 5: Mapping Probability of Occurrence in Year 2050 2100 A2 emissions scenario assumes: independently operating, self-reliant nations continuously increasing population regionally oriented economic development IPCC A2 emissions scenario AquaMaps assumes species’ environmental preferences remains the same Predicted range by 2050

Using AquaMaps to show future changes in species composition

Overall predicted change in 2050, based on the IPCC scenario A2 and preliminary environmental preferences of 25,000 species (Jaccard distance). Color coding follows a power scale, with yellow indicating about 10% change, and dark red indicating 80-100% change. Changes south of Greenland, in the eastern Mediterranean, the center of the Oceans, and the Antarctic are mostly due to loss of species. Changes in the central Mediterranean and the Arctic are mainly due to new species. Blue areas indicate lack of data. Vertical bands in the eastern Pacific are artefacts from preliminary species maps that will be corrected. Some areas (e.g. Sea of Okhotsk) need to be examined to understand unexpected strong change in species.

Predicted loss in 2050, based on the IPCC scenario A2 and preliminary environmental preferences of 25,000 species. Color coding follows a power scale, with yellow indicating about 10% change, and dark red indicating 80-100% change.

Predicted gains in 2050, based on the IPCC scenario A2 and preliminary environmental preferences of 25,000 species. Color coding follows a power scale, with yellow indicating about 10% change, and dark red indicating 80-100% change.

Work Required Before Publication Find, review and fix „problematic“ species maps Use most likely IPCC scenario with most recent data for 2050 prediction of environmental conditions Rerun AquaMaps to create current and 2050 maps for 25,000 species Publish

Rainer Froese, Kathleen Kesner-Reyes and Cristina Garilao Thanks Rainer Froese, Kathleen Kesner-Reyes and Cristina Garilao