Commercial Aviation Safety Team 2006 Collier Trophy Nomination Dr. Michael Romanowski Aerospace Industries Association NAA Selection Committee Presentation February 6, 2007 Crystal Gateway Marriott Arlington, Virginia

Situation in Mid-90s Highlighted Need for Dramatic Action CAST 1998 FSF Briefing

CAST Has Saved Lives - Its Changed Our Safety Expectations & the Way We Manage Aviation Safety R By Todays Standards, Accidents in the Mid-90s Were Frequent AMR, NY Comair, Lexington CAST AMR, Cali ValueJet, Everglades Delta, Pensacola TWA, New York

Operations policy and procedures Airplane/pilot publications Approved maintenance program Maintenance, policy, and procedures Maintenance publications Safety program Training Safety Responsibilities Are Shared Safe Airplane + Safe Operation + Safe Infrastructure = Safe Air Travel Air Safety * Safe airplane design Safety enhancing technology development Flight and maintenance operations, recommendations, documents, training, and support Maintenance planning Safety related analysis Safety initiatives Aviation law Operations specification Rules and regulations Inspectors policy, procedures, and training Airline policy and procedures requirements Safety, health, environmental law, and regulations Navigation facilities/operations Airport facilities Departure enroute, arrival, approach policy, and procedures Air traffic control services Safety related analysis Manufacturers Government Operators * Including Air Traffic Service providers 5.1-9

CAST Came Together in 1997 to Form an Unprecedented Industry-Government Partnership Voluntary commitments Consensus decision-making Data driven risk management Implementation-focused Goals: Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal accident rate by 80% by 2007 Reach out internationally to reduce worldwide commercial aviation fatal accident rate

* Representing P&W and RR ** Observer AIA Airbus ALPA APA ATA IFALPA NACA Boeing GE* RAA FSF CAST Brings Key Stakeholders To Cooperatively Develop & Implement A Prioritized Safety Agenda Industry Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Government DOD FAA Aircraft Certification Flight Standards Air Traffic Operations Research NASA ICAO** JAA TCCA NATCA** NTSB** EASA IATA** AAPA** ATAC** APFA** Current composition

Data Drove CAST Focus Areas Act on Highest Priority Threats Initial Agenda: Approach & landing accidents Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT) Loss of control accidents Runway incursions Uncontained engine failures Weather-related accidents CAST 1998

Safety enhancement development Master safety plan Enhancement effectiveness Future areas of study Data analyses CAST Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT) Joint Safety Implementation Teams (JSIT) Joint Implementation Measurement Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT) Rigorous Processes Created to Guide Development & Implementation of CAST Plan

Portion of Total Fatality Risk Mitigated by the CAST Plan (2007 Implementation Values) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Total LOC Flt CFIT Fire/Explosion Runway Collision LOC GND Midair Crew Inc Eng-UCEF Sys-Comp Turbulence Evac Portion of Risk Risk Eliminated Risk Remaining CAST Fatal/Hull Loss Dataset – Security events excluded. Implementation of CAST Enhancements Has Significantly Improved Aviation Safety Does not include new remaining risk enhancements committed to in 2006

Resources vs. Risk Reduction Highlights the Power of the CAST Approach Completed + Plan (2007 Implementation Level) Completed + Plan (2020 Implementation Level) All JSIT Proposed Enhancements (2020 Implementation Level) Resource Cost ($ Billions) Risk Reduction Total Cost in $ (Millions) APPROVED PLAN 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Risk Eliminated Completed CAST-050 $ $ $ $ $ CAST 2002 Plan

Dollars/Flt. Cyc Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull Loss Accidents Historical cost of accidents per flight cycle Fatality Risk Reduction Savings ~ $56/Flight Cycle Or ~ $620 Million Dollars/Year Cost of accident fatalities following implementation of the CAST plan Cost Savings CAST Maintained Commitment to Implementation Despite Challenging Post-9/11 Economic Conditions CAST demonstrated that prioritized safety makes good business sense

CAST 65 SEs 40 complete 25 in work 76% reduction PAAST CFIT and ALAR ESSI 35 SEs JAA 11 SEs EASA 62% reduction COSCAP UEMOA (late 2005) COSCAP CIS Specific CIS Projects COSCAP NA, SA, SEA 27 SEs in work 60% reduction COSCAP BA (late 2005) COSCAP AM COSCAP GS (2006) Estimated Fatality Risk Reduction CAST Outreach Has Improved Aviation Safety World-wide

Summary l Unprecedented partnership & positive impact l Long-term industry & government commitment l Dramatically improved aviation safety in US and World-wide l Committed to continue to drive future safety improvements - Enable cooperative incident-level data sharing l CAST is deserving of the Collier Trophy for its outstanding achievement and dramatically improving the safety of commercial aviation and saving lives in the US and around the world

Questions COMMERCIAL AVIATION SAFETY TEAM

Generic model for achieving long term accident rate reduction Training SOPs Maximize existing systems Proactive data management Design solutions Accident Rate Time

Govt and Industry Focused Action Led to Dramatic Reduction in Wind Shear Accidents Wind Shear Accidents 727 New Orleans 7/9/ Doha 3/14/79 DC-9 Philadelphia 6/23/ Denver 8/7/ Pago 1/30/74 DC-9 Charlotte 7/2/94 L1011 Dallas-ft. Worth 8/2/85 DC-10 Faro 12/21/ Training/ Pilot Guide R Reactive Wind Shear Systems Predictive Wind Shear Systems Enhancements

CAST metrics to ensure implementation and effectiveness; identify areas for additional action Identify Prioritize Resolve Monitor CAST entered loop in 1997/98 Frequency Time Emerging risk due to system change Exploiting FOQA-type data can bring powerful system benefits

CAST Aviation Safety Information Analysis and Sharing (ASIAS) Concept for the Future Combining isolated data sources can leverage the power of safety information data sharing ASAP Legacy Weather AIDS NAIMS Firewall ECCAIRS PDARS Other NTSB ASRS ROMAN SDR NAOMS FOQA Possible safety issues