Draft 2013 Energy-Efficiency Forecast February 15, 2013 | Boston, ma Draft 2013 Energy-Efficiency Forecast Restructuring Roundtable Stephen J. Rourke VICE PRESIDENT, SYSTEM PLANNING

About ISO New England Not-for-profit corporation Created in 1997 to oversee New England’s restructured electric power system; regulated by Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Regional Transmission Organization Independent of companies doing business in markets; no financial interest in companies participating in markets Major responsibilities Maintain reliable operation of the electric grid Administer wholesale electricity markets Plan for future system needs

Energy-Efficiency (EE) Forecast Background

Long-term Load Forecast Projects Demand 10 Years Out Baseline forecast developed with: State and regional economic forecasts 40 years of New England weather history Other factors: US Dept of Energy projections of average retail prices New EE standards for household appliances Peak Demand Forecast 2012-2021 (megawatts) +1.5% per year Annual Energy Consumption Forecast 2012-2021 (gigawatt-hours) +0.9% Per year

Energy Efficiency is a Priority in New England Recent state EE spending and electric energy savings, 2009-2011 Total NE states’ spending on EE in three-year period: $1.4B Over $500 million spent in 2011 Total reduction in electricity use: 3,905 GWh About 1,580 GWh of electricity savings in 2011 Total summer peak demand savings: 549 MW Average annual summer peak demand reduction: 183 MW $1.4B spent 3,905 GWh (energy saved) 549 MW (peak reduced)

EE in Forward Capacity Market Annual Forward Capacity Market (FCM) auction commits resources to be available three years in the future EE measures participate alongside generation FCM provides a revenue stream that facilitates development of EE 2012 auction procured resources obligated for 2015-2016 33,455 MW total capacity that will be needed ~1,500 MW is EE EE in FCM has more than doubled since 2008 Energy efficiency Emergency Generation Active Real- Time Demand-response

Energy-Efficiency Forecast Model Developed in 2012 Previously, no well-established metrics for determining how much electricity will not be consumed in the future as a result of EE measures ISO-NE developed a forecast of “EE savings”—how much electric energy will not be used—beyond the 3-year FCM horizon (2016-2022) Forecast model based on future state EE budgets and amount of energy savings per dollar spent Data provided by states and/or EE program administrators (PA’s)

EE Forecast Model General Assumptions Annual budgets provided by the public utility commissions or representatives on their behalf are used in model Sources of EE funding include: System Benefits Charges Forward Capacity Market Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative Other Production cost allowed to grow over forecast period Based on the PA’s ability to spend growing EE budgets and potential for increasing production costs, ISO applied uncertainty factor to some states

2013 Energy-Efficiency Forecast Regional Results

Summary of 2013 EE Forecast Draft forecast results are similar to the 2012 forecast results Generally, when adjusted for the impacts of EE, forecasted energy use remains flat for the region Reductions in energy use in VT and RI Generally, demand reductions from EE slow peak growth rate in the region Program performance changes from 2012 forecast Regional production cost decreased slightly, resulting in an increase in energy reductions Peak-to-energy-ratios decreased slightly, resulting in smaller demand reductions from equivalent energy reductions Results vary by state

Regional EE Forecast Results (2016 to 2022) Total projected spending on energy efficiency: $5.6 billion Peak demand rises more slowly than with traditional forecast Average annual reduction in peak demand: 188 MW Total projected reduction over seven years: 1,314 MW In VT, forecasted peak demand declines Annual electricity consumption remains flat compared to traditional forecast Average annual energy savings: 1,319 GWh Total projected reduction over seven years: 9,233 GWh RI and VT forecasts show declining annual electricity consumption

Energy and Summer Peak EE Forecast Data GWh Savings Sum of States ME NH VT CT RI MA 2016 1,594 104 60 105 246 161 919 2017 1,494 97 57 232 150 861 2018 1,399 90 54 91 218 140 806 2019 1,309 84 51 204 131 754 2020 1,224 77 48 78 192 122 706 2021 1,144 71 46 73 180 114 660 2022 1,069 65 43 68 169 106 618 Total 9,233 588 359 596 1,441 924 5,324 Average 1,319 85 206 132 761 MW Savings 227 12 10 15 31 26 133 213 11 9 14 29 24 124 199 13 27 23 116 186 8 21 109 174 20 102 163 18 95 152 7 17 89 1314 67 59 87 181 149 768 188 110 12

New England Results: Lower Peak Demand Growth, Level Energy Demand New England: Summer 90/10 Peak (MW) New England: Annual Energy (GWh)

EE Measures Focus on Lighting

New England Winter Peaks Trending Down

Implications to the Power System Timing of necessary transmission upgrades Winter versus summer peak and energy impacts Declining load factor; minimum load issues Natural gas, nuclear, EE, DR, renewables Will this be our system?

Conclusions States continue to make large investments in EE ISO-NE worked successfully with stakeholders to integrate EE data into ISO’s long-term planning & forecast processes EE forecast shows the states’ investment in EE is having a significant impact on electric energy consumption and peak demand VT/NH planning study: analysis revised with new resources & transmission and EE forecast indicates about $260 million of previously identified transmission upgrades deferred For more information see www.iso-ne.com/eefwg

Energy-Efficiency Forecast State-by-State Results

Connecticut: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers Energy-efficiency results, 2009-2011: Total spending: $337.7 million Total energy saved: 1,009 GWh Annual average energy saved: 336.5 GWh Total peak demand savings: 127 MW Annual average: 42 MW Energy-efficiency forecast, 2016-2022: Total spending: $806 million Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 1,441 GWh Annual average: 206 GWh Projected total reduction in peak demand: 181 MW Annual average: 26 MW CT program administrators: CT Light & Power: http://www.cl-p.com/Home United Illuminating Co.: https://www.uinet.com/

Connecticut Peak and Annual Energy Consumption Forecast, 2012-2021

Maine: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers Energy-efficiency results, 2009-2011: Total spending: $53.4 million Total energy saved: 282 GWh Annual average: 94 GWh Total peak demand savings: 32 MW Annual average: 11 MW Energy-efficiency forecast, 2016-2022: Total spending: $202.7 million Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 588 GWh Annual average: 84 GWh Projected total reduction in peak demand: 67 MW Annual average: 10 MW ME Program Administrators: Efficiency Maine:  http://www.efficiencymaine.com/about Maine Public Service Commission: http://www.maine.gov/mpuc/electricity/index.shtml

Maine Peak and Annual Energy Consumption Forecast, 2012-2021

Massachusetts: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers Energy-efficiency results, 2009-2011: Total spending: $729.3 million Total energy saved: 1,828 GWh Annual average: 609.3 GWh Total peak demand savings: 264 MW Annual average: 88 MW Energy-efficiency forecast, 2016-2022 Total spending: $3.5 billion Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 5,324 GWh Annual average: 761 GWh Projected total reduction in peak demand: 768 MW Annual average: 120 MW MA program administrators: Cape Light Compact: http://www.capelightcompact.org/ Fitchburg Electric: http://www.unitil.com/customer-configuration?loc=http%3A//www.unitil.com/ Mass. Electric Co. (Nantucket Electric Co.): https://www1.nationalgridus.com/CorporateHub NSTAR: http://www.nstar.com/residential/ Western Mass. Electric Co.: http://www.wmeco.com/

Massachusetts Peak and Annual Energy Consumption Forecast, 2012-2021

New Hampshire: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers Energy-efficiency results, 2009-2011: Total spending: $58.6 million Total energy saved: 191.4 GWh Annual average: 63.8 GWh Total peak demand savings: 32 MW Annual average: 11 MW Energy-efficiency forecast, 2016-2022: Total spending: $183.1 million Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 359 GWh Annual average: 51 GWh Projected total reduction in peak demand: 59 MW Annual average: 8 MW NH program administrators: Public Service of New Hampshire: http://www.psnh.com/For-My-Home.aspx  Unitil: http://www.unitil.com/customer-configuration?loc=http%3A//www.unitil.com/ Granite State Electric Co.:  https://www1.nationalgridus.com/CorporateHub

New Hampshire Peak and Annual Energy Consumption Forecast, 2012-2021

Rhode Island: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers Energy-efficiency results, 2009-2011: Total spending: $90.2 million Total energy saved: 258.8 GWh Annual average: 86.2 GWh Total peak demand savings: 42 MW Annual average: 14 MW Energy-efficiency forecast, 2016-2022: Total spending: $538.5 million Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 924 GWh Annual average: 132 GWh Projected total reduction in peak demand: 149 MW Annual average: 21 MW RI program administrator: Narragansett Electric Co.: https://www1.nationalgridus.com/CorporateHub

Rhode Island Peak and Annual Energy Consumption Forecast, 2012-2021

Vermont: Energy Efficiency by the Numbers Energy-efficiency results, 2009-2011: Total spending: $102.6 million Total energy saved: 317 GWh Annual average: 105.6 GWh Total megawatts of peak saved: 46 MW Annual average: 16 MW Energy-efficiency forecast, 2016-2022: Total spending: $321.3 million Projected total reduction in energy consumption: 596 GWh Annual average: 85 GWh Projected total reduction in peak demand: 87 MW Annual average: 12 MW VT program administrators: Efficiency Vermont:  http://www.efficiencyvermont.com/Index.aspx Burlington Electric:  https://www.burlingtonelectric.com/page.php?pid=62&name=ee_incentives

Vermont Peak and Annual Energy Consumption Forecast, 2012-2021