CAPS Mission Statement

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Presentation transcript:

CAPS Mission Statement The Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) was established at the University of Oklahoma in 1989 as one of the first 11 National Science Foundation Science and Technology Center. Its mission was, and remains the development of techniques for the computer-based prediction of high-impact local weather, such as individual spring and winter storms, with the NEXRAD (WSR-88D) Doppler radar serving as a key data source.

Forecast Funnel Large Scale - provide synoptic flow patterns and boundary conditions to the regional scale flow. Regional Forecast - provide improved resolution for predicting regional scale events (large thunderstorm complexes, squall lines, heavy precipitation events) Storm Scale - predict individual thunderstorm and groups of thunderstorms as well as initiation of convection. Large Scale Regional Scale Storm Scale

ARPS System Add adas slide here…...

Current ARPS Forecast Configuration ARPS is applied every day at 48, 32, 20 km at horizontal resolutions for research purposes (verification and testing new algorithms) see: http://www.caps.ou.edu/wx

Verification of ARPS Forecasts ARPS is verified daily to determine the accuracy of the current formulation and to test new forecast components and analyses Example: hourly verification of surface quantities at Oklahoma City, (temperature, dew point, pressure and wind speed and direction) for the 36 hr Southern plains region (15km resolution) forecast initiated 00UTC September 6, 2002 Dashed lines represent observations and solid lines the model prediction

Future ARPS Forecast Configuration using OSCER Contribute to the NCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecast project (SREF) Conduct daily forecasts for verification of ARPS and new soil physics package Research in Data Assimilation (radar data retrieval) Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model simulations (Ensembles) Perform high resolution nested forecasts for severe weather

Proposed ARPS Forecast Configuration using OSCER AM Local Time PM Forecast Grid 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Conus 00Z (daily) ---30--- Conus 12Z (daily) ---30--- Conus 09Z SREF Ensembles-10 (daily) 240 Conus 21Z SREF Ensembles-10 (daily) 240 Regional-1 00Z (daily) -100- Regional-1 12Z (daily) -100- Severe Wx-1 15Z (daily) -256- Chart represents the number of processors required for each forecast and the length of the entry represents the wall time required by each forecast group. Table built by D. Weber (12/28/01).

OSCER Supercomputer Benchmarks ARPS was used to benchmark various computer systems during the OSCER supercomputer selection process. The benchmarks include single processor performance as well as parallel performance using the MPI paradigm. Note: a line with zero slope represents a perfect parallel machine (network and I/O) and lower numbers represent better performance.

OSCER Supercomputer Symposium September 12, 2002 Kelvin Droegemeier, Dan Weber, Ming Xue, Keith Brewster, Kevin Thomas, Jerry Brotzge, Eric Kemp, Jason Levit,Yunheng Wang

The Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms