Climate Change and Stormwater

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Presentation transcript:

Climate Change and Stormwater Guillaume Mauger Climate Impacts Group About CIG: we’re focused on developing information that’s “used by” instead of hypothetically useful.

Substantial Warming, Variable Rainfall 2015 (+3.5°F) (-10%)

Warner, Mass, Salathé, J Hydromet, 2014 More Intense Heavy Rains Heaviest rain events are projected to become +22% more intense* (range: +5 to +34%) by the 2080s. Modeling studies * Top 1% of daily rainfall totals in each year Warner, Mass, Salathé, J Hydromet, 2014

Downscaling relates the large to the small ~100-200 km (~60-120 mi) resolution ~6 km (~4 mi) Statistical / dynamical

Regional Climate Model Projections Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model. Two new regional model simulations, 1970-2099. Hourly Precipitation Bias-corrected to ~50 weather stations throughout W. WA CMIP5 Multi Model Ensemble

Online Tool Follow link to Tableau tool and show audience how it works. https://cig.uw.edu/resources/analysis-tools/how-will-heavy-rains-change-in-western-washington/

Percent Changes in Extreme Statistics Tab #1: Percent Changes Percent Changes in Extreme Statistics Follow link to Tableau tool and show audience how it works. Time Series https://cig.uw.edu/resources/analysis-tools/how-will-heavy-rains-change-in-western-washington/

Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) Curves Tab #2: IDF Curves Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) Curves Follow link to Tableau tool and show audience how it works. https://cig.uw.edu/resources/analysis-tools/how-will-heavy-rains-change-in-western-washington/

Tab #3: Validation Percent bias relative to Observations for both raw and bias-corrected data Follow link to Tableau tool and show audience how it works. https://cig.uw.edu/resources/analysis-tools/how-will-heavy-rains-change-in-western-washington/

Visualizing the Results Follow link to Tableau tool and show audience how it works. https://cig.uw.edu/resources/analysis-tools/how-will-heavy-rains-change-in-western-washington/

UW Climate Impacts Group cig.uw.edu gmauger@uw.edu (206) 685-0317 Questions? UW Climate Impacts Group cig.uw.edu gmauger@uw.edu (206) 685-0317

Online Tool Follow link to Tableau tool and show audience how it works. https://cig.uw.edu/resources/analysis-tools/how-will-heavy-rains-change-in-western-washington/

Global Model Rankings Projections: Domain = PNW Note: Change is relative to each GCM’s historical, meaning that these changes are not affected by biases.