Participatory Scenario Development and Sustainable Water Policies Claudia Pahl-Wostl Institute of Environmental Systems Research University of Osnabrück Coordinator HarmoniCOP & Human Dimension in Water Management Core Team HarmoniCA COP

Overview Sustainable Water Policy & Scenarios Topics for the next call Challenges Linkages European Policy Processes

What is policy?

Sustainable Water Policy Todays problems are complex and have to be solved in a world with increasing uncertainty Based on a polycentric understanding of policy making where different societal groups are involved and different measures are combined Increasing uncertainties require innovation and flexible policy processes Short term decisions need long term guidance

What is a scenario?

Scenarios A scenario can be defined as an internally consistent pathway into the future. It must be plausible within the context of the causal framework and the logic of the argumentation. Scenarios suggest themselves as guiding principles to combine factual analysis derived from observation and modelling with the knowledge, subjective perceptions elicited from stakeholder groups.

Scenarios in Decision Making Long term guidance – moving targets to guide short term decision making Explore the possibilities of alternative futures The policy relevance of scenarios depends on the process how they are derived

Scenarios as link between factual knowledge and subjective perceptions

Models and information in processes of social learning Analysis Actor Network - participatory Process Analysis Data “Perceptions Mental Models" "Facts" Model Structure Scenarios

Social Learning (HarmoniCOP – Harmonizing Collaborative Planning / www Social Learning (HarmoniCOP – Harmonizing Collaborative Planning / www. harmonicop.info) Explore the role of social learning (recognize individual framings, trust as base for cooperation, interdependencies) in river basin management. Improve knowledge about and current practices in stakeholder and public participation and the use of ICT tools based on the notion of social learning. Produce practical guidance in the form of a handbook and training courses. COP

Topics in the next call Scenarios for Water Demand and Availability Methods for Integrated Water Resources Management and Transboundary Issues Water Stress Complementary – at different scales in time, space, issues

Topics - Scales Scenarios MIWRM Stress

Some potential Linkages

Water Shortage – Negotiating Integrated Solutions

Scenarios for Water Stress in Europe Alcamo et al, 2001

Water Stress = Water Demand of a region exceeds Supply Management Options Changes in Lifestyle Technology Institutions Diversion of rivers Agriculture Industry Households Rivers Rain

Case Metropolitan Area of Barcelona The situation Migration of the wealthy to the outer city belt Poorer residents in city center financing development of belt. Water comsumption per inhabitant - City 120 l/day, - Belt 200 l/day Drought conditions increasing

Water supply in Ter reservoir The solutions under consideration Technical: Diversion of the Ebro river Negotiated social: Formation of neighbourhood groups, new equitable pricing regimes for fair demand management (e.g. block pricing with low price for basic demand) Integration of policies - landuse, regional planning and water management policies

How to cope with varying demand and supply?

Lake Zürich The situation Supply capacity designed to meet maximum daily demand One severe drought condition in 1976 caused decision to increase capacity Demand dropped and resulted in unused capacities. Typical situation in many parts of eastern Germany – who pays? 1 9 2 4 6 8 2000 Year Capacity and Demand (relative) Peak Demand Supply Capacity Average Alternative management strategies under consideration Negotiated social: Flexible regimes of coordinating supply management with demand management. Use pricing to manage average demand. Use information campaigns to manage peak demand.

Challenges for Water Resources Management Tradition in the engineering sciences Technical approach to problem solving Based on the idea of prediction and control of the environment by technology (e.g. waste water treatment, flood control, water supply) Include the “human dimension” Develop integrated, flexible solutions

Urgent needs for research and implementation In the light of increasing uncertainty adaptive and participatory management is crucial! Requires an improved understanding of the complex dynamics of societal decision making processes and the role of information therein. Scenario may provide guidance to “avoid undesirable future developments” and/or “avoid lock-in developments” by choosing short-term decisions that maintain maximum of degrees of freedom and flexibility in the future.

Scenarios - Challenges Long-term scenarios (alternative futures) not yet used in water policy Integration across scales Combination of modelling and participatory approaches Identification of potential non-linearities in future developments, increase in vulnerability

Water Stress Challenges Integration of technologies, economic instruments and institutional changes for developing innovative solutions to dealing with water stress. Development of procedures for the „fair“ allocation between competing demand. Development of methods for the participatory assessement and implemenation of solutions.

Policy Processes European Water Framework Directive (WFD) European Water Initiative (EWI)

WFD – Some challenges Implementation given the current institutional structure and management styles Extension of the EU – Candidate countries Major investments in infrastructure Different culture in policy and participation

EWI – some Challenges Not binding for the countries involved Incentive will partly be monetary and major investments will be made Stakeholder driven process Huge cultural and political differences

Concluding remarks Water is the resource problem of the 21st century Major investments of more required in the next decade to achieve the Johannesburg targets and to guarantee that access save access to water to a growing human population. Who will guarantee that the investments are used to increase economic, ecologic and social sustainability? Europe is in a unique position in bringing together expertise from science, business and politics Europe should take a leading role in managing water resources and build new partnerships. Research on the topics open for the next call well embedded into policy processes can make a major contribution for this to happen.