INDIA: Hunger, Poverty and Vulnerability during Fast Pace of Economic Growth Abusaleh Shariff National Council of Applied Economic Research New Delhi - 110 002 E-mail: ashariff@ncaer.org Taking Action for the World’s Poor and Hungry People Beijing, China. October 17-19, 2007

Macro-National Perspective Essential Towards Faster and More Inclusive Growth – A New Vision ! Sectoral Growth – sectors of production and distribution – fast pace of growth in Services, followed by Industry. Agriculture is cause of worry! Labour mobility from inefficient to efficient sectors is most difficult ! 11 November 2018

Macro-National Perspective 11th Plan Development programmes and projects must link themselves with the macro-national objectives 9 % GDP GR /32 % Savings Rate / 35% Investment Bharat Nirman – Infrastructure/Information/water Nat. Rural Employment Guarantee JN-Urban Renewal Mission Inclusive Development –ICDS/Nat. Rural Health Mission /Sanitation A set of Monitorable Targets 11 November 2018

Structure of Economy, Labour Force and Relative Productivity (RP) changes 11 November 2018

Macro-Regional Growth Regional development and political economy within the multi-party coalition frame is important. Equity, inclusiveness and people’s participation Balance between management of the programmes and adhoc political interferences. 11 November 2018

Balanced Regional/State level Development Factors that prevents growth from reaching specific regions and sectors for example where the poor are concentrated – UP, Bihar, Orissa etc – agriculture, informal self-employed, casual labourers etc. To ensure that growth strategies translate into poverty reduction, there is a need to further strengthen the understanding as to how inter-sectoral mobility can be enhanced. 11 November 2018

Vulnerability and Hunger 11 November 2018

….Vulnerability and Hunger 11 November 2018

Pro-Poor & Equitious Growth National objective as well as a dominant part of the MDGs – global concern as well. India hosts the largest number of poor compared to any country in the world. 300 million – about a quarter of all Indians. Programme personnel and Evaluators need to strengthen the understanding of what keeps the poor from participating in the growth process. 11 November 2018

Rural – Urban Linkages How can the urban-rural linkages and inter-sectoral mobility can be enhanced within the growing economy context? The growth story of India is highly urban biased! Strengthening urban-rural linkages and strategies to improve rural productivity require more attention. Growth causes poverty reduction more effectively when it occurs in sectors and regions where most of the poor work for living– for example, agriculture sector in India. 11 November 2018

Gender Equity Given the uniqueness of Indian patriarchy which favours absolute control of resources by men, it is important to ensure programme focus on Women. The extension of this approach is to cover children who have a limited voice in programmes. All development parameters which have individualistic relevance are gender blind. Gender Sensitivity essential in education, health, nutrition, employment generation and social safety net programmes. Child focus is necessary as they are future Human Capital and Resource. 11 November 2018

Social-Group Identity and Equity India is unique with respect to its spectacular plurality in terms of religious and caste identities. Such identities are so revealing and upfront that these very identities must be used to ensure equity in programme and project access. Focus on Dalits, Adivasis and Minority Muslims is essential. Recent fast economic growth should exhibit better policy management so as to champion policies for social inclusion. There is ample evidence across the world that high growth can be achieved alongside policies for social inclusion. 11 November 2018

Poverty and Vulnerability 11 November 2018

Head Count Ratio (HCR) and Growth of GDP Numbers on top of the bar indicate number of poor in million 11 November 2018 Source: Different NSSO Rounds and 61st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey 365 days reference period

Hunger 11 November 2018

Malnutrition 11 November 2018

Change in Food Basket Shift Away from Cereal Consumption The food habits even among the poorer households have changed over years This is more due to improvements in food supply especially after mid 1970 since the introduction of Green Revolution – HYV and chemical fertilizers Increase in Consumption of Fruit, Vegetables, meat and fish products 11 November 2018

Incidence of Poverty (HCRs) by State - 2004-05 ALL INDIA Based on 30 days reference period 11 November 2018 Source: NSSO 61st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey.

Incidence of Poverty (HCRs) by State - 2004-05 RURAL Based on 30 days reference period 11 November 2018 Source: NSSO 61st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey

Incidence of Poverty (HCRs) by State - 2004-05 URBAN Based on 30 days reference period 11 November 2018 Source: NSSO 61st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey

Incidence of Poverty (HCRs) by Source of Household Income - 2004-05 Based on 30 days reference period 11 November 2018 Source: NSSO 61st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey

Workforce Participation Rate (major time criterion) for 15-64 years of age, 2004-05 11 November 2018

Distribution of Workforce Aged 15-64 according to Nature of Individual’s work 11 November 2018

Average Number of Days Worked for 15-64 Years old, All India 11 November 2018

Average Daily Wage of Agri. and Non-Agri Average Daily Wage of Agri. and Non-Agri. Laborers, aged 15-64 years, All India 11 November 2018

Average Daily Wage of Agricultural and Non-agricultural Laborers aged 15-64, Rural-Urban Group 11 November 2018

Average No. of Agri. Wage Days among 15-64 Year old by State 11 November 2018

Average No. of Non-Agri. Wage Days among 15-64 Year old by State 11 November 2018

Average Monthly Salary for Aged 15-64 who Reported Salary as Source of Income, All India 11 November 2018

Average Monthly Salary for Aged 15-64 who Reported Salary as Source of Income, Total 11 November 2018

Incidence of Poverty (HCRs) - 2004-05 by Household Source of Income and Social Group Based on 30 days reference period 11 November 2018 Source: NSSO 61st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey

Incidence of Poverty (HCRs) by State among the Agriculture Labour in India - 2004-05 Based on 30 days reference period 11 November 2018 Source: NSSO 61st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey

Incidence of Poverty (HCRs) - 2004-05 among Casual Labour in India Based on 30 days reference period 11 November 2018 Source: NSSO 61st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey

Incidence of Poverty (HCRs) - 2004-05 Levels of Education and Place of Residence Based on 30 days reference period 11 November 2018 Source: NSSO 61st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey

Incidence of Poverty (HCRs) - 2004-05 by Levels of Education and Social Groups Based on 30 days reference period 11 November 2018 Source: NSSO 61st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey

MPCE Class distributions by SRCs - 2004-05 11 November 2018

MPCE according to Urban Size Class - 1999-00 Based on 365 days reference period 11 November 2018 Source: NSSO 61st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey

Proportion of Population Covered through the Issuance of Ration Cards by Poverty Status - 2004-05 Based on 30 days reference period 11 November 2018 Source: NSSO 61st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey

The Poor not Covered by the Issuance of Ration Card by State - 2004-05 Based on 30 days reference period 11 November 2018 Source: NSSO 61st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey

The Non-poor Covered by the Issuance of Ration Card by State - 2004-05 Based on 30 days reference period 11 November 2018 Source: NSSO 61st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey

Thank You 11 November 2018