San Francisco Department of Public Health

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San Francisco Department of Public Health Trends in percent time spent viremic among persons newly diagnosed with HIV, San Francisco, CA, USA, 2008-2016 Alison Hughes, PhD, MPH Ling Hsu, MPH Susan Scheer, PhD, MPH San Francisco Department of Public Health San Francisco, CA, USA

Conflicts of Interest None to declare.

Background Virologic suppression benefits individuals and reduces transmission. Risk of sexual HIV transmission increases as HIV viral load increases. Persons newly diagnosed with HIV are at greater risk of co-morbidities and transmission until ART initiation and sustained viral suppression.

Number of new HIV diagnoses and viral suppression by year of diagnosis, San Francisco, 2008-2016. 85% 40%

Objectives Examine the amount of time spent viremic among persons newly diagnosed with HIV in San Francisco. Determine if any differences by: Year of HIV diagnosis Demographic factors Clinical factors  

Methods Inclusion criteria: HIV diagnosis during 2008-2016 San Francisco resident at time of diagnosis Alive 12 months after HIV diagnosis ≥2 viral load tests within 12 months after HIV diagnosis

Method for estimating time spent >10000 copies/ml VL1 VL2 Example for hypothetical individual Orange shaded area shows the time spent above 10000 copies/ml VL4 124 days spent above 10000 copies/ml 34% of the 12 months after HIV diagnosis VL3 88 124 211 References: Gardner CROI 2014; Marks AIDS 2015; Buchacz CROI 2017

Multivariate regression Analysis Methods Multivariate regression Exposure: year of HIV diagnosis Outcome: days spent above each viral threshold in 12 months after diagnosis (offset parameter=number of days observed) Covariates: gender housing status transmission category CD4+ lymphocyte count race/ethnicity health insurance type age time from HIV diagnosis to ART initiation

Transmission category MSM 1862 (73%) 560 (72%) PWID 168 (7%) 41 (5%) Included n (%) Excluded Total 2556 (100%) 780 (100%) Gender Male 2292 (90%) 708 (91%) Female 183 (7%) 49 (6%) Trans female 81 (3%) 23 (3%) Transmission category MSM  1862 (73%) 560 (72%) PWID 168 (7%) 41 (5%) MSM-PWID 318 (12%) 104 (13%) Heterosexual 157 (6%) 39 (5%) Other/Unidentified 51 (2%) 36 (5%) Age at HIV diagnosis 16-24 years 253 (10%) 114 (15%) 25-29 years 400 (16%) 172 (22%) 30-39 years 798 (31%) 242 (31%) 40-49 years 715 (28%) 170 (22%) 50+ years  390 (15%) 82 (11%) Housing status at HIV diagnosis Homeless 220 (9%) 88 (11%) Insurance at HIV diagnosis Public  648 (25%) 162 (21%) Private 1065 (42%) 218 (28%) None 570 (22%) 256 (33%) Missing 273 (11%) 144 (19%) Time from HIV diagnosis to ART initiation 0-7 days 316 (12%) 57 (7%) 8-30 days 456 (18%) 25 (3%) 31-90 days 670 (26%) 36 (5%) 91-365 days 509 (20%) 65 (8%) No known ART 605 (24%) 597 (77%)

Mean percent time spent above each viral threshold among newly diagnosed persons, San Francisco, 2008-2016

Cochran-Armitage test for trend p<0.0001 for each threshold Percent time spent above each viral threshold during 12 months after HIV diagnosis by year of HIV diagnosis, San Francisco, 2008-2016. Cochran-Armitage test for trend p<0.0001 for each threshold

Multivariable factors associated with person time >200 copies/ml Characteristic Adjusted Rate Ratio (95% CI) Year of HIV diagnosis (numeric) 0.96 (0.95, 0.97) MSM-PWID (vs MSM) 1.15 (1.06, 1.24) Age 25-29 years (vs 50+ years) 1.1 (1, 1.2) Homeless (vs housed) 1.12 (1.02, 1.22) CD4 count 0-199 (vs 500+) 0.87 (0.81, 0.94) CD4 count 200-349 (vs 500+) 0.89 (0.83, 0.96) Time from HIV diagnosis to ART 31-90 days (vs 0-7 days) 1.21 (1.11, 1.32) 91-365 days (vs 0-7 days) 1.7 (1.54, 1.86) No known ART use within 1 year after HIV diagnosis (vs 0-7 days) 1.78 (1.62, 1.95) *No significant differences by gender, race/ethnicity or insurance type.

Limitations Date of diagnosis vs. HIV acquisition No viral load information before HIV diagnosis Misclassification of outcome Assumes linear relationship Less reliable if great amount of time between VL pairs Loss to follow-up Unmeasured confounding ART prescription vs. adherence Social factors not recorded in HIV registry

Discussion Lower CD4 count associated with decreased time spent viremic Results likely underestimate time spent viremic due to exclusion criteria Newly diagnosed persons with fewer than two viral loads were excluded (23%) Vulnerable populations, including younger ages and homeless individuals, were more likely to be excluded Adjusted RRs biased towards null

Conclusions Time spent above each viremic level decreased significantly among newly diagnosed persons from 2008 to 2016 and likely contributed to the decreased HIV incidence observed. PWID (including MSM-PWID) and younger age spent more person-time viremic. Homeless individuals spent more person-time >200 copies/ml.