Trends in Enrollment, Affordability & Financial Aid NYSAIS Trustee Governance Conference December 9, 2017 Mark J. Mitchell Vice President, NAIS mitchell@nais.org
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5-Year Trending in… Affordability Aid and Admission Activity Demographics Conversations
Affordability
Who Can Afford It? In New York state (2017), 9th Grade Day Tuition, 2016-17 Full-Pay Income NAIS Day $27,970 $175,165 NAIS Bdg-Day $35,270 $200,775 NYSAIS $42,400 $247,905 NYC Day Schools $45,215 $259,010 Source: NAIS Demographic Ctr In New York state (2017), Median HH income = $73,425 11.9% earn over $200K In New York City (2017), Median HH income = $65,171 11.3% earn over $200K Sources: Tuition data from NAIS DASL; Full-pay income based on SSS EFC Simulator (Assumptions: 2 working parents, 2 children, 1 child enrolled, one parent earns $25K, no net worth, standard taxes, CO residents for NAIS calcs, NY residents for NY calcs, no COLA)
Pace of Change Data sources: NAIS DASL, US Census Dept
Pct Change in Income and Tuition in New York In New York City, median HH income projected to grow 25.2% by 2022 In New York state, median income projected to grow 25.7% by 2022 Sources: NAIS Demographic Center for income data; NAIS DASL for tuition data
Financial Aid and Admissions Activity
Total Enrollment Source: NAIS DASL, cohort sample
Admission Activity Highlights, Completed Applications Source: NAIS DASL, cohort sample
Admission Activity Highlights, Acceptance Rate Source: NAIS DASL, cohort sample
Admission Activity Highlights, Yield Rate Source: NAIS DASL, cohort sample
Financial Aid Activity, % Enrolled Rec’g FA Source: NAIS DASL, cohort sample
47.3% jump for NYC day schools Financial Aid Activity, Dollars Awarded (000’s) 47.3% jump for NYC day schools Source: NAIS DASL, cohort sample
Financial Aid Activity, Discount Rate Source: NAIS DASL, cohort sample
Family Income Quintiles, 2013 (US Census Bureau) Trend In Aid Awarding Family Income Quintiles, 2013 (US Census Bureau) 2010-2011 2015-2016 Pct Pt Difference $0 - $29,000 11.8% 9.0% -2.8 $29,001 - $51,000 13.1% 9.7% -3.4 $51,001 - $78,000 19.1% 14.3% -4.8 $78,001 - $121,000 26.0% 24.3% -1.7 Over $121,000 30.0% 42.6% 12.6 Top 5%: Over $217,000 6.2% 11.7% 5.5 Source: SSS processing system database, analysis of approx. 35,000 awards in each year studied
Demographics
NY School-Age Population Projection, 2017 to 2022 Statewide, percentage of households with school-age children expected to drop by 2.2% In NYC, percentage of households with school-age children expected to drop by 1.9% In NYC, population of children 0 to 17 projected to grow just 0.12%. Statewide, a 0.06% decrease is projected. Source: NAIS Demographic Center
NYC NY State NY School-Age Population Trend Age % Growth 2010-2017 % Proj Growth 2017-2022 NYC 0 to 4 -3.01 -0.53 5 to 9 -0.04 1.98 10 to 13 -1.55 0.48 14 to 17 -4.45 -1.66 NY State -4.16 -0.87 -1.76 1.38 -3.12 0.46 -5.45 -1.33 Source: NAIS Demographic Center
% of Population by Race, Ethnicity NYC 2017 2022 Projected Hispanic, any race 29.2 29.4 White, Non Hispanic 30.1 29.0 Black 25.4 25.3 Asian 14.1 14.6 American Indian, Alaska Native 0.79 0.83 Other 14.0 14.4 Two or More Races 4.8 5.2 NY State 2017 2022 Projected Hispanic, any race 18.7 19.1 White, Non Hispanic 54.6 53.4 Black 16.4 16.5 Asian 8.5 8.9 American Indian, Alaska Native 0.63 0.66 Other 8.2 Two or More Races 3.8 4.1
Conversations
Net Tuition Revenue Goal Enrollment Goal Meet enrollment, Miss NTR Price, value proposition? Meet enrollment, Meet NTR Composition, mission-appropriate? Net Tuition Revenue Goal Miss enrollment, Miss NTR Viability, market perception? Miss enrollment, Meet NTR Diversity, outreach?
Trending Topics, Issues Lower school demand…the financial aid dilemma Millennial parents…values and preferences Financial aid terminology…Indexed, Individualized, Sliding Scale, Flexible Tuition
Leveraging Your Role Establish or affirm the primary purpose and goal of the aid investment Specify and diversify financial aid funding Ensure resources for staff development in practices and leadership skills Articulate community-wide benefits of the aid investment
Mark J. Mitchell, NAIS Vice President mitchell@nais.org, 202-973-9766
Delivering on The Purpose? Source: SSS State of Financial Aid Survey, 2016 back