Reducing Hunger and Extreme Poverty: towards a coherent policy agenda Prabhu Pingali Director Agricultural and Development Economics Division (ESA)

First let us see the current situation First let us see the current situation. We estimate that in the period 2001-2003 there were 854 million undernourished people world wide. This corresponds to about one in seven of the world’s population. 820 million people are hungry in developing countries. This corresponds to one in six of their population. In addition, there are 25 million hungry in the transition countries, and 9 million in the industrialized countries. Most of the hungry people are found in Asia: around 60 percent. India and China alone account for almost half (42 percent). However, it is in sub-Saharan Africa that we find the highest incidence of hunger. In this region, one in three of its population are chronically undernourished. It is home to 24 percent of the world’s undernourished people.

Now let us look at what happened since 1990-92 Now let us look at what happened since 1990-92. Since then, the number of undernourished people in the developing countries has diminished by only 3 million: from 823 to 820 million. This result contrasts starkly with the 37 million reduction achieved in the 1970s and the 100 million reduction in the 1980s, and it means that virtually no progress has been made towards the WFS target. Moreover, the most recent trends are cause for concern. A reduction of 26 million up to 1995-97 was all but wiped out by an increase of 23 million in the subsequent years. Considering population growth, the stagnant overall numbers corresponded to a reduction in the proportion of undernourished people in the developing countries from 20 to 17 percent. However, progress was still much slower than during the previous two decades. Among the regions: Only Asia and the Pacific and Latin America and the Caribbean reduced the number of undernourished people. However, for both regions progress is still too slow to reach the target. Sub-Saharan Africa saw an increase in the number, but for the first time in decades, the proportion of undernourished people declined: from 35 to 32 percent (after having reached 36 percent in 1995-97). The Near East and North Africa saw an increase in both the number and the proportion of undernourished people, but it remains the region with the lowest incidence of hunger. Thus, at the regional level, only Asia and the Pacific and Latin America and the Caribbean have made progress towards the WFS target, but neither region is close to reaching it.

PROSPECTS FOR ACHIEVEING THE MDG TARGET OF HALVING THE PROPORTION OF UNDERNOURISHED PEOPLE LOOK MORE PROMISING, ALSO AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL. IN CONTRAST TO THE EARLIER GRAPHIC DEPICTING REGIONAL TRENDS TOWARDS THE WFS GOAL, HERE WE SEE PROGRESS IN REDUCING THE PROPORTION OF UNDERNOURISHED. ALL DEVELOPING COUNTRY REGIONS, EXCEPT THE NEAR EAST AND NORTH AFRICA HAVE MADE INROADS TOWARDS REDUCING THE PREVALANCE OF UNDERNOURISHMENT, AND IN THE CASES OF ASIA AND THE PACIFIC AND LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN PROGRESS HAS BEEN QUITE SIGNIFICANT. IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA, RECENT PROGRESS IN REDUCING THE PREVALENCE OF UNDERNOURISHMENT IS TO BE NOTED. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DECADES, THE SHARE OF UNDERNOURISHED PEOPLE IN THE REGION SAW A SIGNIFICANT DECLINE: FROM 35 PERCENT IN 1990-92 TO 32 PERCENT IN 2001-03, AFTER HAVING REACHED 36 PERCENT IN THE MID-NINETIES. THIS REPRESENTS AN ENCOURAGING DEVELOPMENT, BUT, WITH ONE IN THREE OF ITS POPULATION STILL UNDERNOURISHED THE TASK CONFRONTING THE REGION REMAINS DAUNTING. BY CONTRAST, IN THE NEAR EAST AND NORTH AFRICA, WE SEE THAT THE PROPORTION OF UNDERNOURISHED HAS ACTUALLY INCREASED SINCE THE 1990-92 BASELINE. THIS IS THE ONLY REGION TO SHOW A TREND WHICH MOVES AWAY FROM THE MDG TARGET. HOWEVER, AMONG THE DEVELOPING COUNTRY REGIONS, IT REMAINS THE ONE WITH THE LOWEST PREVALENCE OF UNDERNOURISHMENT

Lessons in hunger & poverty reduction Agriculture lead growth is critical Safety net programs for meeting immediate hunger needs are crucial. Pro-poor institutions are vital Peace, stability and good governance are essential Development assistance needs to be targeted better In speeding up our efforts to reduce hunger, we can rely on what has been learnt from successful experiences. The first lesson is that agricultural growth is critical. Some 70 percent of the poor live in rural areas, where agriculture is the key sector. A focus on agriculture is critical. A further lesson is that we need to attack hunger directly. Hunger is a consequence but also a cause of poverty. Hunger negatively affects health and labour productivity. Those who are both poor and hungry get stuck in hunger a hunger-poverty trap. Targeted interventions to ensure access to food are needed. Technology can play an important role, but it must favour small-scale farmers and be adapted to local conditions.

Designing a coherent agenda for hunger and poverty reduction Focus on the hotspots Focus on the long term while responding to immediate needs Enhance productivity of smallholder agriculture Seek complementarities between trade and domestic policy Increase effectiveness of Official Development Assistance

Designing a coherent agenda for hunger and poverty reduction Ensure complementarities of public resources, domestic and international Create en environment conductive to private investment Make PRSPs more inclusive in addressing food security and rural development Combine poverty reduction with increased provision of global public goods