Affilliated to the University of Lausanne, Switzerland Europe-wide fertility trends since the 1990s: turning the corner from declining first birth rates Marion Burkimsher Affilliated to the University of Lausanne, Switzerland

Decline in fertility rates TFRs across Europe in 1990s (& before); Introduction Decline in fertility rates TFRs across Europe in 1990s (& before); All turned corner and started rising just before or just after 2000. First birth fertility rates (TFR1) are ‘engine’ of TFR rise: TFR1 starts rising same year as TFR or precedes it. Change in TFR1 usually biggest contributor to change in TFR. Postponement had caused fertility rates to be deflated: Rise had been expected, caused by declining postponement [1] The change from decline to rise was Europe-wide: is there an overarching explanation? Individual countries will have their own peculiarities. [1] Bongaarts, John and Feeney, Griffin. (1998). On the quantum and tempo of fertility. Population and Development Review 24(2): 271-291.

Cause(s) of change in trajectory from decline to increase? Declining postponement, i.e. declining ΔMAB1? [1] Increasing variability in MAB1, i.e. wider fertility curve? [1] Increase in peak rates, i.e. higher fertility curve? [1] Change in early fertility (pre-modal age) behaviour? [2] Change in late fertility (post-modal age) behaviour? [2] [1] Bongaarts, John and Tomas Sobotka. (2012) A Demographic Explanation for the Recent Rise in European Fertility. Population and Development Review, 38: 83–120. Focussed on data from Netherlands, Czech Rep, Sweden and Spain [2] McDonald, Peter and Rebecca Kippen. 2011. Forecasting Births, Feature Article, Cat. no. 2051.0, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra. Australian data

Data source and analysis / presentation What caused the transition? 15 countries, published in Human Fertility Database (HFD) For each country, the trends are normalised to the year of minimum TFR1 (Y0) - that year is specific to each country Compare what was happening in the 3 years before Y0 to the 3 years after What caused the transition? (NB Different factors might kick in later to sustain the increase)

Trends in TFR1 1992-2009 for 15 European countries TFR1 = fertility rate for 1st births. ‘Normal’ max. = 1 Complement = childlessness rate All reached min. 1995-2002

Relative TFR1 in successive years cf. to each country’s Y0 Observations: Changes more marked for some countries Rise may be more subdued than decline

Cause(s) of change in trajectory from decline to increase? Declining postponement, i.e. declining ΔMAB1? Increasing variability in MAB1, i.e. wider fertility curve? Increase in peak rates, i.e. higher fertility curve? Change in early fertility (pre-modal age) behaviour? Change in late fertility (post-modal age) behaviour?

Trends in postponement rates Year-on-year changes in MAB1

Trends in postponement rates Year-on-year changes in MAB1 3yr before/after Y0 summary Observations: No universal change in postponement rates Some countries went down, others went up

Cause(s) of change in trajectory from decline to increase? Declining postponement, i.e. declining ΔMAB1? Increasing variability in MAB1, i.e. wider fertility curve? Increase in peak rates, i.e. higher fertility curve? Change in early fertility (pre-modal age) behaviour? Change in late fertility (post-modal age) behaviour?

Y-3 Y0 Y+3 TFR1 = area under curve Curve left-skewed, esp. E Europe Curves for W Europe wider and lower Decline of peak, then….?

Cause(s) of change in trajectory from decline to increase? Declining postponement, i.e. declining ΔMAB1? Increasing variability in MAB1, i.e. wider fertility curve? Increase in peak rates, i.e. higher fertility curve? Change in early fertility (pre-modal age) behaviour? Change in late fertility (post-modal age) behaviour?

Trends in standard deviation of MAB1 (width of fertility curve)

Trends in standard deviation of MAB1 (width of fertility curve) 3yr before/after Y0 summary Observations: Almost all countries had ongoing increase Some the rate of increase slackened off Others the rate of increase accelerated

Cause(s) of change in trajectory from decline to increase? Declining postponement, i.e. declining ΔMAB1? Increasing variability in MAB1, i.e. wider fertility curve? Increase in peak rates, i.e. higher fertility curve? Change in early fertility (pre-modal age) behaviour? Change in late fertility (post-modal age) behaviour?

Trends in peak rates of ASFR1 (height of fertility curve)

Trends in peak rates of ASFR1 (height of fertility curve) 3yr before/after Y0 summary Observations: On average, significant decline before Y0 In 3 years after Y0, change in peak rate ~ 0

Conclusion / 1 On average, across all countries, increase in area under fertility curve came from increasing width of curve, not increase in height Fertility curve had already been widening for years beforehand (almost everywhere). But when decline in peak rates slowed, then increasing width could then compensate (even if the peak continued to decline a little), so area under the curve started to increase But - each country slightly different, so different contributions from change in width / height

Example: Hungary

Cause(s) of change in trajectory from decline to increase? Declining postponement, i.e. declining ΔMAB1? Increasing variability in MAB1, i.e. wider fertility curve? Increase in peak rates, i.e. higher fertility curve? Change in early fertility (pre-modal age) behaviour? Change in late fertility (post-modal age) behaviour?

Trends in Early FR1 (pre-modal age fertility, using mode at Y0)

Trends in Early FR1 (pre-modal age fertility, using mode at Y0) 3yr before/after Y0 summary Observations: EarlyFR1 increased only in NL, FI, BG, SE >Y0 In all countries there was a slowing of the decline in EarlyFR1

Trends in Late FR1 (post-modal age fertility, using mode at Y0)

Trends in Late FR1 (post-modal age fertility, using mode at Y0) 3yr before/after Y0 summary Observations: Even before Y0, LateTFR1 was generally rising Since Y0, increase in LateTFR1 has accelerated

Conclusion / 2 The width of the fertility curve has increased predominantly from growth of the right side of the curve, i.e. increase in LateFR1 Early FR1 had been declining sharply before Y0, but after that it stabilised

Cause(s) of change in trajectory from decline to increase? Declining postponement, i.e. declining ΔMAB1? NO Increasing variability in MAB1, i.e. wider fertility curve? YES Increase in peak rates, i.e. higher fertility curve? NO Change in early fertility (pre-modal age) behaviour? YES Change in late fertility (post-modal age) behaviour? YES

Overall conclusions “The TFR has risen in recent years because women at older ages have been having the births that had been delayed in the past while women at younger ages have ceased delaying their births any further than earlier cohorts did” McDonald and Kippen (2011) Their observations for Australia can be successfully extrapolated to cover the European countries

Thank you! Questions?