WWW.BJERKNES.UIB.NO Dynamical downscaling of ERA-40 with WRF in complex terrain in Norway – comparison with ENSEMBLES U. Heikkilä, A. D. Sandvik and A.

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Presentation transcript:

WWW.BJERKNES.UIB.NO Dynamical downscaling of ERA-40 with WRF in complex terrain in Norway – comparison with ENSEMBLES U. Heikkilä, A. D. Sandvik and A. Sorteberg

Motivation Expected change in rainfall (SRES A1B) Dryer Wetter Dryer Bergen

Motivation: precipitation on Norwegian west coast November – Januar 1890 - 2008 2007 Nov 2004 - Jan 2005: 1387.8 mm Nov 2006 – Jan 2007: 1397.7 mm 2005 1993 1992

More extremes observed

High-resolution climatology in Norway ERA-40 (1.1 deg.) WRF to 30 km and 10 km – nudged and free Arpege GCM (appr. 50 km) - nudged and free Control run: 1961-1990 Evaluation against surface parameters of Norwegian met. office “Comparison” with 12 RCM’s from ENSEMBLES project

Domain: 30 km – 10 km

Details Very large outer domain to increase RCM independency 30 km / 10 km / 40 vertical levels to 50 hPa Default microphysics, PBL schemes Noah land-surface, CAM radiation 1-way nesting Spectral nudging in outer domain waves -> 1000 km no nudging in PBL weak nudging (every 24 hrs) of u,v,gph no nudging of humidity

Results – precipitation ERA40 – WRF nudged Bias of 30-year mean daily precipitation (%)

Results - precipitation

Results – precipitation ERA40 – WRF nudged 0.95 0.99 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.025-0.5

Results – 2m temperature ERA40 – WRF nudged

Results – 2m temperature ERA40 – WRF nudged

Results - overview

Sensitivity to nudging - precipitation NUDGED FREE

Sensitivity to nudging - precipitation ERA-40 Arpege N to ERA40

Summary WRF reproduces observed climate 1961-1990 reasonably well 10 km resolution improves precipitation, surface temperature and winds extremes better represented High resolved North Atlantic advantageous for Norwegian (European) west coast: phase of precipitation events improved temperature bias significantly reduced, especially between regions spectral nudging essential to keep low pressure systems consistent with driving data What about forcing with GCM data?

Results – 2m temperature

Results - Extreme precipitation

Results - Extreme temperature

Results – 10m wind coast only