Local Real Estate Trends & Market Conditions Lisa Sturtevant, PhD Lisa Sturtevant & Associates www.lisasturtevant.com November 1, 2017

Strong job growth has continued in the Washington DC region since the recession Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; The Stephen S. Fuller Institute

Population growth has been steady but slowed in 2016 6,151,192 6,097,684 5,872,677 5,964,439 6,033,891 5,666,536 5,778,317 Source: U.S. Census (Decennial Census and vintage 2016 Population Estimates); The Stephen S. Fuller Institute

Home prices are up faster in 2017 than in 2014 - 2016 Source: RealEstate Business Intelligence, LLC; The Stephen S. Fuller Institute

Home prices are up across the region, creating challenges for would-be first-time homebuyers Source: RealEstate Business Intelligence, LLC

Homeownership rates continue to decline from peak, especially among younger households Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year files

Rents are still rising though at a slower pace in 2016 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year files

Typical rents in the regon are still unaffordable for households at 50-60% of AMI Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey, 1-year file

The number of cost burdened renters in the region has risen significantly Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year files

The greatest challenges are for low- and moderate-income renters Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey, 1-year file

Housing costs are increasingly out of reach for middle-income working households For example, the average monthly rent in Fairfax County was $1,774 in 2016. You need an income of at least $70,960 to afford the typical rent. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey; Economic, Demographic and Statistical Research; Fairfax County Department of Neighborhood and Community Services

Housing costs are increasingly out of reach for middle-income working households Retail Sales Person Avg. salary: $29,552 Accountant Avg. salary: $64,960 Graphic Designer Avg. salary: $58,503 Workers in the public and private sectors have a hard time finding housing they can afford. Security Guard Avg. salary: $31,850 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey; National Housing Conference Paycheck to Paycheck

The Washington DC region has lost people to other parts of the country in recent years Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (Intercensal, v2009 and v2016 Population Estimates); The Stephen S. Fuller Institute

In particular, the number of you adults in the region has declined since 2014 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (v2016 Population Estimates); The Stephen S. Fuller Institute

The high cost of living in the Washington DC metro area is a key reason for out-migration Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; The Stephen S. Fuller Institute

For decades, DC has been a majority African American city but now less than half of the city’s population is black Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census Summary File 3, 2005 American Community Survey 1-year file, 2014 American Community 1-year file. Tabulated by Lisa Sturtevant.

DC has lost low-income households and gained higher-income households Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census Summary File 3, 2005 American Community Survey 1-year file, 2014 American Community 1-year file. Tabulated by Lisa Sturtevant.

The result has been increasing income divergence by race in DC Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year files

Gentrification pressures are not just a concern in DC

Key demographic and economic trends important to future housing needs in the region Aging of the Baby Boom population Family formation among Millennials Changing employment patterns in the region Types of jobs Locations of jobs

Regional best practices for expanding housing options Housing Needs Analysis Greentape Development Review Process Parking Minimums Inclusionary Housing Accessory Dwelling Units Flexible Local Trust Funds Community-Serving Land/Facilities Land Trusts & Land Banks Preservation Approaches

Local Real Estate Trends & Market Conditions Lisa Sturtevant, PhD Lisa Sturtevant & Associates www.lisasturtevant.com