The Up-and-Down Economy The economy is always an elusive creature, especially during a presidential election year. Most major analytical sources have had to revise their economic forecasts, such as Kiplinger’s 3.8% increase in retail sales compared to 4.6% during 2015. Job growth has declined in some sectors and significantly increased in others. More importantly, average hourly earnings increased 2.5% for the 12 months ending April 2016, and are expected to reach 3% by the end of the year. The monthly change in disposable income increased substantially during the Q1 2016, averaging +3% each month; however, the monthly change in personal consumption expenditures averaged less than +2% per month.

Going to School on Back-to-School According to Euclid Analytics’ 2015 US Retail Benchmarks Back-to-School Report, July 18th was the best shopping day of the season and August 26th the worst, suggesting that brands and retailers have trouble sustaining sales momentum throughout the period. During July 2015, 24.68% of surveyed shoppers said coupons, sales and promotions influenced 26 to 50% of their purchases; followed by 21.09% of 11 to 25% of their purchases; 16.27% of 51 to 75% of their purchases. August 2015 online sales increased 12% Y-O-Y and mobile sales increased almost 42%, or 25.3% of all online sales. August online sales increased 13.7% for department stores, more than 12.6% for home goods and more than 15% for apparel.

New-Media Moms With women controlling as much as 85% of all consumer spending, it’s important to understand today’s mothers, most of whom are 44 years of age and younger, resulting in digital marketing channels being more influential than traditional channels. Facebook is 77% of women’s preferred social media network for following brands or products, with Instagram a distant second at 11%; followed by Twitter, 6%; Pinterest, 4%; Snapchat, 1%. Instagram’s research found that more than 50% of mothers and almost 50% of fathers on Instagram follow brands or products and 68% of all mothers visit Instagram daily. Instagram department stores ads generated 2.8 times more conversions from moms.

The Students Spend Too The high-school graduating class of 2025 – today’s third-graders – will be the largest and most diverse ever and will remain a large back-to-school market for the next 9 years, and as college students. According to The NPD Group, 34% of female teenagers purchased plus-size clothes during 2015, a percentage that has increased from 16% for 2010 and 19% for 2012. Purchase of junior sizes decreased from 81% for 2012 to 73% for 2015. Although Snapchat is the fastest growing social network ever, it is still more of a user’s than a marketer’s channel. Nonetheless, it’s where teens spend much of their time and to reach them marketing content must be in small portions and drive conversations.

Teachers in the Aisle and Online Brands and retailers must realize that teachers are now a sub-segment of the Back-to-School market since 30 US states provided less K–12 per-student funding for the 2014–2015 school year than prior to the recession. A survey of more than 500 teachers during the 2014–2015 school year found that they spent $490 of their own money for school supplies, etc. even though the average amount they received from their school district was $247, and $300 from their school.   According to the survey, 68% of teachers were using social media sites, such as Pinterest and YouTube, and blogs to seek free educational resources. Facebook, Instagram and Pinterest were their top choices for personal use.

Boosting Back-to-College Buying According to the Deloitte 2015 Back-to-School Survey, more respondents said they shifted their 2015 college shopping from early August to late August – early August 2014, 62%, and 2015, 55%; late August 2014, 17%, and 2015, 24%. Parents’ use of online sources for back-to-college shopping advice declined from 54% for 2014 to 42% for 2015. Among college students, however, friends, 46% and 74%; social media, 22% and 51%; and mobile phone, 14% and 26%, respectively, all increased. Of the Deloitte survey participants, 62% of women said they would only shop at stores that offered back-to-school sales, compared to 49% of men; however, 62% of men, compared to 58% of women, said they would purchase more items online.

Advertising Strategies Help your clients plan a back-to-school advertising schedule to sustain their voice and special offers to attract the early shoppers of July as well as late August and early September shoppers. As with the Christmas shopping season, back-to-school requires the complementary use of television and new media. TV generates greater reach and brand awareness while new media allows retailers to target consumers with specific promotions and engaging content. Recommend that retailers promote special teacher-only discounts to attract more of their school supplies dollars. Use different discounts that match with the local school’s starting date: prior to start, the first week of school and early-to-mid-September.

New Media Strategies Promotions, coupons and discounts are important on social media, but retailers may attract equal attention by posting and sharing content about how to help children prepare for a new school, local start-of-school-year information, children’s safety and health tips, etc. To generate more interest among tech-savvy moms, partner with a local day spa or similar business to provide moms with a shopping-stress-reduction session. Make the session free when moms spend a qualifying amount. Teens are highly conscious of wearing the latest fashions for the new school year. Invite one or more of them from the local middle school and high school to serve as “brand ambassadors” to “model” these looks and post comments, photos and videos.