2. Setting the Stage for Successful Sales
Although the US economy has not advanced smoothly during the last half of 2015, November’s 211,000 new jobs and the revision of October’s new-job count to 298,000 (from 271,000) indicate more consumers will have dollars to spend during 2016.
A more revealing statistic is the 2.3% increase in November wages following a 2.5% increase during October. Some retailers are reporting that they have had to increase wages to retain their best workers and attract the most qualified.
General economic forecasts from reliable sources aren’t spectacular for 2016, but Kiplinger predicts a GDP of 2.8% and Wells Fargo, 2.5%. The price for a gallon of gas throughout 2016 is forecast to average $2.33.

3. Retail Sector Continues to Rally
Kiplinger is forecasting a 4.7% increase in total retail sales for 2016 while Wells Fargo estimated a 4.3% increase in its November 2015 Economic Outlook Report.
Kiplinger bases its forecast on a stronger housing market, which it expects to result in significant increases in purchases of building materials, garden supplies, furniture and other household products and services.
Moody’s Analytics predicts an even greater boost in retail sales during 2016, reaching 5.3%. It also sees housing as a primary driver, as housing starts are forecast to increase 28.9%, compared to 14.3% for 2015.

4. Riding the Holiday Spending Wave
Data from the 2015 Thanksgiving/Black Friday/Cyber Monday weekend revealed the increasing power of online shopping, as 103 million people shopped online and 102 million shopped at brick-and-mortar stores.
According to RetailNext, store sales decreased 4.7% and store traffic 5.1%, compared to 2014; however, sales per shopper increased 0.3% and average transaction value increased 3.1%.
This reinforces the trend and strategy that retail stores, whether its Christmas or Valentine’s Day, need an omnichannel approach to reach, engage with and convince consumers to buy.

5. Time to Sharpen Arrows
As of early December 2015, the National Retail Federation and other sources had not yet published their retail sales forecast for Valentine’s Day 2016, but THE MEDIACENTER will update this Profiler with that information when it becomes available.
The severe weather of the 2014 and 2015 winters certainly had an effect on store and restaurant traffic for Valentine’s Day. The current El Niño pattern may be one of the strongest ever, creating unusual weather across the US during winter and spring 2016.
Weather may have been one of the major reasons online shopping for the week prior to Valentine’s Day 2015 increased 10.2%, compared to Mobile traffic increased 26.5% and mobile sales increased 35.3%.

6. Advertising Strategies
Encourage advertisers in states with February political primaries to create promotions and book TV ad time before the end of December. They may be able to incorporate the red of Valentine’s Day into a red, white and blue theme: The Heart of America.
Valentine’s Day is always an opportunity to convince multiple small advertisers to collaborate on a package promotion and pool their ad dollars to use a combination of TV, marketing and social media.
If severe winter weather is forecast for your market during Valentine’s Day weekend, then suggest a promotion of one percent off for every degree colder than normal or every additional inch of snow than normal. Restaurants can reduce patrons’ meals by $1.

7. Social Media Strategies
Retailers/restaurants can ask patrons to upload short videos of celebrating Valentine’s Day with their significant other. Ask everyone to vote for the favorite, providing a grand prize to the winning couple and a coupon to all participants for use during the last half of February.  
Promote social media page traffic and engagement by inviting everyone to submit a brief statement (with an accompanying photo that describes their statement visually) or a video of what love means to them.
Instead of a straightforward online pitch of selection and price, a jewelry store can promote special Valentine’s Day pieces, each with a different stone, by describing the meaning or symbolism of each stone and any historical context for that meaning.