The Holiday Season Could Be Bright…and Hot Although retail sales have been slow to increase during 2016, the National Retail Federation (NRF) reported a 4% increase during the first six months of 2016 (excluding automobiles, gasoline stations and restaurants). The NRF has also increased its retail sales forecast for all of 2016 from an earlier 3.1% to 3.4%, which is being reflected in many major retailers citing a strong beginning to the back- to-school season. Broader economic news may also stimulate more holiday retail sales, as 255,000 jobs were created in July, real wage growth was 2.6% and new home sales increased 12.4% during, July, the highest level since October 2007.

2015 Holiday Shopping Happenings According to the NRF, 2015 holiday shopping season sales increased 3.0% to $626.1 billion, with non-store sales increasing 9% to $105 billion. The increase wasn’t as much as 2014, but exceeded 2012 and 2013. Oracle Marketing Cloud and Edison Research’s annual holiday survey found consumers expected to spend an average of $829 when surveyed during October 2015, but actually spent an average of $840 when surveyed again during January 2016. The Oracle/Edison findings also supported the trend during recent years for less Thanksgiving weekend shopping, as 40% of consumers planned to shop on Black Friday 2015, but 32% actually did. For Cyber Monday, it was planned, 53%, and actual, 44%.

Influence of Retailer Reward/Loyalty Programs for 2016 Holiday Shopping, by Retailer Category Retail Category Influential Not Influential Mass merchandisers 55% 45% Department stores 48% 52% Electronics retailers 43% 57% Club stores 37% 63% Drug stores 35% 65% Apparel retailers 33% 67% Sporting goods retailers 25% 75% Office supply retailers 24% 76% Berkeley Research Group, June 2016

Holiday 2015 Store Scores According to the NRF, Black Friday 2015 generated the most sales revenues for 68% of retailers from all channels; however, 25% of retailers said Black Friday online/mobile revenues were more than Cyber Monday’s. Improved discounts and promotions were the top drivers of 2015 sales, at 25%; followed by improved merchandising, 11%; additional marketing, 10%; additional advertising, 7%; e- commerce improvements, 7%; and improved shipping offerings, 7%. Approximately 80% of retailers cited online-only sales, limited-time offers and free standard shipping as very or somewhat profitable methods during 2015. Plus first-time buyer discounts more than tripled compared to 2014.

Spectacular Online Sales According to comScore, total 2015 holiday season desktop and mobile e-commerce spending from home and work locations was $69.08 billion, a 13% increase over 2014, while Adobe reported a 12.7% increase, or a total of $83 billion. comScore reported that total e-commerce spending on home and work desktop computers was $56.43 billion of the $69.08 billion grand total, a 6% increase over 2014, with Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday the biggest period, at $7.20 billion. Adobe data indicated that e-commerce sales on December 23rd increased 56%, compared to the same day during 2014. During the entire holiday shopping season, electronics generated 60% of online sales; gift cards, 10%; and all other products, 30%.

Mobile Channel Conquers Of the $69.08 billion in total desktop and mobile e-commerce spending during the 2015 holiday shopping season reported by comScore, $12.65 billion was m-commerce, a 59% increase from 2014, increasing its share of all e-commerce from 2014’s 13% to 18%. Adobe found that less than 50% of 4,000 surveyed consumers were pleased with the mobile retail app and Web experience. This may be why there was a 20% gap on Thanksgiving Day 2015 between mobile visits and actual purchases. According to data from HookLogic, a search advertising firm, mobile activity was 58.4% of all e-commerce traffic during Thanksgiving week and 59.7% of all e-commerce traffic during the week of December 21st, the largest week of the season.

Advertising Strategies By emphasizing with your prospects and clients that 7% of retailers said that “not enough advertising” hindered 2015 holiday sales and 47% of consumers said they learned about holiday sales via TV commercials, you should be able to maximize ad buys. Show your prospects and clients the data that limited-time offers, free standard shipping and first-time buyer discounts were winning strategies during the 2015 holiday season and should be primary promotions for the 2016 season too. Explain to your prospects and clients that there is a fine line between sufficient frequency of a specific commercial’s content and viewer fatigue of the same commercial. They should be updated once or twice a month.

New Media Strategies Because as many as 64% of consumers who watch a video are more likely to buy a product online, recommend that your clients shoot additional video footage for the holidays and create videos that emphasize the value propositions of the featured products. An excellent video strategy is to create a video catalog or gift guide of featured holiday products. Advertisers can use different graphics and voice-overs to promote early-season discounts, and then last-minute discounts. Plan for one or more in-store holiday events, such as live music or a home holiday decorating class/seminar, and then share it live via Periscope, Meerkat or other live streaming apps and record it to upload to the store’s Website and social media pages.