The Patterns and Dynamics of Religious Switching between Childhood and Adulthood in the U.S. 2008: A Case Study of the Nones Barry A. Kosmin Institute for the Study of Secularism in Society and Culture Trinity College, Hartford, Connecticut

Religious Switching in the 20th Century "In 1955 a Gallup poll showed that only 4% of the adult population--1 person in 25--no longer adhered to the faith of their childhood. Some 30 years later, another Gallup poll showed that 1 person in 3 had switched from the faith in which they had been raised. " Wuthnow, R. The Restructuring of American Religion: Society and Faith Since World War II, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press (1988), p. 88. "Between 25 and 32% of Americans currently are members of a religious group other than the one in which they were raised. The main reasons... seem to be the desire to worship with people of similar socioeconomic status, the desire to have the same religious membership as one's spouse, and the abandonment of established religion by young people. 27% of those who switched went to a category of 'no religious membership at all." Newport, F. "The Religious Switcher in the United States " in American Sociological Review, 44:528-552 (1979)], p.548

Switching DEFINITION AND MEASURES Any change in reported religious self-identification or preference label between 2 points in time. Examples are Southern Baptist to American Baptist; Evangelical Lutheran to Wisconsin Synod Lutheran. Movement between religious traditions with differences in theology or ecclesiology. Includes across Non-Catholic Christian denominational traditions Movement between religions (usually) involving apostasy and conversion formalities PROCESSES Churning = total gross movement Balance of switching between religious groups = net gains & losses Directionality & patterns of inter-group switching Socio-demographic characteristics of switchers

Data Data are drawn from the American Religious Identification Survey (ARIS) 2008 based on random-digit dialed (RDD) telephone interviews with a nationally representative samples of 54,462 adults. The analysis for this presentation is based on 2 sub-samples drawn from ARIS 1,015 representative U.S. adults. 1,106 Nones Questions What is your religion, if any? What was your religious identification, if any, at age 12?

Table 1. Switching Measures for U. S Table 1. Switching Measures for U.S. Adult Population (Weighted) ARIS 2008 Age 12/Current Religion Stay Switch 5 Groups 71% 29% 12 Traditions 62% 38% All Religious groups 59% 41% 6 of the 12 Traditions are in the Other Christians group category

Table 2. Religious Switching Patterns of US Adult Population since Age 12 ARIS 2008 Catholics Other Christians Other Religions Nones DK/ Ref Switched In 14% 19% 51% 70% Switched Out 31% 17% 38% 41% 79% Difference -17% 2% 13% 29% -28% Switches in: as percentage of current population; Switches out: as percentage of original population Table 2 shows high rate of religious switching 41% of Americans self-identify differently now to when they were age 12. 38% have moved between the religious traditions. 29% have moved across the 5 groups with Catholics showing net loss by switching (but they gain from immigration). Nones show biggest net gain. Interestingly more Americans know what they are now than what they were at age 12 (DK/Refused column).

Logistic Regressions to Explain Gross Switching Model 1.  Socio-demographic/class variables fail to explain gross switching. (N=837  R square = .015) No variable significant presumably because churning includes Other Christians moving within Christianity (musical chairs/pews).  Model 2.  Socio-demographics + Religion at Age 12 (N=786 R square = .028) Only significant finding = Catholics less likely to switch. The sheer size of the group offsets the losses. 

Initial Conclusions ARIS 2008 and Pew Religious Landscape Survey 2007 agree that the gross rate of religious switching among the contemporary American adult population - churning – between childhood and today is just over 40%. Demography does not explain churning or differentiate religious switchers from stayers. Since demographics, class, geography, time period and childhood religion explain very little about gross switching we must assume that situational contingencies, spouse’s religious identification, social network dynamics and psychological variables we did not measure are at play. Analysis suggests that there are specific patterns and dynamics operating in switching in and out at the level of particular religious groups.

Logistic Regressions to Explain Switching Model 3. Switching to None – Socio-demographic variables + Religion at age 12 N= 306  R square = .167 Significant variables: Gender- Males twice as likely as females (.01 level) Region- Residents of Midwest (0.01) and West (0.05) more than twice as likely to switch to None as  residents of South Religion at age 12- Compared with Don’t Knows, Catholics 5 times more likely (0.01)  Typology of the most likely New None = a Catholic male from the Midwest.

Table 3. Raised Nones v. New Nones % New Nones MALES 58.9 62.3 FEMALES 41.1 37.7 Total 100%

Table 4. Percentage of Raised Nones and New Nones by Age Cohort 2008 % Population 18-29 38.4 3,887,000 61.6 6,227,000 30-49 37.6 4,774,000 62.4 7,923,000 50-69 19.7 1,266,000 80.3 5,149,000 70+ 42.7 535,000 57.3 719,000 Total 34.3 65.7

Table 5. Selected Ethnic Origin of Raised Nones and New Nones British 19.7% 20.3% Irish 26.8% 37.4% Italian 7.2% 9.8% Jewish 3.9% 3.8%

Table 6. Percentage Raised Nones and New Nones by Census Region Northeast 31.0 69.0 Midwest 38.3 61.7 South 34.3 65.7 West TOTAL

Table 7. Educational Attainment among Raised and New Nones Raised Nones New Nones High school graduate or less 46.7 40.9 Some College 30.3 30.5 College graduate 22.9 28.6 TOTAL 100%

Table 8. Belief in God among Raised Nones and New Nones There is no such thing 8.7 6.5 There is no way to know 15.7 20.8 I’m not sure 21.0 14.3 There is a higher power 21.1 26.4 There is a personal god 25.7 27.9 DK/Ref 7.7 4.1 Total 100%

Table 9. Belief in Horoscopes among Raised Nones and New Nones Yes/Maybe 18.5 14.3 No 79.6 85.5 DK/Refused 1.9 0.3 Total 100%

Table 10. Belief in Human Evolution among Raised Nones and New Nones 2008 Probably/Definitively Yes 56.7 63.9 Probably/Definitively Not 31.4 28.7 DK/Refused 11.9 7.3 Total 100%

Differentiating Variables between Raised and New Nones Gender Age Cohort Education Ethnic origin Belief & Skepticism No significance = region, political preference