Hilborn, R. C. (1994) Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics

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Hilborn, R. C. (1994) Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics

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Presentation transcript:

Does the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?’ Hilborn, R. C. (1994) Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics We will never be able to escape from the ultimate dilemma that all our knowledge is about the past, and all our decisions are about the future. Ian Wilson (2000) From Scenario Thinking to Strategic Action, Technological Forecasting and Social Change

 1. Using an ESTEMPLE analysis, identify the macro-environmental drivers for change in the piano industry. 2. Construct an IMPACT matrix to show how these changes affected Broadwoods and its main competitor, Steinway.

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 1. Using SWOT analysis, explain why VBA is successful. 2. What should VBA consider in thinking about its future strategy?

 1. How do you account for Nike’s tremendous success? 2. Using ESTEMPLE, explain why Nike suffered a severe decline in 1997. 3. Can Nike repeat its earlier successful strategy?

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 1. When might scenarios be of use to managers? 2. Why were the Creative and Media students more adept at generating scenarios than other managers? 3. Why should the disposability of the firm affect one’s views of scenarios? 4. Are scenarios a way of ‘remembering the future’?

 1. What are the macro-drivers for change in the Chinese airline industry? 2. Carry out a structural analysis of this industry. 3. Construct future scenarios for the Chinese airline industry. 4. What are the implications for the a. Three main firms? b. The regional competitors? 5. In what ways might the scenarios challenge the prevailing mental models of Chinese airlines?