Attacking Free Kicks: Cross or Shot? Dan Barnett @OptaPro #OptaProforum

Why Analyse Free Kicks? Repeatable actions Relatively small pool of options: Shoot/Cross/Pass with Binary outcome Goal/No Goal Activity from 2013/14 Season for main 5 Leagues: Premier League Serie A La Liga Bundesliga Ligue 1 Overall outcome of over 8,000 free kicks in attacking areas (approx. 35 yards) from which a shot or cross taken Outcome analysis limited to where a cross or shot taken direct from the free kick and goal/no goal within the immediate phase of play from a cross (30 seconds) or directly from a shot

Hit and Hope or Calculated Risk? Is shooting in this scenario the best option? Click video to play

They may not always go in, but when they do…. Click video to play

Activity Map – Location of Shots/Crosses from Free Kicks A lot of areas are either cross or shot with relatively little overlap

Which areas have a realistic choice of Cross or Shot? Areas highlighted those with a more even ratio of Shots to Crosses The can be considered the ‘Decision Areas’

Side of Box 304 8 126 2.6% 6.3% 24-30 yards out off Central 264 9 568 Conversion by Area Based on figures below should teams be more aggressive closer to goal and more conservative further out Area Cross Cross Goal Shot Shot Goal Cross Conversion % Shot Conversion % Side of Box 304 8 126 2.6% 6.3% 24-30 yards out off Central 264 9 568 29 3.4% 5.1% 30+ Yards out, Central 78 4 412 5 1.2% Is there a ‘Tipping Point’ for central free kicks at which the distance is such that a keeper has sufficient time to usually react, is around 30 yards the point at which hope triumphs over realism?

One size doesn’t fit all Focusing on Free Kicks in the ‘Decision Area’ Lyon shoot 71% of the time Atletico Madrid shot just 6% of the time Team Free Kicks % Shoot Torino 31 74% Lyon 38 71% Real Madrid Livorno 41 68% Hoffenheim 32 66% Man. City 28 18% Man. United 23 17% Toulouse 13% West Ham United 19 11% Atlético de Madrid 35 6%

Torino – Shoot from Everywhere Torino have the most aggressive approach in terms of shooting even if it’s only provided 2 goals: Yellow (Shots) and Blue (Goals)

Is there a Free Kick Elite? – Free Kick Conversion Always the issue around small sample sizes/locations. Overall Free Kick conversion at 6.2%, tiny difference in outcome between average and elite but Toure’s figures stand out, if probably unsustainable (4 goals from 7 shots) Player Shots Goals % Touré 7 4 57% Pirlo 32 13% Suárez 27 3 11% Ronaldo 30 10% Messi 28 2 7% Zlatan 39 5%

Defending: It’s not just where the ball is, it’s who you’re against Big difference between facing Neuer and a League 2 goalkeeper At what probability of a goal do you switch from the traditional wall to something more resembling the free for all of an indirect free kick inside the box? May just be being wise after the event but this example made to look too easy Click video to play

If only there was an example of it in action….. After writing this presentation then heard about this in France This kind of tactic will lead to counter-tactics (e.g., attacking team making their own wall in front of the keeper) Question is, can any non-standard strategy result in a lower conversion than usual? Click video to play

Recommendations/Future Analysis Fuller ‘Phase of Play’ analysis – Analyse all Free Kicks until the ball goes out of play (and then chaining these outcomes together to get the full value of a free kick depending on position and action) Incorporate outcomes of Pass option to analysis e.g., Analyse Cross vs. Pass for instances of free kicks in areas where shooting an unlikely option Tracking Data: Identifying which teams are weak at covering free kicks from a defensive view point Bundesliga teams shoot directly 77% of time for ‘Decision Area’ free kicks compared to 54% in Premier League but conversely 55% of shots from Free Kicks in this area are taken with a players right foot in Bundesliga but 74% in Premier League. Is there are a lack of left footed Free Kick takers in PL? Not that being a right footed player taking a free kick on the right bothered Eriksen…. Click video to play

Thank you Dan Barnett www.WeArePremierLeague.com @we_r_pl #OptaProForum