Tax Reform and Policy for an Economy in Transition

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Presentation transcript:

Tax Reform and Policy for an Economy in Transition Roger Brake Revenue Group The Treasury

Chart 1: Evolution of IMF forecasts of global growth Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2011-April 2016

Chart 2: Medium term growth potential Source: IMF April 2016 World Economic Outlook

Chart 3: Productivity growth rates – Australia, USA and advanced economies Source: Treasury

Chart 4: Growth in working age populations Source: 2015 UN Population Prospects, ABS, Treasury

Chart 5: Global inflation Source: IMF April 2016 World Economic Outlook

Chart 6: Central bank policy interest rates Source: Bloomberg

Chart 7: Shares of global growth Source: IMF; Treasury. (Treasury projections used beyond 2021)

Chart 8: Real GDP growth Source: Budget 2016-17

Chart 9: Terms of trade Source: ABS Cat. No. 5206.0

Chart 10: Number of people aged from 15 to 64 relative to the number of people aged 65 and over Source: 2015 Intergenerational Report

Chart 11: Contribution to per capita income growth Source: Treasury

Chart 12: Total Taxation Receipts as a proportion of GDP (excluding GST) Source: Treasury

Chart 13: Australia’s evolving tax mix Source: Treasury

Chart 14: Company tax as a proportion of GDP Source: Treasury

Chart 15: Capital gains tax as a proportion of GDP Source: Treasury

Chart 16: Indirect taxation receipts including/excluding GST&CPM as a proportion of GDP Source: Treasury

Chart 17: Individuals and other withholding taxes & fringe benefits tax as a percentage of GDP Source: Treasury

Chart 18: State own-source tax revenue and GST as a percentage of GDP Source: ABS GFS, State Budgets and 2016-17 Commonwealth Budget parameters

Chart 19: Total state own source tax revenue as a proportion of GDP Source: ABS GFS, State Budgets and 2016-17 Commonwealth Budget parameters

Chart 20: GST as a proportion of GDP Source: ABS GFS, State Budgets and 2016-17 Commonwealth Budget parameters