Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of the Republic of Tajikistan Session of the National Development Council under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan MID-TERM DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM OF THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN FOR 2016-2020 Hikmatullozoda N. Minister of Economic Development and Trade of the Republic of Tajikistan Dushanbe 2016

MAIN GOALS OF THE PROGRAM Ensuring sustainable access to energy resources; Exit from the low level self-sufficiency with food; Integration of national and international transport corridors, as well as the development of telecommunication networks; Ensuring equal access to social services.

FINAL GOAL OF THE PROGRAM – INCREASE LIVING STANDARDS OF THE POPULATION: Continuing the poverty reduction trend; Ensuring conducive environment for strengthening and growing middle class.

MAIN PRIORITIES: IN A WAY TO A NEW DEVELOPMENT MODEL Expanding access to resources and their rational use; Development of export and import-oriented products, and production business as well; Improving the efficiency of the management of the fuel and energy complex; Effective agricultural reforms; Skip the perfect food system; Development of transport infrastructure; Expanding access to telecommunications services.

MAIN PRIORITIES: IN A WAY TO A NEW DEVELOPMENT MODEL (cont…) Improving the efficiency of social sector reforms; Strengthening the role of public institutions in national development; Establishing effective mechanisms for the development community; Ensuring human rights and the rule of law; Reducing gender inequality; Broadening the social involvement of the vulnerable parts of the population.

THE USE OF NEW CONCEPTUAL APROACHES The new methodology to prepare program that built institutional relationships with the use of suitable macroeconomic development model; Existence of a big difference compared to previous strategies and programs where its period not for three years, but has been developed for five years, which includes two budget cycle that gives enough time to carry out the needed structural reforms.

MtDP SCENARIOS FOR 2016-2020 For the development of the national economy for the National Development Strategy up to 2030 the industrial scenario has been accepted as a basis! In the framework of the implementation of the industrial scenarios is expected to take three implementation options: 1) Pessimistic 2) Realistic 3) Optimistic

The average annual growth rate of GDP - 4-4.5% Overall changes on the macroeconomic indicators according to the PESSIMISTIC option of the Industrial scenario The average annual growth rate of GDP - 4-4.5% Nominal GDP growth - 1.4 times GDP per capita growth - 1.3 times Share of education and science’s sector in GDP - 5.5% Share of health care and social welfare in GDP - 7.9% Share of industrial sector in GDP - 14% Share of agricultural sector in GDP - 22% Share of the service sector in GDP - 40.8%.

Overall changes on the macroeconomic indicators according to the REALISTIC option of the Industrial scenario The average annual growth rate of GDP – 6-7% Nominal GDP growth – 1.8 times GDP per capita growth – 1.6 times Share of education and science’s sector in GDP – 5.7% Share of health care and social welfare in GDP – 8.4% Share of industrial sector in GDP – 16% Share of agricultural sector in GDP – 20.5% Share of the service sector in GDP – 50%.

Overall changes on the macroeconomic indicators according to the OPTIMISTIC option of the Industrial scenario The average annual growth rate of GDP – 7-8% Real GDP growth – 1,9 times GDP per capita growth – 1,7 times Share of education and science’s sector in GDP – 6% Share of health care and social welfare in GDP – 9%

MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

INDUSTRY

ENERGY PRODUCTION

FOREIGN ECONOMIC TRADE

EDUCATION AND HEALTH SECTORS

FINANCING REQUIREMENT OF THE MID-TERM NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM FOR 2016-2020 Overall need for funding of this document based on measures of the action matrix makes 25,5 bln. USD, including:

Thanks for your attention!