Economic Conditions and Outlook

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Keith Phillips, Sr. Economist and Advisor 2013 Texas Economic Outlook: Slightly Slower But Still Good to be in Texas.

Advertisements

Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc. The U.S. Economic Outlook: How Much Fallout from The Housing Meltdown? Nariman Behravesh Chief Economist NAHB April.

Economic Outlook William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Multi-Chamber Economic Outlook Luncheon Downers.

Saudi Arabia Business Optimism Index – Q Presented by Dun & Bradstreet National Commercial Bank.

2015 Texas Economic Outlook: Tapping on the Brakes Keith Phillips Sr. Economist and Research Officer The views expressed in this presentation are strictly.

U.S. and Michigan Economic Outlook Passages Through a Sea of Uncertainty Robert A. Dye Chief Economist, Comerica Bank January, 2013.

The Polish economy in 2002 Frigyes Ferdinand Heinz Research Office (London) Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd.

Economic Outlook 2001 Hawaii Economic Association Annual Conference May 4, 2001.

Presented by: Robert F. DeLucia, C.F.A. Senior Economist Quarterly Economic And Financial Market Outlook November 2004.

Economic Outlook for Consumers William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago University of Illinois Center for.

Chapter 5: Monetary Theory and Policy. 1-2 Chapter 5: Monetary Theory and Policy Chapter Outline: Monetary Theory. Economic Indicators Monitored by the.

Global Outlook June Areas Today Asia China U.S.A.

Future Financial Forecast An update on the big economic picture for credit, interest rates and inflation. Paul Cahill Chief Executive Officer.

Economic Outlook William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Spring Manufacturers Institute Orlando, FL April.

Economic Outlook 2000 Hawaii Economic Association Annual Conference April 28, 2000.

Macroeconomic Forces Chapter 2. Characteristics of the Business Cycle 1. Fluctuations in aggregate business activity 2. Characteristic of a market driven.

Industrials Sector Jason Kraynak and Wade Guzdanski.

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Cochise College CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH Economic Outlook Sierra Vista, AZ.

Omair Ali Antonio Alfonso Shehab Chowdhury Mohammad Zubair Ahsan Syed Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Fed Challenge 2011.

The 2015 Economy: Staying the course?? R. Christopher Jones, Ph.D.

After the Recession: How Hot? David Wyss Chief Economist TVB New York September 8, 2004.

IHS Consulting U.S. Economic Outlook FHWA Talking Freight Seminar Steve Owens Consultant, Commodity Flow Analysis & Forecasting February 16, 2011.

The Economy and External Environment 10th Annual Georgia Idea Institute August 19, 2015 Bill Hampel, Chief Policy Officer Credit Union National Association.

MPSIF Economic Update Presentation by MPSIF Growth Fund 3/29/04.

11 May 2005 The Economy and the Housing Market Fionnuala Earley Group Economist Nationwide Building Society.

Economic Outlook William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Chicago Association of Spring Manufacturers Rosemont,

Economic Overview September 2009 Jay N. Mueller, CFA Wells Capital Management Fixed Income Group.

Review and Outlook NOT FDIC INSURED NO BANK GUARANTEE MAY LOSE VALUE December 2002.

1 Coping With The Limits of Macroeconomic Policy The Recovery from the Great Recession In this presentation National forecasts are produced by Global Insight,

1 DOMESTIC ECONOMIC CONDITIONS Jeff Fuhrer Director of Research Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Equipment Leasing and Finance Association Credit and Collections.

The Outlook for the U.S. Economy and Home Improvement Spending James Gillula Managing Director, Consulting Services IHS Global Insight April 2014.

Chapter 2 Economic Activity. Objectives Describe Gross Domestic Product Describe Gross Domestic Product Identify and describe economic measures of labor.

2-1Measuring Economic Activity 2-2Economic Conditions Change 2-3Other Measure of Business Activity.

After the Recession: The Shape of the Recovery David Wyss Chief Economist September 2003.

Phases of the Business Cycle Manufacturing Labor Hours

Measuring the Economy Goals 9.01 & Why does the government need to know what the economy is doing?  The government makes decisions that affect.

Economic Outlook for 2011 and 2012 William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Electronics Representatives Association.

“By the way, does anything other than ‘trouble’ rhyme with ‘bubble’?”

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: AT LAST, MOVING AHEAD? Dr. Michael Walden Reynolds Distinguished Professor North Carolina State University 1.

The Economic or Business Cycle. Measuring Economic Growth We calculate the value of a country's output or wealth generated in a year by measuring GDP-Gross.

Conference Call 3/26/07. The Economy – Fed Open Market Committee held interest rate on fed funds steady at 5.25% Removed bias toward tightening monetary.

Economic Conditions Change

The 2014 Economy: Back to the Future (or maybe back to the early 90’s) R. Christopher Jones, Ph.D.

Overview and Outlook for Georgia’s Revenue Situation and Economy Fiscal Management Council Office of Planning and Budget Ken Heaghney September 2015.

UK Economic Outlook: What will drive future growth? 25 th November 2014 Richard Holt Head of Global Cities Research

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS November 2, 2012 New York, NY.

2000 Economic Outlook Hawaii Economic Association Annual Conference April 28, 2000.

Ben Smit 6 November 2002 Prospects for the World & SA economies.

Economic and Commercial Real Estate Outlook By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist National Association of REALTORS ® May 14, 2015 Washington, D.C.

© 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license.

Weaknesses of Monetary Policy. 1. Impact Lag: It has been noted by many economic commentators that there can be a significant impact lag associated with.

Economic Outlook January 2013 Financial Executives International – Annual Economic Meeting January 23, 2013 Alexander Heil, PhD, Chief Economist Economics.

The Comerica Economic Outlook The Mid-Cycle Economy Recovers From a Winter Stumble Robert A. Dye Chief Economist, Comerica Bank June, 2014.

Chapter 17 How External Forces Affect a Firm’s Value Lawrence J. Gitman Jeff Madura Introduction to Finance.

Economic Outlook Multi-Chamber Economic Outlook William Strauss

Economic Overview Washington State Examiner School

Implications for Lodging / Aran Ryan

The 2016 Economy: Our “Slow, Steady Ride”

U.S. Economic Performance

Measuring Economic Performance

BETTER SOFT DATA WITH TRUMP, BUT HARDER DATA is lagging

Edmonton’s Economic Outlook

Measuring Economic Performance

Economic & Revenue Outlook

The Euro Area Economy Update

The Economy and Iowa Credit Unions

Georgia’s Economic Conditions and Outlook

Economic Outlook Lake County Chamber of Commerce William Strauss

Economic Update December 2018 If you have any questions or comments,

Economic Outlook EconoSummit 2019 William Strauss Las Vegas, NV

Presentation transcript:

Economic Conditions and Outlook Fiscal Management Council Ken Heaghney Oct. 2, 2017

Synchronized Global Growth Reasons for Optimism Synchronized Global Growth

Consumer Confidence is High Reasons for Optimism Consumer Confidence is High

Business Confidence is High Reasons for Optimism Business Confidence is High

Stock Market at All Time High Reasons for Optimism Stock Market at All Time High

Is the Economy Poised for Much Faster Growth? Or More of the Same? Pace of recovery has been modest (and the recovery is getting old) Full employment in view Real economy (consumers, manufacturers, service industries) is on solid footing Housing recovery is slow Financial conditions - unwinding quantitative easing

Slow Pace of Recovery in Real GDP Growth

Non-Farm Employment is Also Lagging

As is Real Disposable Income

Current Recovery/Expansion is Getting Old Mean = 58.4 months

Is the Economy Poised for Much Faster Growth? Or More of the Same? Pace of recovery has been modest (and the recovery is getting old) Full employment in view Real economy (consumers, manufacturers, service industries) is on solid footing Housing recovery is very slow Financial conditions - unwinding quantitative easing

US Employment Growth is Sturdy

Georgia Employment Growth is Strong

Georgia Pace of Growth Much Quicker than for US

Georgia Hiring is Well-Diversified Across Sectors

And Across Metro Areas

Georgia Wage Growth has Accelerated

Unemployment is Very Low

Broader Measures of Unemployment Still Show Slack

Long-Term Unemployment is Still High

Labor Force Participation has Bottomed But is Still Low

Is the Economy Poised for Much Faster Growth? Or More of the Same? Pace of recovery has been modest (and the recovery is getting old) Full employment in view Real economy (consumers, manufacturers, service industries) is on solid footing Housing recovery is very slow Financial conditions - unwinding quantitative easing

Consumer Spending Growth is Decent

But the Car Sales Boom is Over

Real Disposable Income Growth has Been Weak

Consumer Borrowing to Fund Spending Growth has been Accelerating

Business Investment has Started to Recover after Weakness Due to Oil and Dollar

Port Shipments have Picked Up

ISM Index for Manufacturing is Strong

Is the Economy Poised for Much Faster Growth? Or More of the Same? Pace of recovery has been modest (and the recovery is getting old) Full employment in view Real economy (consumers, manufacturers, service industries) is on solid footing Housing recovery is slow Financial conditions - unwinding quantitative easing

Recovery in Housing Starts has Slowed

Housing Sales have Also Slowed

Home Prices Continue to Increase

Is the Economy Poised for Much Faster Growth? Or More of the Same? Pace of recovery has been modest (and the recovery is getting old) Full employment in view Real economy (consumers, manufacturers, service industries) is on solid footing Housing recovery is slow Financial conditions - unwinding quantitative easing

Fed has Begun Raising Policy Interest Rate – Long Term Rates are Still Low

Inflation is Low and Declining

Planned Withdrawal of Monetary Accommodation

Summary – More of the Same or Faster Growth Going Forward? Sector Outlook Business Cycle Continued Moderate Growth with Risks Gradually Building from Aging Cycle. Labor Market Approaching Full Employment – Faster Growth Dependent on Higher Labor Force Participation. Real Economy Wage and Income Growth Needed to Boost Demand Growth. New Policies to Improve Productivity? Housing Continued Modest Growth. Financial Conditions Higher Interest Rates.