Excellent Early Forecast In one of the earlier predictions for 2015 holiday sales, eMarketer is forecasting a 5.6% increase, which would be the largest since 6.3% for 2011. eMarketer also predicted retail ecommerce holiday season sales would increase 13.9% to $79.4 billion and represent 23.3% of all 2015 e- commerce sales and 9.0% of all 2015 holiday season sales. In its August 2015 forecast, Kiplinger expects retail sales to increase 4.5% for the year and unemployment to decline to 5.1% by year’s end. The gasoline price prediction is $2 per gallon or less throughout the holiday shopping season.

A New Trend and an Old Tradition A new trend and an old tradition defined the 2014 holiday shopping season and are likely to continue for many years, as 32.3% of consumers started during October or earlier while 41.2% didn’t finish until after December 15. In fact, according to research from First Data SpendTrend, 9 of the 10 biggest shopping days were during December, with Christmas Eve the biggest. In a survey from Retale, an online weekly ad site, 15% of consumers waited until the last minute to shop. Alliance Data reported that 12% more 2014 holiday shoppers paid less for their purchases with the use of discounts, coupons and rewards programs. Almost 60% of consumers found those discounts in email offers.

2014 Takeaways Point the Way to 2015 Success Although online sales increased at a faster pace than physical store sales during the 2014 holiday shopping season, 6.8% and 4.0%, respectively, total in-store sales were $616.1 billion, compared to $101.9 billion online. According to Nielsen, 10% of the total population expected to spend more during the 2014 holiday shopping season; however, multicultural households were responsible for 43% of this increase, with African-Americans first, at 17%. The National Retail Federation reported that 32.4% of 2014 holiday shoppers found or became aware of shopping Websites through an email from the retailer; followed by shopped from the Website before, 30.0%. TV was 10th, at 6.6%.

Trailing Consumers Through the Crowds According to a CivicScience Q4 2014 consumer survey, men did more of their holiday shopping in a store than online through a store-specific Website; however, women were more likely to use that channel, 61%, compared to 55% in-store. Consumers with incomes of $75,000 or less were the largest group to shop online through a store- specific Website, at 63%. First among those shopping online through an Internet-only retailer had an associate degree or higher, at 62%. The CivicScience survey also found that TV was the #1 influence of consumers’ 2014 Christmas shopping behavior: 62% for those who shopped in-store, 53% who shopped on store-specific Websites and 50% on Internet-only retailers’ Websites.

More Clicking to Complete Christmas Shopping comScore reported during January 2015 that total 2014 US holiday season spending on home and work desktop computers increased 15%, or a total of $53.3 billion, compared to $46.5 billion during the same 2013 period, November 1– December 31. During the last full week of the 2014 holiday shopping season (December 15–21), US retail e- commerce spending from desktop computers increased 18%. For the weekend of December 20–21, it increased 36%. Online shoppers didn’t rest their index fingers on Christmas Day 2014, as e-commerce sales increased 8.3%, with the average order value at $100.33, or a 6.2% increase, compared to 2013.

Christmas Shopping on the Move According to data from IBM, online mobile traffic increased 25.5% during the 2014 holiday season, which was 45% of all online traffic. Mobile sales increased 27.2%, or 22.6% of all online sales. For the 2015 holiday shopping season, these numbers are projected to increase another 24.4% for mobile traffic, to 56% of all online traffic, and 23.8% for mobile sales, or 26% of all online sales. As has been the case, total online traffic was greater on smartphones than tablets, 31.2% and 13.4 percent, respectively, but 13.4% of online sales occurred on tablets, compared to 9.1% of smartphones.

Advertising Strategies As recommended often in these Profilers from THE MEDIACENTER, Christmas 2015 is when retailers must use their TV spots to drive traffic to their stores and Websites since TV is the #1 influence on in-store and store-specific Website shoppers’ behaviors. Help retailers develop a complete schedule of holiday shopping season discount and coupon offers and matching TV ad flights for both early season (late September/October), pre- and post- Thanksgiving and late season (the two weeks and weekend prior to Christmas). Recommend that retailers consider offering a free $5 gasoline card to all customers that return to the store within a week of their first visit and purchase, presenting the receipt from their first visit as proof-of-purchase.

Social Media Strategies Retailers should start planning now to decorate their social media pages with festive holiday cover photos; write and post holiday-related content to their blogs, Websites and social media pages; and upload photos/videos from the store’s Christmas party. A full complement of holiday-themed gift boards on Pinterest is a must for every retailer, with merchandise from the store included among boards with gifts from other sources for different members of the family, by age group, interests, personal styles, etc. Create a holiday-themed video with a hidden code for a discount, free shipping or a free gift included in the video and promote the video through email campaigns, social media pages and the store’s Website and/or blog.