Climate Change-induced Migration and Water Conflicts in Africa: The Case of Pastoral Communities in Northern Kenya James biu kung’u (Phd) Department of environmental science, Kenyatta universityI, kenya Session 7: Water security and migration

Introduction By 1990, (IPCC) identified the greatest single impact of climate change to be on human migration. Migration includes both short-term and long-term movements Estimates of the numbers of people who may be displaced by climate change related phenomena by 2050 range from 50 million to 1 billion people “climate refugees”.

Introduction Climate change is projected to bring significant changes in human migration patterns especially in developing countries. Increase in climate change related environmental hazards and sudden onset of disasters alters the typical migration patterns of certain communities . This is becoming a major global threat to human security and the environment especially among the pastoralists’ communities in Africa. As people migrate, conflicts over resources are often reported. In the horn of Africa, climate change has been identified as a catalyst for conflicts among different communities within the country or among different countries and especially among the pastoralists.

% of people affected by natural hazards in Kenya 1991-2009 These droughts have had a devastating impact on people’s lives and livelihoods. For the three million pastoralists of northern Kenya, climate change is today’s reality. It is estimated that close to one million have already been forced to abandon pastoralism. In the last 100 years, Kenya has recorded 28 major droughts and 4 of them has occurred in the last 10 years.

Pastoralists traditionally move from one area to another in search of pasture and in search of water for their livestock. They move with their livestock in response to drought, so every time there is climatic stress – which manifests itself in failure of the rains – pastoralists will traditionally migrate, following the rains. With the increasing frequency and severity of the droughts, pastoralists’ land can no longer sustain them and people have been forced to migrate.

Pastoralists Migration Pastoralists migration comes in two forms: 1st some completely drop out of the pastoralist lifestyle and system, moving to urban centres to seek casual work or to depend on relatives – the first line defence against climate stress. 2nd many move near to urban centers to seek emergency food aid. These are people who would traditionally have migrated in search of better opportunities – water and pasture – to elsewhere in East and Horn of Africa, particularly to neighboring countries of Somalia, Sudan and Ethiopia.

Intertwined factors making pastoralists migration complex in Africa Ethnicity, Environmental degradation Competition over scarce resources Influx of illicit arms from neighboring countries; an Cultural practices such as cattle rustling Politics Cattle raids, inter-communal resource conflicts and banditry are common across much of the arid and semi arid lands in Africa. Firearms are increasingly becoming common among pastoralist communities. Livestock movement in search of water and pasture remains a major driver of conflict. Competition for scarce natural resources is a primary cause of conflict in the region

Prolonged drought and flooding Climate change, conflicts and migration 1 Imbalances in the socio- ecological system 2 Prolonged drought and flooding Climate change Migration of pastoral communities Conflicts 4 3 Water and pasture scarcity is forcing pastoralists population migration in Africa Clashes over water and pasture have significantly increased in the drought-affected pastoralist areas. The conflicts have increased with the drought. Fighting had aggravated food insecurity by disrupting livelihoods and displacing hundreds of families

Climate change/ Variability Migration Conflicts Changes in river flows, drying of water sources Water Scarcity Change in weather patterns Climate change/ Variability Migration Conflicts Nb. climate-related environmental change does not automatically causes violent conflict – the political, economic and cultural context is often key. Regional migration sometimes leads to violent struggles over natural resources in areas of high in-migration in East Africa. climate change will lead to a dramatic increase in movement of people away from impacted areas and will result in increased conflict with populations in areas receiving migrants. Change in weather patterns Changes in Vegetation cover Grazing lands scarcity

making certain parts of the country much less viable places to live; Conclusion Climate change is contributing to migration of pastoralists communities through: making certain parts of the country much less viable places to live; causing pasture and water more unreliable increasing the frequency and severity of floods and storms. Increasing grazing lands and watering points conflicts