The role of mid and high latitude air-sea interactions

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The role of mid and high latitude air-sea interactions in interannual to multiyear climate variations over southern Africa Yushi Morioka (JAMSTEC) F. Engelbrecht (CSIR), S. K. Behera (JAMSTEC)

Background (I) Interannual SA climate variability Summer rainfall (Dec-Feb) Potential climate drivers: ENSO Benguela Niño Subtropical Dipole Southern Annular Mode e.g. Reason et al. (2006) Role of Antarctic sea-ice variability is not well studied.

Link between Southern African Rainfall Index (SARI) and Weddell Sea Ice Extent Morioka et al. (2016, submitted)

Composite anomalies (Obs) Low Weddell Sea ice years (Oct-Dec) Morioka et al. (2016, submitted)

Composite SIC anomalies (SINTEX-F2 150 yr) SST-nudging exp TP: Tropical Pacific TALL: All Tropics SAO: South Atlantic CLM: Global Morioka et al. (2016, submitted)

Composite SKT anomalies (SINTEX-F2 150 yr) SST-nudging exp TP: Tropical Pacific TALL: All Tropics SAO: South Atlantic CLM: Global Morioka et al. (2016, submitted)

Composite SLP anomalies (SINTEX-F2 150 yr) SST-nudging exp TP: Tropical Pacific TALL: All Tropics SAO: South Atlantic CLM: Global Morioka et al. (2016, submitted)

Background (II) Decadal SA climate variability Potential climate drivers: - Decadal ENSO Indonesian Through Flow Southern Annular Mode e.g. Allan et al. (1995) Role of local air-sea interaction in the South Atlantic and southern Indian Oceans is not identified.

Decadal climate anomalies (Obs) during Dec1999-Feb2000 Morioka et al. (2015, JC)

Decadal SLP/SST anomalies from 1993 to 2006 Morioka et al. (2015, JC)

Decadal SLP/SST anomalies (Obs) at 40-50oS 1.5 cm/s Morioka et al. (2015, JC)

Fourier spectrum of SLP/SST in SWIO region SINTEX-F2 (300-yr) 20 yr 25 yr Morioka et al. (2015, JC)

Composite SLP/SST anomalies (SINTEX-F2 300-yr) Morioka et al. (2015, JC)

Composite SLP/SST anomalies at 40-50oS SINTEX-F2 (300-yr) 2.4 cm/s Morioka et al. (2015, JC)

Summary Data analysis and SINTEX-F2 model experiments reveal… 1. Interannual SA climate variability: Weddell Sea ice variability has potential influence on the subtropical high variability in the SAO and SIO by modulating the near-surface atmospheric stability. 2. Decadal SA climate variability: Besides remote influence by decadal ENSO and SAM, local air-sea interaction in the SAO and SIO plays key role in the eastward propagating decadal anomalies, which affect the SA rainfall variability.