THE SUSTAINABILITY OF THE SA FISHING INDUSTRY Doug S Butterworth MARAM (Marine Resource Assessment and Management Group) Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa

OUTLINE I. Fish Stock Assessment and Management II. The current status of the major SA renewable marine resources III. Associated SA fisheries issues Ecosystem considerations Management /governance challenges Rights issues IV. The international horizon

FISH STOCK ASSESSMENTS DATA SERIES AVAILABLE Catch Catch rate Surveys Length/Age composition of catch Tag-recapture . Use maths/stats modelling to find the time series of abundance and productivity of the resource which is most compatible with these data

FISH STOCK MANAGEMENT OBJECTIVES Maximum sustainable yield - MSY To get that reduce abundance to about 50% of pristine Difficult to estimate MSY or what stock abundance will produce it Fish stocks fluctuate considerably – broadly more parents lead to more recruits, but there’s substantial variability – broadly, avoid catches which would drive stocks too low For major species, next year’s Total Allowable Catches (TACs) are set using pre-agreed decision rules (e.g. resource abundance increases means TAC will increase)

SHALLOW-WATER HAKE

DEEP-WATER HAKE

HAKE Marine Stewardship Council certification Two species : shallow –water OK; deep-water recovered but down turn expected Av catch 2009-2012: 135 000 t Worth more than all the other fisheries together Directly employs ~ 8000 Exports 70% ; worth ~ R 2.5 billion Marine Stewardship Council certification Only certified fishery in Africa Loss certification  loss of 40% of 5-year NPV plus 5000 – 10000 direct and related jobs

SARDINE

ANCHOVY

SARDINE AND ANCHOVY STATUS Sardine – concerns with a long period of poor recruitment since the boom at the turn of the century Anchovy – good; resource underutilised . AVERAGE CATCH 2009-2012 Sardine ~ 95 000 t Anchovy ~ 200 000 t ISSUES Are there separate sardine stocks in Western and Eastern Cape? Impact of fishing on food available for birds (penguins)

WEST COAST ROCK LOBSTER

WEST COAST ROCK LOBSTER STATUS Very poor – about 3% of pristine abundance . AVERAGE CATCH 2009-2012 ~ 2 300 t ISSUES Concerns about increases in poaching Past attempts at achieving recovery hardly successful But there are signs of a short-term improvement

ABALONE

ABALONE STATUS Bad and getting worse AVERAGE CATCH 2009-2012 . AVERAGE CATCH 2009-2012 ~ 100 t (legal) ISSUES Poaching dwarfs legal take – by a factor ~ 10 If poaching continues at present levels, which are NOT sustainable, resource will be commercially extinct in a decade

SQUID

SQUID STATUS A little below optimal AVERAGE CATCH 2009-2012 ~ 9 000 t . AVERAGE CATCH 2009-2012 ~ 9 000 t ISSUES Recent low availability

SOUTH COAST ROCK LOBSTER

SOUTH COAST ROCK LOBSTER STATUS Optimal . AVERAGE CATCH 2009-2012 ~ 330 t ISSUES Would prefer fishery-independent survey to be available as well as CPUE to index abundance

HORSE MACKEREL

HORSE MACKEREL STATUS Probably underutilised AVERAGE CATCH 2009-2012 . AVERAGE CATCH 2009-2012 ~ 35 000t ISSUES Recent low availability

KINGKLIP

MONK

KINGKLIP AND MONK STATUS Kingklip now recovered from past longline overharvest Monk “OK” – also increasing . AVERAGE CATCH 2009-2012 Kingklip ~ 2 800t Monk ~ 7 300t ISSUES How many kingklip stocks Monk status unclear in absolute terms

PEI TOOTHFISH

PEI TOOTHFISH STATUS Probably above optimal AVERAGE CATCH 2009-2012 . AVERAGE CATCH 2009-2012 ~ 250t ISSUES Previous estimates about the impact of the initial illegal catch seem to have been too large

OVERALL SUSTAINABILITY SUMMARY Recent annual catch (t) Status Hake 135 000 GR Sardine 95 000 ORA Anchovy 200 000 GR+ West coast lobster 2 300 RED Abalone 100 RED- Squid 9 000 GR- South coast lobster 330 GR Horse mackerel 35 000 GR- Kingklip 2 800 GR Monk 7 300 GR- PEI Toothfish 250 GR

RESOURCES NOT COVERED VIEWED OVERALL Round herring GR+ Sole GR- Tuna (international ) ORA (var) Many line fish species RED+ VIEWED OVERALL Offshore resources OK Inshore resources IN TROUBLE (poaching and excess effort)

ASSOCIATED SA FISHERIES ISSUES ECOSYSTEM CONSIDERATIONS Bycatch controls (inshore trawl fishery) (sharks) Food for marine predators (birds) Habitat concerns MPAs More to preserve some pristine habitat than to improve fisheries yields Effort limitation mechanism for inshore fisheries

ASSOCIATED SA FISHERIES ISSUES MANAGEMENT/GOVERNANCE CHALLENGES Ageing research staff Rapidly changing Ministers and senior staff Recent organisational shortfalls Research vessel lengthy non-availability Suspension of observer programme (MSC requirement) Delayed rights re-allocation process Little progress in reducing abalone/lobster poaching

ASSOCIATED SA FISHERIES ISSUES RIGHTS ISSUES Secure long term rights Needed to provide conservation incentive Flawed fixed period basis in Act needs correction Re-distribution – are paper quotas avoidable? Small scale policy Little existing spare capacity amongst resources Have expectations ben unrealistically raised? Absence of detail, particularly regarding compliance systems

THE INTERNATIONAL HORIZON FISHERIES vs ENVIRONMENT DEPTS Poor RFMO performance (allocation issue). Will the UN step in? RECOVERING DEPLETED STOCKS With inexact science, will industries sacrifice now for future gains? Upward trend in the fisheries in the developed western world. Will a rising real cost of fuel be the primary determinant? ECOLABELING Raising the bar vs applicability in the developing world. Will this conflict lead to implosion? SCIENTISTS vs MANAGERS Pre-agreed decision rules (MPs) vs Flexibility/negotiation Which will win? A continued risk of “too little too late”? 31

Thank you for your attention With thanks for assistance in slide preparation from: Liam Furman and in developing the plots themselves: Anabela Brandao Carryn de Moor Jean Glazer Susan Johnston Rebecca Rademeyer