Global Crisis in an Integrated Region Context

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Presentation transcript:

Global Crisis in an Integrated Region Context George P. Zanias Athens University of Economics and Business

Outline Global crisis: the roots Financial, economic and employment crisis The Global impact The transmission to the region The regional impact The policy responses

Global Crisis: the Roots Financial System: a mean to an end. But... Greedy Bankers Complacent regulators Global economic imbalances Hyper-consumption and twin deficits in the US Large savings in BRIC, Emirates, Japan Huge current account deficits in emerging markets

Global Crisis: the Roots …and the ignition: US subprime market …following up from: food and fuel crisis

Implications for the Real Economy Bank Liquidity Access to credit Cost of credit Uncertainty Consumption Investment Savings Employment Unemployment Savings Demand Output

Global Impact: Growth Projections

Global Impact: Industrial Production and Trade Projections

The transmission to the Region Through Uncertainty Through trade, the banking system, FDI Open door trade policies and contraction of export markets Reliance on foreign banks who reduced/cut lending to local subsidiaries Reduced volumes of FDI

Western Banks in Eastern Europe

BSEC: Current Account Deficits (% GDP)

Regional Impact: Financial markets

Regional Impact: EU and Emerging Economies (EC + EBRD forecasts)

Regional (BSEC) Growth Forecasts (EBRD, Greece: EC)

Policy Responses Cleaning banks (toxic assets, liquidity) Monetary policy (lower interest rates) Fiscal policy (demand stimulus packages) Employment and SME policies Safety net (social policy, precautionary savings)

But: One size does NOT fit all (The regional context) Heavy dependence on foreign banks Interest rate support for currencies Heavy dependence on FDI New protectionism (credit and trade) Lack of means for stimulus packages and larger informal sector in crisis situation

…and some advantages Possible benefits from foreign stimulus packages Higher activity by IFIs Access to cheaper funds Investment projects to boost demand SME packages

Regional level response Avoid protectionist measures Coordinate possible financial and fiscal policies BSTD Bank initiatives

Thank you