Public Opinion and Political Behaviors Unit IIB Public Opinion

Public Opinion The attitudes, perceptions, and viewpoints individuals hold about government and politics Influenced by political culture and political socialization Skewed by limited political education and efficacy Shaped by government, interest groups, and mass media

Measurement of Public Opinion Development of Polls Straw Polls Asked same question to large number of people Unreliable due to no cross-section of general population George Gallup’s Ideas Sampling Represent general population and randomized Valid questions Clear, fair, unbiased, not misleading Control of poll Tone of question, basic knowledge of issues Analysis Provide sampling errors, show time and place of poll Exit Polls Public opinion surveys to determine electoral winners Push Polls Misleading poll questions to push a certain choice/candidate/issue

Measuring Public Opinion Public opinion polls are most reliable measurement of public opinion Measured Qualities Intensity of beliefs Real wants and needs Constant or changing opinions Consensus or polarized over issues Reliable? Who conducts the poll? What is the sample size? Large sample size? Small sample size? Population sample? Randomized sample? Representative sample? Time of poll? Relevant to current issues? Methodology? Consistent measures? Sampling error? Low margin of error? Within -/+ 3%? Clarity of questions? Unbiased? Unambiguous?

Sample Poll Examples Do you favor or oppose taxes? Do you favor or oppose taxes as a means to national security? Do you favor or oppose Senator Smith, who voted to raise taxes last session? Do you favor or oppose a state income tax of 7%?

Political Trust Government is a “necessary evil” Major shifts in public opinion with major events Pearl Harbor Vietnam 9/11 Hurricane Katrina Great Recession

Confidence in Institutions American public consistently confident on military American public consistently pessimistic of Congress

Political Ideologies A consistent set of political beliefs Develop based on economic, political, and social issues Political ideologies may change over time

Political Ideologies Radical Liberal Moderate Conservative Reactionary Rapid fundamental changes; extreme methods such as revolution Liberal Supports political and social reforms; government regulations; minority support; equality Moderate More tolerant; shares liberal and conservative beliefs Conservative Support social and economic status quo; reluctant for change, and only gradual change; less government; liberty Reactionary Return to previous or historical system; extreme methods for accomplishment

Political Ideologies Based on Personal and Economics Issues Pure Liberal Economic regulation, ensure individual liberties Tend to be young, college-educated, Jewish or secular Pure Conservative No economic regulation, regulate morality Tend to be older, high incomes, white, Midwest Libertarians No economic regulation, ensure individual liberties Tend to be young, college-educated, white, higher incomes, secular, West Populists Economic regulation, regulate morality Tend to be older, poor education, low-income, religious, female, South/Midwest

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