(April, 2001-September, 2002) JISAO Climate Impacts Group and the

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Presentation transcript:

Forecasting the Long-Range Implications of the 2001 Drought for the Columbia River Basin (April, 2001-September, 2002) JISAO Climate Impacts Group and the Department of Civil Engineering University of Washington October, 2001 Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier

Hydrologic Characteristics of the Columbia Basin Avg Naturalized Flow The Dalles Elevation (m)

Pacific Decadal Oscillation El Niño Southern Oscillation A history of the PDO A history of ENSO warm warm cool 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Effects of the PDO and ENSO on Columbia River Summer Streamflows Cool Cool Warm Warm

Overview of Long-Range Forecasting Methods and Long-Range Forecasts for Water Year 2002

Overview of Modeling Linkages Observed Meteor. Data Optimization or Simulation Global Climate Models Water Resources Models Hydrology Models streamflow temp precip wind downscaling Regional Climate Models water demand

Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Model

Time Line for 12-month Lead Time Retrospective Forecasts Climate Forecast Estimated Initial Conditions via observed met. data Forecast Ensemble Lead time = 12 months

Experimental Forecasts for 2002 Based on Resampled Observed Driving Data 2002 Forecast Construction Details: Hindcast hydrologic state for August 1, 2001 based on observed weather data VIC driving data from August 1- Sept 30 is taken from 15 observed water years from 1949-2000 associated with winter ENSO neutral conditions in the tropics. This produces 15 forecast ensembles from Oct, 2001 to September, 2002

Raw streamflow forecast ensemble at The Dalles compared to 50-year “observed” min, max and mean monthly simulated streamflow. All ENSO neutral. Highest Observed Observed Long Term Mean Lowest Observed

Summary of raw streamflow forecast ensemble compared to 50-year “observed” min, max and mean monthly simulated streamflow {whiskers show 90th and 10th percentiles of forecast} Natural Flow at The Dalles

Cool PDO/ENSO Neutral Raw Forecast

Experimental Climate Model Driven Forecasts for 2002 2002 Forecast Construction Details: Hindcast hydrologic state for August 1, 2001 based on observed weather data VIC driving data from August 1, 2001- February 28, 2002 are taken from 20 climate global climate model ensembles. VIC driving data from March 1- September 30, 2002 are based on median 1953 meteorological data This produces 20 forecast ensembles from Oct, 2001 to September, 2002

Climate Model-Based 20-member streamflow forecast at The Dalles 1953 driving data for March-Sept

Summary of raw streamflow forecast ensemble compared to 50-year “observed” min, max and mean monthly simulated streamflow {whiskers show 90th and 10th percentiles of forecast}

Effects to System Storage Retrospective Forecast Method

and System of Dams and Reservoirs Included in ColSim Model Columbia River Basin and System of Dams and Reservoirs Included in ColSim Model Storage Reservoirs Run-of-River Dams ColSim includes about 95% of the basin’s hydropower, and simulates simplified reservoir operations at 1995 level of development.

Simulated System Refill for Several Historic Drought Years and Observed Refill for 2001 1977 streamflow sequence Expected Storage following 1977 drought Observed Storage, 2001

Trends in Regulated Peak Flow at The Dalles Completion of Major Dams

Forecast System Storage: Oct, 2001- Sept, 2002 Normal Winter Energy is met in 3 out of 15 simulations (20% reliability) full Observed System Storage Sept 1, 2001 Obs. 1977-1978 refill sequence Observed System Storage April 1, 2001 empty

Summary of System Storage Simulation {whiskers are 10th and 90th percentiles} 1977-1978 reference refill

Ensemble Average Energy Shortfalls from ColSim Associated with Streamflow Forecast

Conclusions Drought conditions in 2001 will increase the likelihood of below average streamflows in 2002 due to reduced soil moistures. Limited summer refill in 2001 will produce relatively high vulnerability to capacity-related hydro system shortfalls in winter 2002, and will likely also prevent complete reservoir refill in summer 2002. Normal winter energy production from the hydro system in the ColSim reservoir model is shown to be about 20% reliable in the simulations, with most shortfalls occurring in Jan and Feb. Complete reservoir refill is unlikely in summer 2002. The aftermath of the 2001 drought and the west coast power crisis puts an interesting emphasis on winter weather conditions in the context of meeting PNW winter power demand in 2002. Best case would be warm, wet conditions in mid winter (low power demand, high winter runoff). Worst case would be very cold conditions, which would produce low runoff (even for wet conditions) and high power demand.