Lars-Erik Cederman and Luc Girardin Center for Comparative and International Studies (CIS) Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETH) Advanced Computational Modeling of Social Systems

2 Agenda ###

3 ABM & Traffic: History 1950er –James Lighthill, Univ. of Manchester Traffic flow modeled as fluid –General Motors Research Group modeled automobiles as individual units 1970er –Rainer Wiedemann, Univ. of Karlsruhe explored complex psychological behavior

4 ABM & Traffic: History 1990er –Kai Nagel and Michael Schreckenberg Simple psychological rules: The drivers have a preferred speed The drivers keep a safe distance There are random disturbances

5 Critical density

6 Hysteresis

7 Example: Nagel-Schreckenberg Model Start demonstration

8 Activity-based demand Travel plans for each traveler based on typical activities Albatross TU Eindhoven & Ministerie van Verkeer & Waterstaat, NL

9 Microscopic models 2. Generation Microscopic, but with activity-based demand Ilumass Unis Bamberg, Dortmund, Köln & Wuppertal, RWTH Aachen, DLR, Bundesministerium für Bildung & Forschung, Deutschland Transims Los Alamos National Lab (UC) & IBM, USA

10 Learning models The agents learn from their experience and adapt their travel plans BAB-NRW Uni Duisburg/Essen, Ministerium für Verkehr, Energie und Landesplanung des Landes NRW, Landesbetrieb Straßen NRW, Germany

11 Example: UrbanSim UrbanSim is a simulation model for integrated planning and analysis Developed at the Univ. of Washington, Seattle Features decision-making by households, businesses, developers and governments

12 Example : ILUTE Integrated Land Use Transportation Modeling from Toronto

13 ILUTE continued

14 ILUTE continued

15 Alpine tourism

16 Alpine tourism (cont.)

17 PEDSIM