Andrew Turner, Pete Inness, Julia Slingo

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Click to edit Master title style Timeseries of dynamical and precipitation indices Black: observations; RGB: ensemble members for each start date case.

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Presentation transcript:

Andrew Turner, Pete Inness, Julia Slingo The role of the basic state in the ENSO-monsoon relationship and implications for predictability Andrew Turner, Pete Inness, Julia Slingo

Motivation Asian summer monsoon affects more than 2 billion people in India, China and the rest of Southeast Asia. Regional agriculture reliant on the timing, duration and intensity of the ASM – GCMs increasingly used to predict these details. State of equatorial Pacific SSTs long regarded as an important predictor of the monsoon (e.g. Charney and Shukla, 1981). Coupled GCMs generating mean climate closer to observations are more likely to correctly simulate the interannual variability of tropical precipitation (Sperber and Palmer, 1996).

The model & datasets HadCM3 3.75lon x 2.5lat (~T42). 100 year integration. L30 used rather than L19 - more realistic intraseasonal tropical convection (MJO) and precip response to high SSTs (Inness et al., 2001; Spencer & Slingo, 2003). ERA-40 Reanalysis (1958-1997). CMAP for tropical precipitation 1979-1997; Xie and Arkin, 1997. All –India Rainfall (AIR) gauge dataset; Parthasarathy et al., 1994.

What’s wrong with the model? Summer DMI lag-correlated with Nino-3 SSTs

Mean summer surface temperature HadCM3 mean summer (JJAS) differences with ERA-40

Mean summer (JJAS) 850mb winds HadCM3 differences with ERA-40

Mean summer (JJAS) precipitation HadCM3 differences with CMAP

Heat flux adjustments Traditionally used in older models (eg HadCM2) to prevent climate drift; HadCM3 does not have this problem. Heat flux adjustments used here to study the effect of mean state error on the monsoon-ENSO system. Devised by Inness et al. (2003) to investigate the role of systematic low-level zonal wind and SST errors on the MJO. Coupled model run for 20 years, Indian and Pacific SSTs within 10S-10N relaxed back to climatology. Anomalous heat fluxes generate a mean annual cycle which is applied to a new 100 year integration (HadCM3FA).

Heat flux adjustments Annual Mean Large fluxes (up to 186Wm-2 at 120W) into the cold tongue. Much smaller (~30W.m-2) over Maritime Continent and Indian Ocean. Standard deviation of cycle Small annual cycle apart from upwelling region off African coast.

Improvements to the mean state HadCM3FA mean summer (JJAS) surface temperature differences with HadCM3 HadCM3 differences with ERA-40

Improvements to the mean state HadCM3FA mean summer (JJAS) 850hPa winds differences with HadCM3 HadCM3 differences with ERA-40

Improvements to the mean state HadCM3FA mean summer (JJAS) precipitation differences with HadCM3 HadCM3 differences with CMAP

The monsoon-ENSO teleconnection Lag-correlation of summer (JJAS) DMI with Nino-3 SSTs Stronger and better timed teleconnection with flux adjustments.

The monsoon-ENSO teleconnection Lag-correlation of summer (JJAS) Indian rainfall with Nino-3 SSTs Indian rainfall shares similar teleconnection pattern. ERA-40 has poor representation when compared to gauge dataset. Stronger and better timed teleconnection with flux adjustments. Monsoons feed back on Pacific system to further intensify ENSO.

The monsoon-ENSO teleconnection HadCM3 HadCM3FA Composite evolution of equatorial Pacific total SSTs during El Nino 10 warm events composited from each model integration. Warmest waters (absolute SSTs) are further east, past the dateline. Convection and hence the rising branch of the Walker circulation is repositioned. Warmer mean state means that even weak El Ninos in HadCM3FA may drive the teleconnection. See Turner et al. (2005)

The effect of climate change summer (JJAS) 850hPa wind differences: 2xCO2-1xCO2 HadCM3 HadCM3FA

The effect of climate change summer (JJAS) precipitation differences: 2xCO2-1xCO2 HadCM3 HadCM3FA

The effect of climate change summer (JJAS) surface temperature differences: 2xCO2-1xCO2 HadCM3 HadCM3FA

The teleconnection Lag-correlation of summer (JJAS) Indian rainfall with Nino-3 SSTs

Future ENSO? irregular period biennial period

Summary Current climate: Flux adjustments, whilst having some drawbacks, can help correct mean state and have beneficial effect on monsoon predictability. Stronger teleconnection; more realistic Walker circulation & El Nino development. Flux adjustments highlight the danger in assuming a linear system, anomaly forecasting etc. Future climate: Tendency to stronger monsoons in future climate scenario, irrespective of flux correction. The sign and timing of the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection may not be robust. Flux adjustment raises questions relating to the nature of ENSO in future climate.