Current verification results for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE at DWD

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Presentation transcript:

Current verification results for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE at DWD Ulrich Damrath & Ulrich Pflüger

Outlook What happened during last year concerning model development? 12.12.2007: Gust diagnosis (changing basic wind level for diagnostics from 30 to 10m) 12.03.2008: Calculation of 2m temperature (changing z0 to 2 cm) 23.07.2008: Changes in the convection scheme to avoid unrealistic high precipitation values Do we see these changes when looking at the verification results? Comparison of results for different seasons Comparison of COSMO-DE and COSMO-EU using traditional verification methods Diurnal cycles for different elements Frequency distriutions of errors depending on forecasted values Upper air verification An unexpected verification pitfall COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

Diurnal cycles of surface weather elements, Summer 2007, Start 00 UTC COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

RMSEs and BIASes, Summer 2007, Start 00 UTC COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

Frequency distributions of BIASes, COSMO-EU, vv=06, Summer 2007, Start 00 UTC COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

Frequency distributions of BIASes, COSMO-DE, vv=06, Summer 2007, Start 00 UTC COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

Frequency distributions of BIASes, COSMO-EU, vv=15, Summer 2007, Start 00 UTC COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

Frequency distributions of BIASes, COSMO-DE, vv=15, Summer 2007, Start 00 UTC COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

RMSEs and BIASes, Summer 2007, Start 12 UTC COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

Diurnal cycles of surface weather elements, Autumn 2007, Start 00 UTC COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

RMSEs and BIASes, Autumn 2007, Start 00 UTC COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

RMSEs and BIASes, Autumn 2007, Start 12 UTC COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

Diurnal cycles of surface weather elements, Winter 2007/2008, Start 00 UTC COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

RMSEs and BIASes, Winter 2007/2008, Start 00 UTC COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

RMSEs and BIASes, Winter 2007/2008, Start 12 UTC COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

Diurnal cycles of surface weather elements, Spring 2008, Start 00 UTC COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

RMSEs and BIASes, Spring 2008, Start 00 UTC COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

RMSEs and BIASes, Spring 2008, Start 12 UTC COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

Diurnal cycles of surface weather elements, Summer 2008, Start 00 UTC COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

RMSEs and BIASes, Summer 2008, Start 00 UTC COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

RMSEs and BIASes, Summer 2008, Start 12 UTC COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

RMSE of Tmax 2m September 2006 - August 2007, COSMO-DE, vv=18, and vv =42, Start 00 UTC COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

RMSE of Tmax 2m September 2007 - August 2008, COSMO-DE, vv=18, and vv =42, Start 00 UTC Introduction of new diagnosis for T2m COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

Diurnal cycle of observed and forecasted T2m- COSMO-EU, Summer 2007, Start 00 UTC COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

Diurnal cycle of observed and forecasted T2m- COSMO-EU, Summer 2008, Start 00 UTC COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

Diurnal cycle of observed and forecasted T2m- COSMO-EU, Summer 2007 and 2008, Start 00 UTC COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

Frequency distributions of T2m-BIASes, COSMO-EU, vv=11, Summer 2007, Start 00 UTC COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

Frequency distributions of T2m-BIASes, COSMO-EU, vv=11, Summer 2008, Start 00 UTC COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

Frequency distributions of T2m-BIASes, COSMO-DE, vv=11, Summer 2007, Start 00 UTC COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

Frequency distributions of T2m-BIASes, COSMO-DE, vv=11, Summer 2008, Start 00 UTC COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

Diurnal cycle of observed and forecasted Tdew 2m - COSMO-EU, Summer 2007, Start 00 UTC COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

Diurnal cycle of observed and forecasted Tdew 2m - COSMO-EU, Summer 2008, Start 00 UTC COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

Diurnal cycle of observed and forecasted Tdew 2m - COSMO-EU, Summer 2007 and 2008, Start 00 UTC COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

Diurnal cycle of observed and forecasted wind speed 10m - COSMO-EU, Summer 2007 and 2008, Start 00 UTC COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

Diurnal cycle of observed and forecasted mslp - COSMO-EU, Summer 2007 and 2008, Start 00 UTC COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

Diurnal cycle of observed and forecasted precipitation - COSMO-EU, Summer 2007 and 2008, Start 00 UTC COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

Diurnal cycle of observed and forecasted Gusts 10m - COSMO-EU, Summer 2007 and 2008, Start 00 UTC COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

The effect of new diagnosis of T2m on COSMO-EU upper air verification results 00 UTC January - August 2007 January - August 2008 Temperature vv=48h COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

The effect of new diagnosis of T2m on COSMO-EU upper air verification results 12 UTC January - August 2007 January - August 2008 Temperature vv=48h COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

An unexpected verification pitfall: Frequency distriution of cloud cover for high clouds, COSMO-EU, Summer 2007, start 00 UTC, v=15, classification for forecasted values COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

An unexpected verification pitfall: Frequency distriution of cloud cover for high clouds, COSMO-EU, Summer 2007, start 00 UTC, v=01, classification for forecasted values COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

An unexpected verification pitfall: Frequency distriution of cloud cover for high clouds, COSMO-EU, Summer 2007, start 00 UTC, v=15, classification for observed values COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

An unexpected verification pitfall: Frequency distriution of cloud cover for high clouds, COSMO-EU, Summer 2007, start 00 UTC, v=01, classification for observed values COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

An unexpected verification pitfall An unexpected verification pitfall?: BIAS of relative humidity, COSMO-EU, Summer 2007, start 00 UTC, v=00, vv=12, vv=24, vv=36, vv=48 COSMO GM 2008 Cracow

Thank you for your attention! Are there any questions? COSMO GM 2008 Cracow