10 Public Opinion and Political Socialization Pollsters use Google search results to track interest in the 2012 presidential candidates, Governor Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama. Zhang Jun/Newscom

10.1 Public Opinion As early as 1824, one Pennsylvania newspaper tried to predict the winner of that year's presidential contest, showing Andrew Jackson leading over John Quincy Adams. But public opinion research did not really emerge as a science until the 1930s, following the publication of Walter Lippmann's book Public Opinion in 1922. As political scientists gained interest in public opinion in politics and other walks of life, different methods to capture it were tried. The survey was the primary method. The popular magazine Literary Digest was a pioneer in the use of the straw poll, an unscientific survey used to gauge public opinion, with initial success. That success ran out, however, when the magazine in 1936 predicted the defeat of President Franklin D. Roosevelt, who actually won in a landslide. It later became clear that the upper middle class had been overrepresented in the sample of Americans the magazine had surveyed. What the public thinks about a particular issue at a particular time. Short term Changes rapidly Can be measured Public opinion polling then is the thermometer by which opinions are measured.

Earliest Public Opinion Research 10.1 Earliest Public Opinion Research Polling to predict winner of elections (1824 – PA newspaper) Polling to discover public opinions Walter Lippmann's Public Opinion – call to learn more about what the public thinks. Wrote a book observing public opinion was limited in spite of its importance Literary Digest Magazine (1916) Straw poll pioneer though unscientific Unsuccessfully predicted Landon over FDR in 1936. Sample, timing (too early) and self-selection errors (highly motivated sent cards back) As early as 1824, one Pennsylvania newspaper tried to predict the winner of that year's presidential contest, showing Andrew Jackson leading over John Quincy Adams. But public opinion research did not really emerge as a science until the 1930s, following the publication of Walter Lippmann's book Public Opinion in 1922. As political scientists gained interest in public opinion in politics and other walks of life, different methods to capture it were tried. The survey was the primary method. The popular magazine Literary Digest was a pioneer in the use of the straw poll, an unscientific survey used to gauge public opinion, with initial success. That success ran out, however, when the magazine in 1936 predicted the defeat of President Franklin D. Roosevelt, who actually won in a landslide. It later became clear that the upper middle class had been overrepresented in the sample of Americans the magazine had surveyed.

The Gallup Organization 10.1 The Gallup Organization George Gallup Founder of modern day polling Correctly predicted results of 36’ election Expanded research to study public opinion about politics and gave his newspaper clients a money-back guarantee that his predictions were more accurate than Literary Digest. 1940’s led to increased use of polling, sophistication and polling firms http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx Newspapers—like the Chicago Daily Tribune held by President Harry S Truman with the famous "Dewey Defeats Truman" headline that got the 1948 presidential election predictions wrong—probably wished they'd hired a pollster named George Gallup. Gallup wrote his dissertation on how to measure the readership of newspapers at the University of Iowa. He later expanded his research to include public opinion about politics. Soon businesses and politicians were using polling to discover what the market wanted. The Gallup Organization continues to predict the winners of presidential elections.

Designing the Survey & Sample 10.2 Determining the content and phrasing of the questions Wording is crucial as questions can have bias "Push polls“ unscientific designed to change your opinion by providing negative information about a candidate that might cause you to vote against them Selecting the sample Population – entire group to be measured Random sampling – equal chance of being selected problematic because not every area is the same Stratified sampling – researchers divide population into several sampling regions. Before pollsters can ask anyone anything, they must ask themselves a number of critical questions first. When it comes to the content and phrasing of the poll, special care must be taken in constructing the question; differently phrased questions could lead to different answers. Especially in politics, sometimes the intent of the poll is to skew the results by negatively phrasing the question. These are called push polls, and they might ask a respondent: "If you knew Candidate X beat his wife, would you vote for him?" Reputable pollsters avoid push polls. Once the questions are selected, pollsters must determine the population whose attitudes they want to gauge. If it's simply the population at large, pollsters might use a random sampling. If they're looking at specifics in income, family size, or ethnicity, they might use stratified sampling, which is based on U.S. Census data that provide the number of residences in an area and their location.

Contacting Respondents 10.2 Contacting Respondents Telephone polls Most frequent Random digit dialing survey most common type Tracking Polls – daily phone surveys to monitor impact of short-term campaign strategies In-person interviews Exit polls High rate of completion Can measure body language Internet polls Scientific polls versus unscientific Web polls Despite the increase in cell phones and decrease in landlines, telephone polling is still the chief form of polling used in surveys, especially during campaign season. The most common type of telephone poll is the random digit dialing survey, in which a computer selects a phone number for dialing. Sometimes campaigns use tracking polls, in which a small sample of people are polled every 24 hours. These allow campaigns to measure short-term developments and the effects of certain campaign strategies.

10.2 Analyzing the Data Data gathered from the poll must be analyzed for meaning. This step reveals the implications of the data for public policy or for political campaigns. The data are crunched by computers, which may further break down the information by subgroups. This allows campaigns to see how their candidate is faring among women versus men, or in a certain age group. Once the data have been analyzed, the results are generally reported. This could be done by the media or directly by a campaign. Reveals implications for public policy and political campaigns Data analyzed by computers Subgroups of population, such as men versus women, age groups, or political ideology, may be analyzed Reporting the data News organizations or campaigns

Shortcomings of Polling 10.3 Shortcomings of Polling Polls may have several shortcomings that create inaccuracies. These include: •survey errors •not having enough respondent options to reflect public opinion on an issue •polling those who lack the information necessary to accurately respond •the inability to measure the intensity of public opinion on an issue •the public's lack of interest in political issues Survey Error Limited Response Options Lack of Information Difficulty Measuring Intensity Lack of Interest in Political Issues

Survey Error 10.3 Margin of error Sampling error Because polls are based on a sample that's intended to reflect the general public, the results are close but not exact. Polls allow for a margin of error. Typically, the margin of error in a sample of 1,000 people is plus or minus about 4%. So if 52% of the people in a sample of 1,000 say they plan to vote for Candidate X, pollsters can predict that between 48 to 56 people support this candidate. Another type of survey error is the sampling error. This occurs when pollsters fail to sample all elements of a population. For example, the poor and the homeless are generally underrepresented in polls. Margin of error Natural errors in statistical measurement Sampling error Happens when a pollster draws an improper sample

Limited Respondent Options 10.3 Limited Respondent Options There are problems with limited response options in polls. Respondents who feel very strongly about an issue or are somewhat neutral about it may not be able to adequately—or accurately—respond to a poll that offers only yes/no or approve/disapprove options. For that reason, some pollsters—including the American National Election Studies—use a feeling thermometer style of question, in which respondents rate from 0 to 100 their feeling on a given prompt. Yes/No (Approve/Disapprove) May not give respondents sufficient room to answer "Feeling thermometer" Respondents rate feelings 0—100

Lack of Information 10.3 Filter questions Depending on the issue, respondents may not have enough background information about an issue to accurately answer poll questions. In these cases, especially if the poll is about a complex policy or budgetary issues, the pollster may first ask a filter question to determine how much a respondent knows or has thought about the issue. Based on this response, up to 20% of respondents could be excluded from the rest of the poll. Most people have opinions about personal or moral issues, such as drugs, crime, or abortion. When asked questions about these areas, respondents give fewer "no opinion" or "don't know" responses. Filter questions Gauge how much respondents know about or have thought about an issue Responses to personal questions/moral value questions Feelings stronger about some issues

Difficulty Measuring Intensity 10.3 Difficulty Measuring Intensity Another shortcoming of polls is that they can't measure the intensity of a respondent's feelings. A person might say yes to a question about absentee ballot laws but not care that much. On the other hand, a person who responds to a question about the war on terror may have very strong feelings. Issues with strong feelings, such as: Big government Death penalty Support for the war on terrorism Smaller issues, such as: Electoral College Absentee ballot laws

Lack of Interest in Political Issues 10.3 Lack of Interest in Political Issues Many people have a difficult time forming an opinion on policies that don't appear to affect them directly or aren't connected to a moral value question. This is especially true with Americans and foreign policy. Domestic policies, such as those affecting health care, bank bailouts and employment are more likely to generate Americans' interest. Many people lack an opinion on certain policies. Policies that do not affect people directly Policies that do not involve moral values Foreign policy Less likely to generate interest Domestic policy More likely to generate interest

Forming Political Opinions Political Socialization 10.4 Forming Political Opinions Political Socialization The first step in forming opinions occurs through a process known as political socialization. Demographic characteristics—including gender, race, ethnicity, age, and religion—as well as family, school, and peers, all affect how we view political events and issues. The views of other people, the media, and cues from leaders and opinion makers also influence our ultimate opinions about political matters. Political Socialization The process through which people acquire their political beliefs and values Demographic Characteristics Family, Peers, and School The Mass Media Cues from Leaders or Opinion Makers Political Knowledge

Demographic Characteristics 10.4 Demographic Characteristics Gender Women historically more liberal than men Race and Ethnicity Differences among and within races and ethnicities Age - From birth to 5 our parents have the greatest influence in our political behavior as adults Religion – one of the best indicators of public opinion The process through which people acquire their beliefs and political values is called political socialization, and demographics can play a key role. Gender is significant; historically, women have been more liberal than men. Women are more likely to have positive views of educational or environmental programs and negative views toward war and military intervention. The views of African Americans and Hispanics on a variety of issues are often quite different from those of whites, particularly when it comes to the environment and health care. Older people support programs like Medicare, while younger voters tend to resist higher taxes to pay for it. Conversely, older people tend to resist increases in taxes to pay for schools. And religion is unquestionably a factor in political view formation, especially on hot-button social issues like abortion rights.

Family, Peers, and School 10.4 Family, Peers, and School Young children begin absorbing political views from their parents at an early age. As they grow into their elementary and middle school years, children become more influenced by their peers. Groups such as the Girl Scouts of America recognize the power of peers and have developed programs to give girls a favorable view of politics. Schools also play a significant role in political socialization. Public school students may start the day with the Pledge of Allegiance. In college, students are taught critical thinking skills to help them hone their political views. Activity: Ask your students to consider the role of schools as agents of political socialization. Have them identify the numerous ways in which schools socialize children politically. Examples might include the pledge of allegiance, education about our political system, the inculcation of patriotism and nationalism, and so on. Family influence Children learn political beliefs at an early age. Peers are influential in middle or high school Political socialization in school

The Mass Media 10.4 Traditional news sources Americans are turning away from them. Non-traditional news media TV talk shows Talk radio Online magazines Blogs Cable and Internet Often skewed Instead of using news broadcasts on the major networks and daily newspapers as the major source of information, Americans are turning to TV talk shows, talk radio, online magazines, and blogs. Cable and Internet news sources are often skewed. According to one study, Americans who get most of their news from cable news outlets such as MSNBC and Fox News are less knowledgeable about political issues than people who don't pay attention to political news.

Cues from Leaders or Opinion Makers 10.4 Cues from Leaders or Opinion Makers Political leaders use the media to influence the political views of Americans. One of the reasons Americans may be swayed with relatively little effort is the general lack of deep conviction with which most Americans hold many of their political beliefs. And though the president may not be the influencer-in-chief, he can be very persuasive on political matters by using his "bully pulpit." Political leaders use media to influence public. President uses media as a “bully pulpit.”

10.4 Political Knowledge Political knowledge and political participation Have a reciprocal effect on each other Americans' level of civic knowledge Lower than 50 years ago Gender gap Also affected by education, number of children, and marital status Political knowledge and political participation go hand in hand. Without knowledge about the political system, people can't effectively participate. The more they participate, the greater their understanding about public affairs. Most Americans have a low level of civic knowledge—lower, in fact, than it was 50 years ago. How do you respond to college students today knowing less about civics than high school students did 50 years ago? Americans know even less about foreign policy and geography. And there's a gender gap. Women know less than men about politics, unless the issues are of special interest to women. Political knowledge is also affected by factors such as education, number of children, and marital status.

Toward Reform: The Effects of Public Opinion on Politics 10.5 Toward Reform: The Effects of Public Opinion on Politics Politicians pay close attention to public opinion. They tailor their campaigns or drive policy decisions based on what they know about the public's views. This makes the public much more of a critical player in national and international policy. Focus on public opinion is due in part to the rise in the number of polls being conducted, analyzed, and reported. Political scientists say this shows how the public's views, registered through public opinion polls, can affect policy. The public has become more of a critical player in national and international politics. Polling a key part of that involvement.